Cleveland Cavaliers Picks
2nd in Central
(52 - 30)
Next Game
DET @ CLE Picks
NBA Picks
Duncan Robinson o2.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)
The Pistons’ sharpshooter is clicking at 58% from distance in the series, 43% for the playoffs, and has knocked down at least three triples in eight of his 10 postseason outing. Fourteen of his 24 total 3-point shots have come with no defender within at least four feet of Robinson (making nine of those “open” to “wide open” looks). It also helps that Robinson is 6-foot-7 and facing smaller defenders in Donovan Mitchell (6-foot-2), James Harden (6-foot-5), Max Strus (6-foot-5), who struggle to get a hand up on closeouts. His Game 4 forecast call for at least three makes from downtown with a ceiling of 3.6 treys.
Cade Cunningham o9.5 Total Assists (+110)
Part of the problem in Game 3 was that Cleveland couldn’t miss on offense, shooting a sizzling 58% from the field. That forced a Detroit attack to start its possessions off the inbounds, rather than having their defense fuel the offense in transition and from turnovers. The Cavs’ shooting comes back to earth in Game 4 and Cunningham will find himself in his usual spot behind the wheel, pushing pace and creating for teammates in the open floor. His models for Game 4 are divided, ranging from 8.2 to 10.3 assists. Given the unique circumstances on Saturday, I’m leaning toward the high side of Cunningham’s playmaking versus a Cleveland defense that’s 25th in opponent assist rate (64.9%).
Donovan Mitchell o4.5 Total Rebounds (+120)
Donovan Mitchell hauled down 10 rebounds in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ win in Game 3 – tying his second biggest day on the boards all season. Those rebounds weren’t all because Mitchell was feeling extra froggy on the glass, but a byproduct of the Cavs putting extra emphasis on boxing out the Detroit Pistons forwards. Mitchell found himself in position for 17 rebounding chances in Game 3. That’s more than the 16 combined in the first two games which lead to outputs of four and six boards. His Game 4 projections all sit north of the 4.5 O/U, with a ceiling of 5.7 rebounds.
DET +3.5 (-101)
I thought the Cleveland Cavaliers would win Game 3, and they did, but now it’s time to jump back on the Detroit Pistons bandwagon, as I still think they win this series in five games. The Pistons are catching 3.5 points on Monday, and that feels like too many. I make Detroit closer to a 2-point underdog in this spot. The price itself is also appealing because we’re getting +3.5 at only -101 instead of laying the standard -110 juice. Ausar Thompson continues to blow up actions defensively for Cleveland, but it’s the matchups on the other end of the floor that really stand out on film. Whether it’s Tobias Harris in the post, Cade Cunningham attacking in isolation, or Duncan Robinson coming off screens, Detroit’s offense consistently finds ways to hunt mismatches and exploit weaknesses in the Cavaliers’ defense.
Jarrett Allen o12.5 Points Scored (-105)
Jarrett Allen has averaged 20 points across his last two games, and he’s recorded 13+ points in four of his last five games, with the only exception being a two-point dud in Game 1 of the semifinals. Cleveland’s big man has found success against Jalen Duren over the last three seasons. In 11 career matchups with Duren, Allen has averaged 14.6 points. He scored 13+ in seven of those head-to-heads, including four of five at home.
Donovan Mitchell has scored 30+ points in back-to-back games. In five season matchups with the Pistons, he’s averaged 30.8 points and scored 29+ four times. Mitchell has been a more potent scorer at home, and I expect him to come through in a big way as the Cavs look to even up the series.
The Cavaliers built momentum after a win in Game 3, and they can tie the series at two games apiece with a win in front of the home crowd. The home team has won five straight games in this head-to-head matchup, and Cleveland is 31-12 straight up as the home favorite this season.
In 11 head-to-head matchups with Jalen Duren, he’s gone for 13+ points seven times and 8+ rebounds eight times. He’s recorded 13 points and eight rebounds together in four of five at home against Duren.
Tobias Harris has enjoyed a renaissance this postseason, and I expect another big showing in Game 4. Over his last eight, Harris has averaged 22.5 points and 7.5 boards, scoring 19+ in eight straight and corralling 7+ rebounds six times.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus
63% picking Detroit vs Cleveland to go Over
Total PicksDET 245, CLE 146
Top User Picks
More Picks'manomanomano551' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Under (212.5)
manomanomano551 is #1 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (44-24-0) and +13900 units on the season.
'chuluckus' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Under (212.5)
chuluckus is #2 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (43-36-0) and +13400 units on the season.
'88FAN' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Under (212.5)
88FAN is #2 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (25-14-0) and +12200 units on the season.
'mrmrsbears' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Over (212.5)
mrmrsbears is #3 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (8-4-0) and +12450 units on the season.
'merle1858' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Under (213.5)
merle1858 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (40-38-0) and +9700 units on the season.
'Seawep95' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Under (212.5)
Seawep95 is #4 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (40-28-0) and +9700 units on the season.
'kermitfrog' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Over (213.5)
kermitfrog is #5 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (49-31-0) and +10700 units on the season.
'PMaeson' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Over (213.5)
PMaeson is #6 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (35-24-0) and +10700 units on the season.
'Nittanymac5800' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Over (212.5)
Nittanymac5800 is #7 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (47-32-1) and +10200 units on the season.
'sandhog1' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Over (212.5)
sandhog1 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (41-37-1) and +8100 units on the season.
'ThorsHammer' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Over (213.5)
ThorsHammer is #8 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (17-15-0) and +9250 units on the season.
'tvigilante2020' picks Detroit vs Cleveland to go Over (212.5)
tvigilante2020 is #9 on picking games that Detroit is in with a record of (31-27-0) and +8600 units on the season.