Novak Djokovic is one victory away from history, aiming to become the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to win all four majors in the same calendar year.
Daniil Medvedev contests his third major final. He lost a tight five-setter to Rafael Nadal at this venue two years ago but was convincingly beaten by Novak in Melbourne earlier this year.
Covers Experts' resident tennis expert Tennis Insiders breaks down this Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev match with our US Open men’s final picks.
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev odds
| (1) Novak Djokovic | (4) Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| -250 | Moneyline | +200 |
| -4.5 (-120) | Match Handicap (Games) | +4.5 (-120) |
| 3.5 (Over -138/Under +100) | Total Breaks of Serve | 2.5 (Over -110/Under -125) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of September 11, 2021
US Open men's final betting preview
Novak Djokovic betting breakdown
Djokovic has taken a more scenic route than usual. He’s spent 17 hours 36 minutes on court compared to Medvedev’s 12 hours 2 minutes. Djokovic has lost the first set in four consecutive matches, but he raised his game when needed, matching and eventually surpassing his opponents’ levels. Djokovic will no doubt be ready for Sunday, stating in his press conference “I’m going to treat the next match as if it’s the last match of my career”.
Daniil Medvedev betting breakdown
Medvedev has only dropped one set on his path to the final, his counterpunching skills combined with his big serving proving almost impossible to beat in these quick conditions.
Counter-punchers have traditionally been smaller players with excellent speed and the ability to take the ball early, absorbing their opponent’s pace and redirecting it. Their biggest weakness was often their serve, as being smaller, their inability to generate power compared to taller opponents was a significant disadvantage.
Medvedev has the athleticism and foot speed to do so, along with being 6’6’’, his huge wingspan allows him to retrieve balls deep behind the baseline while his ability to generate power makes his serve extremely difficult to return. He is the new generation of counter-puncher.
US Open men's final matchup preview
There are similarities to this year’s Australian Open final, where Djokovic dropped sets in four consecutive rounds while Medvedev breezed through the draw dropping only two sets. Djokovic found his peak level in the final, however, executing his game plan to perfection.
Medvedev’s return position in this final will be fascinating. In Melbourne, he sat deep, which allowed Novak to display his array of service placement, switching between wide-angled and T serves.
These players have the two best backhands on tour, but Novak’s is stronger, especially in the crosscourt exchanges where he can be the first to change direction and find Medvedev’s weaker forehand wing.
There are plenty of areas where this matchup is close, but the stronger your return game, the bigger the edge. No one has neutralized big serving on hard courts like Djokovic.
US Open men's final pick
- Over 5.5 Breaks of Serve -138
