Until recently, the notion of a competitive Chicago Sky and New York Liberty game in late July seemed far-fetched. The Sky have been a dominant force all season and are among the WNBA title betting favorites again. The Liberty, on the other hand, have struggled since the All-Star break, losing four out of five.
In a great surprise to many, the Liberty showcased great poise, passion, and urgency as they defeated the Sky last Tuesday 83-80 during a significant final stretch of the season, which sets up tonight's matchup, set near double-digits in favor of the Sky.
Is it too much chalk? Find out with our Liberty vs. Sky NBA betting picks for Friday, July 29.
Liberty vs Sky odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened up last evening and has hovered around a predictable-9.5 and -10 in favor of the Chicago Sky. The total opened at 164.5 and remained the same at most sportsbooks.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Liberty vs Sky predictions
- Prediction: Liberty +9.5 (-102)
- Prediction: Over 165 (-110)
- Best bet: Ionescu Over 20.5 points (-115)
Predictions made on 7/29/2022 at 8:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Liberty vs Sky info
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
• Date: Friday, July 29, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Liberty vs Sky betting preview
Key injuries
Liberty: Michaela Onyenwere F (Ques), Betnijah Laney G (Out).
Sky: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 5-0 in Liberty’s last five games following an ATS win. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sky.
Liberty vs Sky picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
After a promising June that saw the New York Liberty win seven out of 11 games, they enter tonight as winners of a disappointing three out of their last 10. While that’s nothing to celebrate, they did, however, squeeze out their most impressive win of the season, defeating the Sky last Saturday. As it currently stands, the Sky and Liberty are almost deadlocked in ATS for the season. The Liberty are at 14-13, while the Sky are at an even 14-14.
The Liberty aren't among anyone's favorites to be in the mix for a WNBA championship by the time September rolls around, but were able to combat Candace Parker's 21 points and 11 rebounds with solid performances from Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard, who combined for 33 points and 18 rebounds. Still, Ionescu, currently Top 5 in WNBA MVP odds, is always a scary proposition for any team to deal with on any given night.
With nine games remaining, New York is two and a half out of a playoff spot. I believe they will be ramped up and ready to make a push with the end of the season quickly approaching. The Liberty are 3-7 in their last 10 games — partly due to a brutal schedule that pit them against the WNBA’s elite (Aces and Sun) in four of those matchups. The chance of them defeating the Sky in back-to-back games is slim, but another competitive matchup isn't out of the equation.
You must put together 48 minutes of intense, focused basketball to hang with the Sky. To the Liberty's credit, after getting shellacked by the Sky in May, the next two matchups between the two teams were decided by a total of five points.
Ionescu hasn't scored 20 or more points in four consecutive games, which ties her longest streak of the season without meeting that mark. I predict the drought will end: She will have fresh legs as the Liberty haven't played since last Saturday. Combine that rest with a sense of urgency in a key game, and I like New York to cover.
Prediction: Liberty +9.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Sky must feel like last Saturday's game against the Liberty got away from them. It's fair to wonder if they were underestimating New York, looking ahead on the schedule.
The Liberty are a team that lives and dies by the three. When they shoot over 39% from 3-point range, they’re 10-0. When they don't, they’re 0-17. And they’ll shoot them in bunches, averaging the most attempts per game (27.9). The question is, will they make them against the Sky’s tough perimeter defense?
Many bettors have been reluctant to trust the Liberty offense this season with their most important player from last year, Betnijah Laney, out with knee surgery. Although Laney continues to recover, that shouldn't deter bettors from considering the Liberty's potential on any night.
We know the Sky will show up after losing consecutive games to the Liberty and Aces. Currently averaging 85.6 points per game with a balanced attack, scoring is never an issue for them. But I believe the Liberty will hang tough in this one, leaning on the explosiveness of Ionescu and the interior scoring of Howard to push this game to the Over.
Prediction: Over 165 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
The Liberty's season has been a roller coaster ride, with some ugly low points and a few highlights. Ionescu would like to end that ride on a high note, recently telling reporters that the Liberty will continue to play hard, chip away, and try to secure victories to make the playoffs.
The Sky have a reputation for having the best perimeter defense in the league, but players of Ionescu's caliber are very tough to slow down. The 24-year-old is already one of the game's best players and can score with anyone, posting 17.2 points on 35% shooting behind the arc and 94% from the line. She’s already scorched the Sky this season, scoring 27 points on 56% shooting on June 12.
For the year, she's passed the 21-point mark 11 times and will be focused for a big game during a pivotal portion of the season where every win is of critical importance.
Pick: Ionescu Over 20.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
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