Cleveland Cavaliers

Picks

Among centers averaging at least 30 minutes in the playoffs, Mobley ranks fifth in assist percentage (25.4) and seventh in usage (18.8).

Cleveland has struggled to move the ball, assisting on just 57.8% of made baskets, but Mobley has consistently gotten teammates involved with four dimes per tilt.

Cleveland is 6-3 when the big man dishes 4+, and Cleveland’s offense averaged 8.1 more points in those contests. This is a favorable line that I’ll bet up to 4.5, as Cleveland should emphasize ball movement to get better looks against New York’s stiff defense.

New York’s interior defense has ceded just 40.2 paint points across the team’s nine-game win streak. As a result, opponents have focused on outside shots and attempted the fourth-most three-pointers (37.1).

Donovan Mitchell is just 11-of-38 from deep over his last five games, but nearly a third of those shots were “open” or “wide open.”

Shot quality has been favorable, and Mitchell has shot 36.8% from deep at home compared to 27.5% on the road this postseason. Mitchell can improve when he returns to Rocket Arena, and I’ll climb the ladder to 3.5 triples.

 

Cleveland’s strategy to ignore Josh Hart backfired in Game 2, as Hart went off for 26 points. After that outburst, Hart will see more defensive attention, leading to less pressure on Bridges.

Over his last seven games, 31.9% of Bridges’ shot attempts have been “open,” with defenders 4-6 feet away, and 15.9% have been “wide open,” with defenders 6+ feet away.

Bridges is shooting a blistering 68.3% on 11.7 shots per game in that span, yet he could see even more open looks. I’m willing to bet this one up to 15.5.  

 

Who’s turn will it be in Game 3? New York has gotten huge efforts from Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart. Now it’s OG Anunoby’s turn. The athletic forward hasn’t been as active in the offense as he works his way back from tender hamstring but he’s one player who doesn’t shrink in enemy territory. He scores almost two points more per game on the road and has put up efforts of 22, 29, and 29 points in three playoff away games. Projections sit between 16.0 and 17.5 points in Cleveland on Saturday.

Mobley scored 14 points in the 1H of Game 2 but didn't score again after the break. His usage dipped from 21.4% in the 1H to an embarrassing 5.3% in the final 24 minutes. Yes, the New York Knicks did a better job denying the Cleveland Cavaliers’ bigs. However, Cleveland is at its best when Mobley gets going and it needs to keep the 7-footer involved. Mobley enjoys an uptick in scoring at home and his Game 3 projections sit as high as 18 points.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks grade out 6th-best in in the NBA with 12.5 offensive boards per game this year.

The Cleveland Cavaliers rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).. This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 4.3 free throws per game (6th-most in the NBA) vs. the Knicks, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

This year, opposing starting SFs have averaged 3.9 3-point attempts per game (3rd-lowest in the league) against the Cavaliers, branding this as a tough matchup.. The least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Knicks.. The Cavaliers have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the New York Knicks.. In regard to getting to the foul line, the New York Knicks's unimpressive 21.8 free throw attempts per game places 8th-worst in the league this year.

The Cleveland Cavaliers rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

The least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Knicks.. The Cavaliers have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the New York Knicks.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the New York Knicks grade out 6th-best in in the NBA with 12.5 offensive boards per game this year.

The Cleveland Cavaliers rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

This year, opposing starting SFs have averaged 3.9 3-point attempts per game (3rd-lowest in the league) against the Cavaliers, branding this as a tough matchup.. The least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Knicks.. The Cavaliers have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the New York Knicks.