Cleveland Cavaliers

Picks

Realize, New York has shown a penchant for closing series with firepower. It beat Atlanta by 51 points in a game that was not even that close. The 76ers fell by 30 points. Routs lead to more minutes for McBride, obviously. Thus, he scored 25 points in 29 minutes in that farewell to Philadelphia.

Harden has cleared this prop in the last two games, but topping out at 19 points in Game 3 despite playing 41 minutes is not an encouraging sign. If New York does indeed win its 11th straight game, a blowout feels rather likely. Eight of the Knicks’ last 10 wins have been blowouts. A blowout in a series-clinching game typically cuts into starters’ minutes. Cutting into Harden’s minutes at all should doom his scoring, given he has hardly scored in bunches in this series.

Karl-Anthony Towns is a willing beneficiary of Brunson’s early deference. Towns has scored seven and 11 points in the last two first quarters, a combination of long-range shooting and work at the rim.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in full desperation mode against the New York Knicks, trailing 3-0 in the series and continuing to experiment with different coverages and defensive matchups. Nothing has worked so far. We’ve seen Jalen Brunson score 30-plus points in some games and rack up 14 assists in another. In Game 4, I believe Karl-Anthony Towns will be the main beneficiary of whatever defensive approach Cleveland uses to slow down Brunson. The Cavaliers can’t consistently send help from the wings in the Brunson-Towns two-man game because OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have thrived in this series against rotating defenses and on catch-and-shoot opportunities created by Brunson. I expect Cleveland to lean into a more aggressive drop coverage with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and they may simply have to live with the open looks that creates for Towns as a shooter. I price Towns at -185 to clear this total.

I’ll keep riding with the Knicks to close this series out tonight. New York has won 10 straight playoff games, with nine of those victories coming by double digits. They’ve also been ruthless in close-out spots, obliterating the Hawks and Sixers by 51 and 30 points on the road. The Knicks have completely controlled this matchup and shouldn’t ease up against a Cleveland team that's lacking urgency.

The Knicks can attack in a variety of ways, as all five starters are averaging 14+ points.

Cleveland has struggled to move the ball effectively, and New York’s size and rebounding depth have largely neutralized the Cavs’ double-big advantage of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

I expect a comfortable victory, and I’ll bet this line up to 4.5, making it a strong wager at -2.

The Knicks rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).

Offensive rebounds continue possession and spark additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Cleveland Cavaliers grade out 7th-best in in the NBA with 12.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.. This year, opposing starting PGs have attempted 4.3 foul shots per game (6th-most in the league) vs. the Knicks, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 3.9 3-point attempts per game (3rd-lowest in the league) vs. the Cavaliers, creating a tough matchup.. The Knicks have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The New York Knicks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Cleveland Cavaliers).. In terms of getting to the free-throw line, the Knicks's unimpressive 21.9 foul shots per game comes in as the 8th-worst in the NBA this year.

The matchup against New York is a positive one for threes; when the Knicks are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have compiled the highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (48.0%).. Offensive rebounds continue possession and spark additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Cleveland Cavaliers grade out 7th-best in in the NBA with 12.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

The Knicks have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The New York Knicks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Cleveland Cavaliers).

Offensive rebounds continue possession and spark additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Cleveland Cavaliers grade out 7th-best in in the NBA with 12.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

The Knicks rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Knicks rank as the 6th-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when it comes to 3-point attempts.. This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 3.9 3-point attempts per game (3rd-lowest in the league) vs. the Cavaliers, creating a tough matchup.. The Knicks have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The New York Knicks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Cleveland Cavaliers).