Portland Trail Blazers Picks
3rd in Northwest
(6 - 3)
Next Game
OKC @ POR Picks
NBA PicksPortland has been off since Saturday, giving head coach Micah Nori time to review film and tighten the bolts on this defense in practice. The Trail Blazers have been excellent at clogging up the key while also not allowing foes to fire from the 3-point arc. The Oklahoma City Thunder have sputtered out of the gates, with their offense sliding well back of the franchise’s usual standards. Injuries to the starting lineup have left OKC to really lean on its defense, resulting in a 3-7 Over/Under record to open the year.
I make Portland closer to a 51% favorite, making the current 45% market price on the Trail Blazers an attractive buy. Chet Holmgren's absence is significant, forcing OKC to rely on Isaiah Hartenstein at center. His lack of perimeter shooting allows defenders to clog the paint, and Donovan Clingan can exploit that by protecting the rim and altering shots.
Williams posted 11, 12 and 13 points in a three-game span with his minutes climbing as high as 31 before blowout wins the past two outings. Williams logged just 19 and 23 minutes in those one-sided games, finished with four and nine points. Given the game script for tonight, Oklahoma City will be in a tighter fight. His projections all sit north of eight points with a ceiling of 9.8 versus Portland.
Since losing fellow guard Ja Morant to injury, Portland point guard Damian Lillard has had to up his playmaking. He’s dished out four or more assists in the five games since Morant went down, including seven helpers in the loss to San Antonio last time out. Lillard’s assist forecasts for tonight all come in above four dimes with a ceiling of 5.6 helpers. My number boils down to 4.9 assists from “Dame Time” tonight.
With two teams leaning on their defenses, there won’t be any easy buckets between the Thunder and Blazers tonight. Kenrich Williams continues to step up for OKC’s offense, with projections flirting with 10 points. Damian Lillard keeps the kickouts coming, hitting open shooters for as many as six assists.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus69% picking Oklahoma City vs Portland to go Over
Total PicksOKC 193, POR 85
OKC @ POR · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Caruso
(SG)
o6.5 Points Scored
7.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
25.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
S. Gilgeous-Alexander
(PG)
u33.5 Points Scored
29.81 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.7
DIFFERENCE
22.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
K. Williams
(PF)
o6.5 Points Scored
8.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.2
DIFFERENCE
21.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
OKC
B. Stirtz
(PG)
o6.5 Points Scored
7.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
18.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Mitchell
(SG)
u19.5 Points Scored
17.62 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
17.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
OKC
A. Mara
(C)
o8.5 Points Scored
9.44 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
13.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
T. Camara
(PF)
u12.5 Points Scored
11.57 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
12.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
R. Williams III
(C)
o5.5 Points Scored
6.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
11.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
S. Cissoko
(SF)
o5.5 Points Scored
5.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Holiday
(PG)
u12.5 Points Scored
12.10 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
9.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Lillard
(PG)
u20.5 Points Scored
18.99 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
8.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
I. Hartenstein
(C)
o8.5 Points Scored
9.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
7.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Avdija
(SF)
o22.5 Points Scored
23.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
2.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Clingan
(C)
u11.5 Points Scored
11.22 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-2.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
S. Henderson
(PG)
o10.5 Points Scored
10.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-2.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. McCain
(SG)
o12.5 Points Scored
12.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
I. Hartenstein
(C)
u10.5 Total Rebounds
8.76 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.7
DIFFERENCE
21.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
OKC
A. Mara
(C)
u6.5 Total Rebounds
6.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
18.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
T. Camara
(PF)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
4.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
15.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
R. Williams III
(C)
u6.5 Total Rebounds
6.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
15.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
OKC
B. Stirtz
(PG)
u2.5 Total Rebounds
1.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
14.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander
(PG)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
3.95 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
8.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
K. Williams
(PF)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
4.93 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Avdija
(SF)
u7.5 Total Rebounds
7.07 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
5.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
S. Cissoko
(SF)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
3.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Lillard
(PG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. McCain
(SG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-1.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
S. Henderson
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
2.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-2.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Caruso
(SG)
u3.5 Total Rebounds
3.38 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Holiday
(PG)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
4.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-12.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Mitchell
(SG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-13.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Clingan
(C)
o10.5 Total Rebounds
10.50 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
I. Hartenstein
(C)
u3.5 Total Assists
3.05 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
19.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
S. Henderson
(PG)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
18.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Lillard
(PG)
o4.5 Total Assists
4.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
16.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Avdija
(SF)
u5.5 Total Assists
5.37 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
15.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
T. Camara
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Caruso
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
8.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Holiday
(PG)
u4.5 Total Assists
4.12 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
8.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. McCain
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander
(PG)
u5.5 Total Assists
5.28 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
R. Williams III
(C)
o0.5 Total Assists
1.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-2.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Mitchell
(SG)
o3.5 Total Assists
3.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-8.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Clingan
(C)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-9.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
K. Williams
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
T. Camara
(PF)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
22.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. Holiday
(PG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
1.87 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
12.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
S. Henderson
(PG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.34 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
12.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
S. Gilgeous-Alexander
(PG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
2.08 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
5.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Lillard
(PG)
u3.5 3-Pointers Made
2.74 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
5.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
OKC
B. Stirtz
(PG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-0.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Caruso
(SG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.28 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-3.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
OKC
A. Mara
(C)
u0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.19 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-5.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. McCain
(SG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
2.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-6.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Avdija
(SF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-7.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Clingan
(C)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-10.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Mitchell
(SG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
K. Williams
(PF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.45 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-11.72%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
OKC @ POR · Trends
Top User Picks
More Picks'boedad' picks Oklahoma City vs Portland to go Over (227.5)
boedad is #1 on picking games that Portland is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.
'OldSchoolSavage' picks Oklahoma City vs Portland to go Over (224.5)
OldSchoolSavage is #4 on picking games that Portland is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'DaBoss80' picks Oklahoma City vs Portland to go Over (224.5)
DaBoss80 is #5 on picking games that Portland is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'jktheoneandonly' picks Oklahoma City vs Portland to go Under (226.5)
jktheoneandonly is #7 on picking games that Portland is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +4450 units on the season.
'greenhouse12' picks Oklahoma City vs Portland to go Over (224.5)
greenhouse12 is #7 on picking games that Oklahoma City is in with a record of (5-3-0) and +3800 units on the season.
'duffer77' picks Oklahoma City vs Portland to go Under (226.5)
duffer77 is #8 on picking games that Oklahoma City is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +3750 units on the season.