Arizona State @ Baylor Picks & Props

No doubt that Leavitt has gotten off to a bad start this season. But the ASU QB began the year getting hype as a first-round pick and is coming off a year where he threw for 2,885 yards and 26 touchdowns. This week he faces a Baylor defense that is downright awful. The Bears rank 124th in defensive success rate and 127th in opponent yards per pass attempt. The early-season struggles is just giving us a good number when it comes to his passing Prop. Let's go over a number he eclipsed in nine of his 12 games last season.

Arizona State is winning the redzone battle. They're holding opponents to 2.9 points per quality possession while scoring 4.2 points per quality possession. The offensive line deserves a ton of credit for that, picking up 3.6 line yards per rush as their backs average nearly two second-level yards per carry. Arizona State ranks in the Top 25 in explosive rush rate, and ninth in EPA/run. A Top 15 success rate on the ground will cause major headaches for a Baylor defense that ranks in the Bottom 10 teams in line yards allowed and stuff rate, and the Bottom 20 in rush EPA/play. The Sun Devils also rank 31st in third-down defensive success, while Baylor ranks 115th at converting. Stalled drives on offense and an inability to keep their defense off the field will be the downfall for the Bears.

Sam Leavitt shook off his worst start of the year to throw for two TDs and run for another, as ASU churned out 245 yards rushing on a healthy 5.8 clip and two scores. Baylor got crushed by Auburn to start their year, then barely squeaked by 17th-ranked SMU in double OT, before blowing out Samford.