Cleveland Cavaliers Picks
2nd in Central
(52 - 30)
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NY @ CLE Picks
NBA Picks
The Cavaliers defense focused on Brunson in Game 2, holding him to 7-of-16 from the field, but he solved that riddle in Game 3, going 10-of-19 from the field and getting to the free throw line 12 times.
Realize, New York has shown a penchant for closing series with firepower. It beat Atlanta by 51 points in a game that was not even that close. The 76ers fell by 30 points. Routs lead to more minutes for McBride, obviously. Thus, he scored 25 points in 29 minutes in that farewell to Philadelphia.
Harden has cleared this prop in the last two games, but topping out at 19 points in Game 3 despite playing 41 minutes is not an encouraging sign. If New York does indeed win its 11th straight game, a blowout feels rather likely. Eight of the Knicks’ last 10 wins have been blowouts. A blowout in a series-clinching game typically cuts into starters’ minutes. Cutting into Harden’s minutes at all should doom his scoring, given he has hardly scored in bunches in this series.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are in full desperation mode against the New York Knicks, trailing 3-0 in the series and continuing to experiment with different coverages and defensive matchups. Nothing has worked so far. We’ve seen Jalen Brunson score 30-plus points in some games and rack up 14 assists in another. In Game 4, I believe Karl-Anthony Towns will be the main beneficiary of whatever defensive approach Cleveland uses to slow down Brunson. The Cavaliers can’t consistently send help from the wings in the Brunson-Towns two-man game because OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have thrived in this series against rotating defenses and on catch-and-shoot opportunities created by Brunson. I expect Cleveland to lean into a more aggressive drop coverage with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and they may simply have to live with the open looks that creates for Towns as a shooter. I price Towns at -185 to clear this total.
I’ll keep riding with the Knicks to close this series out tonight. New York has won 10 straight playoff games, with nine of those victories coming by double digits. They’ve also been ruthless in close-out spots, obliterating the Hawks and Sixers by 51 and 30 points on the road. The Knicks have completely controlled this matchup and shouldn’t ease up against a Cleveland team that's lacking urgency.
The Knicks can attack in a variety of ways, as all five starters are averaging 14+ points.
Cleveland has struggled to move the ball effectively, and New York’s size and rebounding depth have largely neutralized the Cavs’ double-big advantage of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
I expect a comfortable victory, and I’ll bet this line up to 4.5, making it a strong wager at -2.
Cleveland’s defense has allowed opponents to hit 37% of three-pointers. Miles McBride only needs a pair of triples to cash this prop. I’m also willing to take a chance on his 1.5 three-point line at +150.
OG Anunoby is shooting a blistering 50.9% from distance. He can exploit Cleveland’s defensive shortcomings.
New York’s 10-game heater has featured Towns as a key facilitator. His 30% assist percentage is significantly higher than his regular-season mark of 23.6%.
Cleveland sports a modest 47.9% rebound percentage, and Hart can grab 8+ rebounds as he’s done in eight of 13 appearances.
Brunson took only four 3-pointers in Game 3 while scoring 30 points. He knows where his success comes against the Cavaliers, inside the arc. Brunson has shot 60% or better from inside the arc in every game of this series. Emphasizing that will only help his scoring. Then, look at each of the last two rounds: New York won so handily in each clinching game, Brunson did not play even 29 minutes in either game. Fading his assists prop is actually a bet on the Knicks.
Game 1 totaled 219 points, but it took overtime to get there, and Game 2 went Under. This series has been dominated by New York’s stifling defense, and I don’t expect many points from the struggling Cavs. I like this line at 217, but I’ll bet it down to 215.5.
Mikal Bridges has averaged 26.1 PRA across his last eight games, clearing this combo line seven times. Cleveland’s lackluster defense won’t offer much resistance, particularly in transition as he scores and facilitates. I expected this line to be priced at 23.5, making it a solid value play.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus62% picking New York vs Cleveland to go Over
Total PicksNY 295, CLE 179
Top User Picks
More Picks'SouthernMotion' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Over (217.5)
SouthernMotion is #1 on picking games that New York is in with a record of (37-28-0) and +14150 units on the season.
'jetfan4340' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Over (217.5)
jetfan4340 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (48-30-1) and +13350 units on the season.
'88FAN' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Under (217.5)
88FAN is #2 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (25-14-0) and +12200 units on the season.
'bonny2bag' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Under (217.5)
bonny2bag is #2 on picking games that New York is in with a record of (38-35-0) and +13140 units on the season.
'merle1858' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Under (217.5)
merle1858 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (40-38-0) and +9700 units on the season.
'sssnnnlll' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Under (217.5)
sssnnnlll is #4 on picking games that New York is in with a record of (36-29-0) and +11450 units on the season.
'Seawep95' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Over (217.5)
Seawep95 is #4 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (40-28-0) and +9700 units on the season.
'PMaeson' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Over (217.5)
PMaeson is #5 on picking games that New York is in with a record of (35-24-0) and +11200 units on the season.
'chickenhawk3233' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Over (217.5)
chickenhawk3233 is #7 on picking games that New York is in with a record of (19-7-0) and +10350 units on the season.
'sandhog1' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Under (217.5)
sandhog1 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (41-37-1) and +8100 units on the season.
'redsox99' picks New York vs Cleveland to go Under (217.5)
redsox99 is #9 on picking games that New York is in with a record of (32-32-0) and +9500 units on the season.