The two best teams in the Group of 5 face off on Friday as the 10-1 Memphis Tigers host the 10-1 Cincinnati Bearcats.
This game has major postseason ramifications with both teams possibly facing off in the AAC Championship game next week and the winner being in good position to break into the New Year's Six with a Cotton Bowl appearance.
We break down the odds with our best bets and predictions for this conference battle.
CINCINNATI BEARCATS AT MEMPHIS TIGERS (-11.5, 57.5)
QUICK HITTER
Both of these programs can score early, with Memphis averaging 7.6 points per game in the opening quarter and Cincinnati averaging 7.3. But the Bearcats have the edge in first-quarter defense, allowing 4.0 ppg in that frame while the Tigers give up 6.6.
There is plenty of value in taking the underdog to get on the score board first.
PICK: Team to score first - Cincinnati +137
FIRST HALF BET
Memphis averages a whopping 23.4 ppg in the first half but Cincinnati holds opponents to 10.8 ppg in the first 30 minutes. In their last three contests the Bearcats have allowed just 3.3 ppg before halftime.
As good as Memphis' offense is, they aren't very efficient in the red zone. The Tigers score touchdowns on just 64.5 percent of their trips into their opponents 20-yard line. And Cincy has a terrific red-zone defense, allowing just 19 touchdowns in 43 red-zone attempts.
Even if Memphis marches down the field they could have a difficult time coming away with seven points. Take their 1H team total Under.
PICK: 1H team total - Memphis Under 17.5
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Cincinnati has struggled on offense recently. That said, they still tend to get on the scoreboard before their opponents, having scored first in six of their last eight contests.
While Memphis has an explosive offense, they have been the first team to score in just one of their last six games. Despite not scoring first the Tigers still won five of those contests.
Don't be surprised if the team that scores first doesn't win this game.
PICK: Team scoring first wins the game - No (+162)
FULL GAME TOTAL
This is a classic battle between a high-scoring offense and lockdown defense. Memphis has one of the top offenses in the country, putting up 40.9 ppg but Cincinnati holds opponents to just 19.9 ppg. The Bearcats defense has allowed more than 24 points in just two games this season and one of those contests was against Ohio State.
Memphis has a terrific ground game led by Kenneth Gainwell (1294 rushing yards and 6.8 yards per carry) but they'll be up against a stout Cincy run defense. The Bearcats are limiting opponents to 133.7 rushing yards per game and just 3.5 yards per carry.
On offense the Bearcats have been an absolute mess recently. Quarterback Desmond Ridder was the AAC Rookie of the Year in 2018 but he's played like hot garbage over his last five games. During that span he's completed just 48 percent of his passes for 121.8 passing yards per game and two of those contests were against the worst defenses in the country. We like the Under.
PICK: Under 57.5
FULL GAME SIDE
Cincinnati should be able to limit Memphis' running game and can do some damage of their own on the ground. Led by running backs Michael Warren and Gerrid Doaks the Bearcats have rolled up 197.3 rushing yards per game and will be going up against a Memphis run-defense allowing 166.4 yards per game.
Cincy is also one of the best teams at forcing turnovers with 23 takeaways this season. And Memphis has turned the ball over 16 times on the year, including losing nine fumbles.
The Tigers are on a roll having gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games but 11.5 points is a lot to spot a Bearcats squad with such a strong defense. Count on the Bearcats to slow down the Tigers enough to cover this spread.
PICK: Cincinnati +11.5
