The New York Rangers host the Florida Panthers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday evening. Both sides are coming off hard-fought wins in their last series and both teams match up extremely well in all aspects of the game. Wednesday's SGP gives the Panthers the advantage for a couple of reasons.
Here are my free NHL picks for May 22.
Panthers vs Rangers same-game parlay picks May 22
- Panthers moneyline
- Aleksander Barkov to score
- Under 8.5
(+501 at FanDuel)
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Best Panthers vs Rangers SGP for Wednesday
Panthers moneyline
Aleksander Barkov to score
Under 8.5
The New York Rangers have relied on its reputation as power play merchants to cruise to reach the Eastern Conference Final, but that is not going to continue to be a sustainable way to win games as we get deeper into the playoffs and the refs start to swallow the whistles more. This postseason, at 5-on-5, the Florida Panthers outrank the Rangers in expected goals for per 60 minutes, expected goals against per 60 minutes, and expected goal differential per 60 minutes.
Not only are the Panthers the superior team both offensively and defensively, but I would argue they also possess the edge in net, albeit a slight one. Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky allowed two or fewer goals in each of the final five games of the previous round against the Boston Bruins, going 4-1 over that stretch with a commanding .921 SV% and 1.62 GAA.
On the other hand, New York goaltender Igor Shesterkin has allowed three or more goals in three consecutive starts, going 1-2 with a .894 SV% and 3.38 GAA over that stretch. If we are backing Florida to win this game, then we obviously need some of its goal-scorers to take advantage.
Enter forward Aleksander Barkov, who co-leads the team in even-strength goals this postseason. Barkov has now scored five goals over the past seven games, a trend that is likely to continue against the Rangers, a team he has scored three goals against over the past four meetings.
Finally, we can bump this same game parlay up to a +501 return when including the Under 8.5 alternate total. While Shesterkin hasn’t been as dialed in as normal recently, I still don’t think he’s allowing more than four goals in this matchup (with one of those hopefully coming from Barkov).
There have been eight or fewer total goals scored in each of the past 10 meetings between these two teams.
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