Portland Trail Blazers

Picks

You can lay the juice on the over 5.5 assists for Devin Booker at -135—you have a solid edge there, as I price it closer to -230. But you can also consider attacking the alternate line of 7+ assists at plus money in this spot, since Booker’s projection sits just north of seven assists. I feel very confident that, given how the matchups shake out against the Trail Blazers, Booker becomes more of the facilitator while Green takes on the scoring role on Tuesday. Running isolation against Jrue Holiday isn’t a recipe for success, and Booker knows that. He’s a high-IQ player who can shift into a playmaking role when the situation calls for it, and this matchup is one of those spots. We also know that Tiago Splitter’s defensive schemes tend to push Booker toward passing more, because in their only matchup this season, he recorded 14 potential assists—well above his season average of 12.3.

The Phoenix Suns have managed Jalen Green's minutes carefully all season due to an early hamstring injury, but with a playoff spot on the line in the Play-In Tournament, this is a situation where Green should push well past 30 minutes. With Jrue Holiday likely focused on Devin Booker, this sets up as a spot where the Suns can funnel more usage toward Green and let him attack favorable matchups against Portland. Phoenix’s high ball screens—especially with Mark Williams—create a clear advantage here. Against Donovan Clingan’s deep drop coverage, Green will have multiple scoring avenues: he can comfortably pull up from mid-range or use the space to build momentum and attack the rim with his explosiveness. The prop is listed at -105, but I have it closer to -215, which signals a significant edge.

The Trail Blazers have been the NBA’s best defense down the stretch of the regular season. Over their last 10 games, they rank first in both defensive rating and points allowed at just 105.2. Outside of matchups with Denver and San Antonio, they’ve held nine straight opponents under 110.5 points. Phoenix hasn’t been explosive offensively either, ranking 15th in offensive rating over the last 10 games despite facing several atrocious defenses (DAL, CHI, MEM, UTA).

Booker enters the Play-In well rested and ready to log major minutes after sitting out the final two regular season outings. Before that, he was on a scoring tear in his last six showings, averaging almost 32 points and making 2.7 shots from distance with three or more triples in three of those outings. Projections for Tuesday have Booker pegged between 2.0 and 2.4 makes from long range. Given the fact he’s Phoenix’s go-to scorer and his propensity to step up to the postseason pressure (averages 2.3 3PM), I’ll grab the higher return on Over 2.5 3-point makes.

Portland guard Toumani Camara is the Blazers’ biggest outside threat, knocking down 2.7 triples per contest. He faces a drum-tight Phoenix perimeter that allows the second-lowest opponent 3-point rate, giving up only 12.2 makes from distance per game. He scored six, 12 and 13 points over his three meetings with Phoenix, shooting a combined 7 for 24 from outside. Player forecasts range from 10.0 to 13.1 points for Camara tonight, with most models short of his scoring total.

Brooks, who averages around 3.5 rebounds, has hauled in four or more boards in 19 of his last 28 games. That includes four rebounds in a win over Portland on February 3 (as Brooks missed 18 games with a busted hand this winter). Brooks averaged 8.1 rebounding chances during that 28-game span. Brooks played just 21 minutes in the season finale and has been working his way back into form since returning to the lineup at the end of March. He’ll be a full go for this Play-In contest with projections sitting between 3.4 and 5.0 rebounds. 

Phoenix needs either Brooks or Jalen Green to complement Booker to pull off this upset and avoid the Oklahoma City Thunder. Portland is more likely to let Brooks get an advantage than Green. That is to effectively say, betting on Phoenix’s third option is both this best bet and the Suns’ best approach to winning this game.