USFL Week 7 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Sweet Revenge for Stallions

A battle of USFL heavyweights starts off the Week 7 action, as the Birmingham Stallions take on the New Orleans Breakers. Find out our picks for that game plus the other three contests on this holiday weekend slate.

Last Updated: May 25, 2023 9:35 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Birmingham Stallions Alex McGough USFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It was another week of surprises and upsets in the USFL. Only one favorite even won their Week 6 game straight-up, let alone covered the spread. The underdogs are barking strong over the last few weeks, so let’s see if it continues. 

Play gets underway for Week 7 on Saturday with one game in Birmingham, AL and one in Canton, OH. The action continues on Sunday with one in Memphis, TN and another in Canton. 

After a 2-2 record last week on picks, we are 13-11 on the season.

Check out my USFL picks and predictions for Week 7.

USFL picks for Week 7

Picks made on 5/25/2023 at 9:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Week 7 USFL odds and predictions

Birmingham Stallions vs New Orleans Breakers

Saturay, 4:00 p.m. ET, FOX

Birmingham Stallions New Orleans Breakers
-1.5 (-110) Spread +1.5 (-110)
-125 Moneyline +105
Over 45.5 (-110) Total Under 45.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 25.

The first rematch of the season will see two of the early season favorites in the USFL Championship odds facing off for the second time in five weeks. In the first matchup, the New Orleans Breakers upset the Birmingham Stallions in a 45-31 shootout. The Breakers outgained the Stallions 483-253 in total yards, and running back Wes Hills ran for 191 yards and three touchdowns.

The Stallions handled business last week, defeating the Michigan Panthers 27-13 and improving to 4-2 on the season. They got another magical performance from quarterback Alex McGough, who threw for 133 yards and two touchdowns on 19 of 24 passing and ran for 82 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. But they struggled to guard the big wideout, Trey Quinn, on defense.

The Breakers suffered their second consecutive defeat after losing to the Philadelphia Stars, 16-10. After averaging 35.0 points per game in the first three weeks of the season, New Orleans has only averaged 13.3 points per game over the last three weeks. Quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson has really struggled over the last three weeks, including throwing a pick six last week that was ultimately the difference in the game.

Birmingham is going to get to play this game at home, and I have a hard time believing they will fall to the same team at home for the second time in the same season. McGough is outplaying Bethel-Thompson right now, and they will make sure Hills does not destroy them on the ground. The Stallions are playing better right now and will avenge their earlier loss.

Pick: Stallions -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Philadelphia Stars vs Pittsburgh Maulers

Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1

Philadelphia Stars Pittsburgh Maulers
pk (-110) Spread pk (-110)
-110 Moneyline -110
Over 39 (-110) Total Under 39 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 25.

The battle of Pennsylvania is back again after the Pittsburgh Maulers took Round 1 back in Week 3, defeating the Stars, 21-13. In that game, the Stars outgained the Maulers in total yards, 235-202, but could not finish off drives. The Stars also turned the ball over three times, while only forcing one turnover by Pittsburgh. 

Philadelphia was able to pull off the upset of New Orleans last week thanks to their great defense. They not only held the Breakers to 10 points, but also 256 total yards. They forced two turnovers, including a pick six. However, they yet again failed to score an offensive touchdown, which means they have not scored an offensive touchdown in 164 minutes and 21 seconds of game time. 

The Maulers fell to 2-4 on the season after getting shut out 22-0 by the Memphis Showboats last week. Things were really ugly for Pittsburgh, even though they got a solid defensive performance by outgaining Memphis 283-223 in total yards. They turned the ball over three times and allowed a 109-yard missed FG return for a touchdown right at the end of the first half.

With both teams having serious difficulties in scoring touchdowns on offense, it is hard to bet anything but the Under here. The last matchup was relatively high scoring for these two teams and still totaled less than the number available for this matchup. It is very possible neither team reaches 20 points.

Pick: Under 39 (-110 at DraftKings)

Houston Gamblers vs Memphis Showboats

Sunday, 2:00 p.m. ET, USA/Peacock

Houston Gamblers Memphis Showboats
-3 (-110) Spread +3 (-110)
-155 Moneyline +135
Over 43.5 (-110) Total Under 43.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 25.

When these two teams met back in Week 3, both were 0-2 and desperate to get their season going with a victory. That led to quite the shootout, and a 30-26 win for the Houston Gamblers. Houston won on a touchdown in the final 30 seconds after blowing a 13-point lead at the start of the 4th quarter.

The Gamblers pulled off a nice upset win last week over the New Jersey Generals, 16-10, to win their fourth consecutive game, a streak that started with these Showboats. They did so with great defense again, especially in the secondary. Houston allowed only 177 yards passing and forced an interception to go along with stuffing last season’s leading rusher at 38 yards on 10 carries. 

The Showboats lost this matchup in Week 3, but have won every game since then. They completely dominated the first half against Pittsburgh, and their newfound defense seems to be legit. They have only allowed 20 points in the three games since allowing 30 to these Gamblers. 

This is the toughest game on the slate to pick because both teams are red-hot, and both have the ability to create a high-scoring game. However, I think the safest play is the Under. Houston has played great defense themselves recently, and both defenses will come to play after allowing so many points in the last matchup.

Pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Michigan Panthers vs New Jersey Generals

Sunday, 5:30 p.m. ET, FS1

Michigan Panthers New Jersey Generals
+6.5 (-110) Spread -6.5 (-110)
+210 Moneyline -250
Over 40 (-110) Total Under 40 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 25.

When these two teams first matched up in Week 3, the Panthers were 2-0 and looking like a legit contender in the USFL. However, New Jersey handled them with ease, beating them 28-13. De’Andre Johnson played the entire game at quarterback and dominated, with 180 yards passing and two touchdowns to go along with 98 yards rushing and a touchdown.

Michigan has now dropped four consecutive games dating back to this contest, and has lost by an average margin of 16 points per game. Last week against Birmingham was actually the best they have looked since Week 2 of the season. They were only down three points entering the fourth quarter before giving up a couple of touchdowns from crazy McGough scrambles.

The Generals regressed again last week, and the roller-coaster season continues. They decided not to play Johnson at all at quarterback, and Kyle Lauletta had some struggles. He went 17-for- 30 for 177 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It really affected the run game, as the Generals only tallied 69 yards rushing on 19 carries.

If the Generals play Johnson at quarterback and commit to him for the whole game, then I think they should be able to handle business here. However, I do not trust that to be the case, and won’t be surprised at all if we see both behind center in this game. To me, that means I need to take the points with Michigan, who should be able to build off some positivity from last week.

Pick: Panthers +6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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