USFL Week 7 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Stallions Keep Rolling

There are only four weeks remaining in the USFL regular season, and the Birmingham Stallions are the only undefeated team. We like the Stallions win again, led by running back Bo Scarbrough. Find out who else we're betting in our Week 7 USFL picks.

May 25, 2022 • 13:24 ET • 4 min read
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The USFL has made it to the seventh week of the regular season without folding — kudos to them! Two more weeks of regular-season action remain in Birmingham, Alabama, before the playoffs begin on the doorstep of the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio.

The Birmingham Stallions are atop the standings as the league’s only undefeated team. The New Jersey Generals are the North Division’s top representative at 5-1. The only other team above .500 is the New Orleans Breakers.

Two teams at .500 (Philadelphia Stars and Tampa Bay Bandits) will battle for playoff rights. As playoff position becomes the primary focus, who will survive and who will get sent home early? Check out our picks and predictions for Week 7 of the USFL.

USFL picks for Week 7

Picks made on 5/25/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Week 7 USFL predictions

New Jersey Generals vs Tampa Bay Bandits

Saturday, May 28, 12:00 p.m. ET, USA 

New Jersey Tampa Bay
-4 Spread +4
-165 Moneyline +145
Over 42.5 Total Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 25.

The Generals have a case for being the top team in the league. They’ve dominated both lines of scrimmage en route to a 5-1 record. True, they didn’t look at their best in a narrow 26-25 win over the Gamblers in Week 6, but they did what they needed to do and pulled out the close win.

They massively outgained the Gamblers (358 to 227 in total yards) and more than doubled them in time of possession, so the scoreboard didn’t reflect what would happen most times those teams meet on the gridiron. The Generals rank first in total offense, averaging 365.3 yards per game. They rank second in total defense, limiting opponents to 249 yards per game.

Outgaining the opposition by over 100 yards per game is not a bad recipe for success! The Generals have the most impressive statistical profile of any team in the league. Of foremost importance is dominating both lines of scrimmage. New Jersey is first by a wide margin in both rushing offense and rushing defense.

The Bandits haven’t been able to get much of anything going on either side of the ball. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu is a bright spot and he’s coming off a monster performance against the Stars, where he threw for 333 yards and 4 TDs in a loss.

That being said, the Stars have the worst defense in the league and the Bandits have looked woeful on both sides of the ball for most of the year. They’re being outgained by 45 yards per game, hardly the sign of a team ready to spring an upset against a complete team like the Generals.

I’d recommend laying the points up to 7 with the Generals if they had quarterback De’Andre Johnson. He left with an undisclosed injury in the first quarter a week ago and did not return. Luis Perez has played plenty this year and has been fine, but it still is a slight downgrade in my opinion.

I still like the Generals at this number against one of the league’s most overvalued teams.

Pick: Generals -4 (-110 at FanDuel)

New Orleans Breakers vs Michigan Panthers

Saturday, May 28, 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1

New Orleans Michigan 
-6 Spread +6
-260 Moneyline +210
Over 41.5 Total Under 41.5

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 25.

The Breakers are one of the better teams in the league, sitting at 4-2 after six weeks of play. Kyle Sloter is the leading passer in the league and leads an offense that ranks second in total yards per game. The defense has been solid throughout the year, ranking third while allowing only 261.2 total yards per game.

Jeff Fisher’s Panthers haven’t been having the time of their lives. Michigan is currently at the basement of the standings, tied with the Maulers and Gamblers for the worst record at 1-5.

I made a joke in last week’s column that Fisher is on a quest to become the all-time losingest coach in two leagues: the NFL and the USFL. The Panthers are a bizarre case.

Their statistical outlook isn’t bad at all, as they’re outgaining teams on a per-game basis (314.2 ypg on offense, 244.8 ypg on defense). The defense is the league’s best, allowing both the fewest points and fewest yards per game. One big detriment has been the quarterback play, where Shea Patterson has fallen well short of expectations after being named the first overall pick in the USFL player draft.

