Portland Trail Blazers Picks
4th in Northwest
(41 - 40)
Next Game
SA @ POR Picks
NBA Picks
SA -5.5 (-110)
San Antonio is 24-17-1 ATS on the road and 14-12-1 ATS as the road favorite. The visiting team covered the spread in 25 of 45 games when favored by at least 5.5 points, including a 10-7 mark when favored by that many on the road.
Portland was comfortably defeated in Games 1 and 3, and it took a mid-game injury to Victor Wembanyama and a career scoring night from Scoot Henderson to come away with a three-point win in Game 2. Wemby’s return should fuel the Spurs to victory, as they look ahead to Game 5 and a gentleman’s sweep at home.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Steph Castle and 2026 first-round pick Dylan Harper led the Wembanyama-less Spurs to victory in Game 3, and I expect them to stay productive in Game 4.
Castle finished with a 33/2/5 line in Game 3 after posting 30 and 31 in Games 1 and 2. Castle has averaged 34.2 PRA across his last 12 games while cashing the Over on this line eight times.
Harper finished his rookie season with averages of 19.1 PRA, going for at least 17 in 44 of 69 total appearances. He reached that mark in 24 of 38 road games, and he posted a monster 27/10/3 line in Game 3.
Five of six head-to-head matchups between the Spurs and Blazers have gone Under, and at 219 points, I expect that trend to continue in Game 4. With Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama back in action, the Spurs can lock down Portland’s offense and keep this matchup low-scoring.
Wemby delivered 35 points in Game 1 before getting concussed in Game 2 and missing most of the contest. Including that shortened stint on the court, Wemby has averaged 29.7 points across his last 18 games while scoring 28+ 10 times. He’s cashed the Over on this scoring line in five of his last six healthy games.
