England and France will finish their 2026 World Cup campaigns in Saturday's third-place game after both fell short in the semifinals.
France suffered its first defeat of the tournament in a 2-0 loss to Spain, while England was eliminated by Argentina in a narrow 2-1 result. Neither country expected to be playing for bronze, but the lack of championship pressure could produce one of the most entertaining matches of the weekend.
That has often been the case in this fixture. Sixteen of the last 20 World Cup third-place games have finished Over 2.5 goals, while both teams have scored in 14 of those 20 matches.
Below, we break down the latest England vs. France correct score odds before revealing our favorite World Cup picks for Saturday, July 18.
England vs France correct score odds
The correct-score market expects a competitive game, with no individual outcome carrying a probability higher than 12%.
| Correct score |  |
American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw 1-1 | 12% | +733 |
 France wins 2-1 |
11% | +809 |
| Draw 2-2 | 9% | +1011 |
 England wins 2-1 |
8% | +1150 |
| France wins 1-0 |
7% | +1329 |
| France wins 2-0 |
7% | +1329 |
| France wins 3-1 |
7% | +1329 |
| France wins 3-2 |
6% | +1567 |
| England wins 1-0 |
5% | +1900 |
| France wins 3-0 |
5% | +1900 |
| Draw 0-0 | 4% | +2400 |
| England wins 3-1 |
4% | +2400 |
| England wins 2-0 |
3% | +3233 |
| England wins 3-2 |
3% | +3233 |
| Draw 3-3 | 3% | +3233 |
| France wins 4-1 |
3% | +3233 |
| England wins 3-0 |
2% | +4900 |
| France wins 4-0 |
2% | +4900 |
| France wins 4-2 |
2% | +4900 |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi. Correct-score markets apply to regulation time only.
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England vs France correct score prediction
France wins 3-1
Kalshi probability: 7% | American odds: +1,329
France's scoreless semifinal loss should not overshadow how difficult it has been to break down throughout the knockout stage.
Les Bleus recorded clean sheets against Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco before Spain finally ended their run. France also has the pace and finishing quality to punish an England side that has conceded in every elimination match, allowing six goals across its four knockout appearances.
England should still have enough attacking talent to contribute. The Three Lions have scored in every match of the tournament and found the net against DR Congo, Mexico, Norway, and Argentina during the knockout rounds. However, they have also become increasingly vulnerable as games have opened up.
The third-place setting should encourage both teams to play with more freedom than they showed in their semifinals. England can land a punch, but France's deeper collection of attacking match-winners gives it the better chance of pulling away once the game stretches.
England vs France correct score alternatives
France wins 3-0
Kalshi probability: 5% | American odds: +1,900
A 3-0 France victory is the alternative for anyone who believes England's semifinal disappointment will carry into Saturday.
France entered the semifinal without allowing a goal in the knockout stage, blanking Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco in three consecutive matches. Spain eventually broke through, but Les Bleus still limited their opponents throughout most of the tournament and should be capable of rediscovering that defensive structure.
England has played four demanding knockout matches and may rotate its lineup after falling one victory short of the final. If the Three Lions struggle to match France's intensity or leave space while chasing the game, Les Bleus have enough speed to turn a controlled victory into a comfortable one.
Draw 2-2
Kalshi probability: 9% | American odds: +1,011
The 2-2 draw represents the opposite game script, but it may be the most natural alternative based on the history of the World Cup third-place game.
Sixteen of the last 20 bronze-medal matches have produced at least three goals, with both teams scoring in 14 of them. That trend makes sense: The pressure of elimination is gone, managers can rotate freely, and players are often more willing to take risks in their final appearance of the tournament.
England has scored in every knockout match, while France possesses several attackers capable of creating a goal without requiring sustained possession. If neither side maintains its semifinal-level defensive discipline, this could quickly turn into an end-to-end contest that neither team manages to control.
More World Cup picks and odds
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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