Cleveland Cavaliers Picks
2nd in Central
(52 - 30)
Next Game
NY @ CLE Picks
NBA Picks
Evan Mobley o3.5 Total Assists (+105)
Among centers averaging at least 30 minutes in the playoffs, Mobley ranks fifth in assist percentage (25.4) and seventh in usage (18.8).
Cleveland has struggled to move the ball, assisting on just 57.8% of made baskets, but Mobley has consistently gotten teammates involved with four dimes per tilt.
Cleveland is 6-3 when the big man dishes 4+, and Cleveland’s offense averaged 8.1 more points in those contests. This is a favorable line that I’ll bet up to 4.5, as Cleveland should emphasize ball movement to get better looks against New York’s stiff defense.
Donovan Mitchell o2.5 3-Pointers Made (-155)
New York’s interior defense has ceded just 40.2 paint points across the team’s nine-game win streak. As a result, opponents have focused on outside shots and attempted the fourth-most three-pointers (37.1).
Donovan Mitchell is just 11-of-38 from deep over his last five games, but nearly a third of those shots were “open” or “wide open.”
Shot quality has been favorable, and Mitchell has shot 36.8% from deep at home compared to 27.5% on the road this postseason. Mitchell can improve when he returns to Rocket Arena, and I’ll climb the ladder to 3.5 triples.
Mikal Bridges o13.5 Points Scored (-105)
Cleveland’s strategy to ignore Josh Hart backfired in Game 2, as Hart went off for 26 points. After that outburst, Hart will see more defensive attention, leading to less pressure on Bridges.
Over his last seven games, 31.9% of Bridges’ shot attempts have been “open,” with defenders 4-6 feet away, and 15.9% have been “wide open,” with defenders 6+ feet away.
Bridges is shooting a blistering 68.3% on 11.7 shots per game in that span, yet he could see even more open looks. I’m willing to bet this one up to 15.5.
OG Anunoby o14.5 Points Scored (-120)
Who’s turn will it be in Game 3? New York has gotten huge efforts from Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart. Now it’s OG Anunoby’s turn. The athletic forward hasn’t been as active in the offense as he works his way back from tender hamstring but he’s one player who doesn’t shrink in enemy territory. He scores almost two points more per game on the road and has put up efforts of 22, 29, and 29 points in three playoff away games. Projections sit between 16.0 and 17.5 points in Cleveland on Saturday.
Evan Mobley o15.5 Points Scored (-125)
Mobley scored 14 points in the 1H of Game 2 but didn't score again after the break. His usage dipped from 21.4% in the 1H to an embarrassing 5.3% in the final 24 minutes. Yes, the New York Knicks did a better job denying the Cleveland Cavaliers’ bigs. However, Cleveland is at its best when Mobley gets going and it needs to keep the 7-footer involved. Mobley enjoys an uptick in scoring at home and his Game 3 projections sit as high as 18 points.
At least the Cavaliers get to sleep in their own beds before Game 3. Cleveland looks tired, and head coach Kenny Atkinson is outclassed against a loaded Knicks attack and Mike Brown. New York has been excellent on the road, with a 4-1 SU mark as visitors in the playoffs. Mobley had topped his scoring total in five straight games before going MIA in the second half of Game 2 – falling just two points shy of his O/U. He left some points on the table at the foul line, and Cleveland needs to focus on getting him touches, as we’ve seen the Knicks struggle against talented bigs in the postseason. Anunoby scores almost two points more per game on the road and has put up efforts of 22, 29, and 29 points in three playoff away games. Projections sit between 16.0 and 17.5 points in Cleveland on Saturday.
The Knicks offense is a well-oiled machine at this point in the playoffs. With the Cavs blitzing Jalen Brunson, he’s finding open teammates for a ton of assists. OG Anunoby’s energy thrives on the road, and Karl-Anthony Towns is taking plenty of 3-point attempts, coming away with three triples in Game 2. Game models call for 17+ from OG, 7+ dimes from Brunson, and a pair of treys from KAT in a Game 3 win for New York.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus
63% picking New York vs Cleveland to go Over
Total PicksNY 145, CLE 85
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