The women's draw at Roland Garros has been blown wide open.
Aryna Sabalenka entered the French Open quarterfinals as the clear betting favorite, but her stunning defeat on Tuesday vs. Diana Shnaider has completely reshaped the championship picture.
With the World No. 1 eliminated, Marta Kostyuk has surged to the top of the Women's French Open odds board at +130, narrowly ahead of Mirra Andreeva (+200).
Latest French Open women's singles odds
Odds as of 6-3.
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Sabalenka elimination changes everything
Aryna Sabalenka looked poised to capture her first French Open title after entering the tournament as the betting favorite. The World No. 1 closed around -1000 against Diana Shnaider in the quarterfinals and appeared firmly in control after winning the opening set 6-3 and building a 4-1 lead in the second.
Then everything unraveled.
Shnaider stormed back to win the second set 7-5 before completely dominating the decider 6-0, handing Sabalenka her first bagel set loss since 2024. The stunning turnaround not only eliminated the tournament favorite, but completely reshaped the championship picture heading into the semifinals.
With Sabalenka out and no player shorter than +130 on the odds board, bettors are suddenly looking at one of the most wide-open French Open women's fields in years.
French Open Women's favorites
Marta Kostyuk (+130)
Marta Kostyuk entered Roland Garros as an outsider but now finds herself just two wins away from a maiden Grand Slam title. The Ukrainian has been one of the steadiest performers in the women's draw, highlighted by a quarterfinal victory over compatriot Elina Svitolina that made her the first Ukrainian woman to reach a French Open semifinal.
The market has responded accordingly. Kostyuk sits atop the odds board after a run that has featured aggressive baseline play and impressive composure in pressure moments. The challenge now becomes handling expectations. Chasing a title is one thing. Being expected to win it is another.
Mirra Andreeva (+200)
Mirra Andreeva has quietly become one of the toughest outs on tour, regardless of surface. The 19-year-old has lost just one set through five matches in Paris and enters the semifinals with momentum firmly on her side after a 6-0, 6-3 dismantling of Sorana Cirstea.
The betting market views Andreeva as the clear alternative to favorite Marta Kostyuk, and for good reason. Unlike some young stars still learning how to navigate major tournaments, Andreeva already looks comfortable deep into the second week of a Slam. Another win would send her to the biggest final of her career and make her the new favorite to lift the trophy.
Diana Shnaider (+300)
Few players remaining in the draw have a win that compares to what Shnaider accomplished in the quarterfinals. The Russian stared down elimination against World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka before producing a stunning turnaround, becoming the only semifinalist with a victory over a top seed in Paris.
That result dramatically altered both the tournament and the betting market. Prior to Tuesday, Shnaider was viewed as an outsider. Now she enters the final four with a realistic path to the championship and favorable odds to reach the title match. If confidence matters in Grand Slam tennis, few players will walk onto the court believing more than Shnaider.
Maja Chwalinska (+800)
Every Grand Slam seems to produce one surprise semifinalist, and this year it's Chwalinska. The Polish qualifier has taken full advantage of a draw that opened up around her, stringing together the best run of her professional career to reach the final four.
Her odds reflect the reality that she remains the least proven player left in the tournament. Still, with the top seed eliminated and the draw suddenly wide open, Chwalinska needs only two more wins to complete one of the most unlikely title runs Roland Garros has seen in years.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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