Best WNBA Player Props Today: Cloud Rains on Assists Prop

Prop bet #1: Wilson owns the glass

The Las Vegas Aces were second-best in their loss to the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday, and I expect a backlash here against an Indiana Fever team that played a nail-biter in Los Angeles last night.

That makes A’ja Wilson an even more obvious target on the WNBA props market. I’m predicting a big outing for Wilson as a scorer and rebounder, but it’s her threat on the boards that stands out to me as a must-bet prop.

She’s averaging 12 rpg through her first three contests of 2024, including 13 rebounds against the Mercury this week, and she’ll have a size edge against a lot of the Indiana line-ups.

Wilson has finished with two or more offensive boards in each game this season and there should be a steady diet of misses to vacuum up on the defensive end against a Fever team that’s shooting 43% from the field this season — and carrying some fatigue into this matchup.

As a double-double machine, Wilson is always likely to keep this prop in play and I’m wagering on her athleticism to be the X-factor that wins the rebounding battle for Las Vegas.

A'ja Wilson prop: Over 10.5 rebounds (-102 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Mabrey misfires

With the Chicago Sky in retooling mode, Marina Mabrey is heading for a career year as their backcourt focal point. But I’m fading the Mabrey points prop today against a fearsome Connecticut Sun defense.

The Sun, who allowed the fewest points per game in the WNBA last season, have a knack for limiting easy looks, led by DiJonai Carrington on the perimeter and the trio of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, and Brionna Jones in the paint. Connecticut has held all four opponents under 85 points so far in 2024, and that spells trouble for Mabrey, who’s only shooting 31% from beyond the arc.

She knocked down eight of her 13 shots on the way to 21 points against the New York Liberty on Thursday but was held to a combined 11-for-33 shooting across her first two outings of the year.

It should be loud at Wintrust Arena tonight for the Sky’s home opener, but I see the visitors spoiling the party — and that starts with forcing the ball out of Mabrey’s hands. 

Marina Mabrey prop: Under 17.5 points (+100 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Cloud rains dimes

At 3-1, the Phoenix Mercury feel ahead of schedule this season, given their offseason roster shake-up and the huge blow of losing Brittney Griner to a toe injury.

They’ve mainly hit the ground running because Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper have been instant hits alongside Diana Taurasi — and I’m looking for Cloud to lead the charge for Phoenix again in Saturday’s nightcap.

The Mercury have won three in a row while going past 85 points in two of those games, and it’s hard to ignore Cloud’s ability to stuff the stat sheet. She’s coming off back-to-back games with 10 assists, and Phoenix’s array of bucket-getters are a great fit for her elite playmaking. 

Against the banged-up Dallas Wings, Cloud should be able to push the pace, and her minutes could be in the mid-30s again here with the Mercury sweating on guard Sug Sutton’s elbow injury.

This line for the Cloud assists prop jumps out as a little low, given that she averaged 6.2 dimes per game last year with the Washington Mystics and now has the luxury of superior shooters around her in Phoenix.

Natasha Cloud prop: Over 6.5 assists (-114 at FanDuel)