This team has not been able to throw the ball when needed, and that will be trouble against this stout Breakers defense. I’m targeting the Under here, as both defenses are among the league’s best. The Panthers rank first with only 14.4 points per game allowed, while the Breakers are close behind at only 16.6 points per game allowed.

Totals are up across the board after a relatively high-scoring Week 6, but I believe that’s an overreaction.

Pick: Under 41.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Birmingham Stallions vs Pittsburgh Maulers

Sunday, May 29, 2:00 p.m. ET, FOX

Birmingham Pittsburgh
-12.5 Spread +12.5
-630 Moneyline +450
Over 41 Total Under 41

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 25.

The best team in the league against the worst team in the league — what could go wrong! As noted earlier, the Generals are the most impressive team in the league from a statistical standpoint. Games are not won in the box score (to bettors’ chagrin), and the Stallions have been the best team in the league in the standings as they sit at a perfect 6-0.

J’Mar Smith has been the answer at quarterback, throwing for 184 yards per game on 6.7 yards per attempt. He’s thrown eight touchdowns and has added another 116 yards and 2 scores with his legs. New signing Bo Scarborough, a former Alabama Crimson Tide star, looked impossible to tackle while accumulating 105 yards on 16 carries a week ago.

While Skip Holtz has the Stallions primed for a playoff push, Kirby Wilson has the Maulers set up for embarrassment. Pittsburgh is managed only 258.3 yards per game and has failed to implement Wilson’s ground-heavy offensive attack, averaging only 90 yards per game on the ground.

Despite the lopsided nature of this game, I still think the bookmakers have made this spread too wide. The public perception of these two teams is about as far apart as can be — the Stallions have a perfect record, while the Maulers have been downright bad. That being said, this is still the USFL and we have a very small sample to work with.

I’m hesitant to lay this many points with any team in any matchup. The Maulers showed signs of life by outgaining a good Breakers team a week ago. Quarterback Vad Lee has looked good in two weeks as the starter, throwing for over 180 yards per game while also being a threat with his legs.

Pick: Maulers +12.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Philadelphia Stars vs Houston Gamblers

Sunday, May 29, 6:00 p.m. ET, Peacock

Philadelphia Houston
-4 Spread +4
-200 Moneyline +170
Over 43.5 Total Under 43.5

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 25.

The Stars are a team that I was high on going into the year. Bart Andrus drafted a team with familiarity as the foremost concern, selecting many players that he’s coached in the past in other spring leagues. Andrus’ pass-happy offensive scheme stocked with players he’s coached before seemed like a recipe for success in a league with such little cohesiveness.

At 3-3, Philadelphia still has a chance to make some noise come playoff season. I’m not as much of a believer as I was to start the season, as the results have been shaky. A 35-28 win over the Bandits a week ago was big for playoff implications, but Philly may have been fortunate to come away victorious. Tampa Bay won the yardage battle 411 to 263 but turned the ball over 3 times, and the Stars capitalized on those chances.

The Stars have been downright dreadful defensively, allowing 360.4 yards per game. A weak rush defense is the primary culprit (193 ypg allowed), but the secondary is also vulnerable. Jordan Ta’amu proved that last statement true by throwing for 333 yards and 4 TDs against the Stars a week ago. For as bad as the Stars have been on that side of the ball, they haven’t been the worst defense in the league.

That acclaim goes to their counterparts in this matchup, the Houston Gamblers. Houston is allowing 380.8 total yards per game and is been gashed through the air, allowing 40 more passing yards per game than any other team in the league. These are the two worst defenses in the league by a wide margin.

Only one other team is allowing over 300 yards per game, yet both of these squads are closer to allowing 400 yards than they are 300. There’s a wide gap between them and everyone else on that side of the ball. I see the Over as the obvious play here given the futility of both defenses.

Pick: Over 43.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

USFL parlay

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