Miami @ Boston Picks & Props

Nikola Jovic has made 2.4 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.9 more than he's sunk overall this year without the home court advantage. In terms of 3-point attempts, the 10th-most aggressive team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Heat. Nikola Jovic has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 29.5% more than he's sunk overall this year. The matchup against Boston is a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 3.9 free throws per game this year when the Boston Celtics are playing at home (8th-most in the league).

In terms of 3-point attempts, the 10th-most aggressive team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Heat. The matchup against the Boston Celtics is a good one for 3-point attempts; the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 2nd-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8).

Al Horford has converted 62.6% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games at home, 9.9% more than he's made overall this year while playing at home. The Celtics check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists). In contrast to last year's 72.6% mark, Al Horford's free-throw performance has jumped this year to 86.7%. Al Horford will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home tends to boost player production across the board.

Delon Wright has sunk 79.2% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 37.0% higher than he's sunk overall this season away from home. Among all players in the NBA, Delon Wright measures in the 13th percentile for personal fouls, compiling just 0.7 fouls per game when playing away from home this year. In terms of 3-point attempts, the 10th-most aggressive team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Heat. Delon Wright has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 18.3% higher than he's made in all games this season.

Kristaps Porzingis has converted 55.4% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games at home, 11.7% more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the year when playing at home. Out of all players in the NBA, Kristaps Porzingis places in the 75th percentile for playing time, compiling an enormous 28.8 minutes per game when playing at home this year. The number of three-point shots attempted against Bam Adebayo has been remarkably high (2.2 per game) when on the road and defending fellow starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The Celtics check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists). Kristaps Porzingis will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city generally boosts player performance across the board.

Bam Adebayo has tallied 2.2 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (81st percentile). The matchup vs. Kristaps Porzingis is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when guarding fellow starting Cs this year, they have made a lowly 25.0% of their treys (6th percentile). The most lethargic tempo visiting team in the NBA this year has been the Heat. The Heat will likely see a decline in possessions today from squaring off against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Boston Celtics). Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark added chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 4thworst in in the league away from home with just 9.0 offensive boards per game this year.

Derrick White has successfully made 3.3 treys per game over the last 15 games, 0.6 more than he's sunk in all games this year. Derrick White has been on the court for 31.8 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 85th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA. This year, opposing starting SGs have tallied 6.3 three attempts per game (highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, designating this as a positive matchup. The Celtics check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists). Derrick White has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 10.3% more than he's converted over the course of the season.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been called for 2.2 personal fouls per game while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 78th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone. The most lethargic tempo visiting team in the NBA this year has been the Heat. The Heat will likely see a decline in possessions today from squaring off against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Boston Celtics). Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark added chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 4thworst in in the league away from home with just 9.0 offensive boards per game this year. The matchup against Boston may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted just 1.4 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Celtics have the home court advantage (least in the NBA).

The most lethargic tempo visiting team in the NBA this year has been the Heat. The Heat will likely see a decline in possessions today from squaring off against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Boston Celtics). Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark added chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 4thworst in in the league away from home with just 9.0 offensive boards per game this year. This year, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.3 foul shots per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, finding it difficult to draw fouls. Tyler Herro will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lower stat production for all stats.

Jrue Holiday has averaged 31.7 minutes per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 84th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied 23.1 points per game (4th-highest in the NBA) against the Heat, making this a favorable matchup for offensive productivity. The Celtics check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists). Jrue Holiday has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games, 15.4% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. Over the last 5 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 5.8 free throws per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

Out of all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum rates in the 98th percentile, tallying a whopping 26.6 points per game when playing at home this year. Out of all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum registers in the 98th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, averaging 8.2 per game this year. Out of all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum lands in the 95th percentile for playing time, compiling a colossal 34.9 minutes per game at home this year. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for three-point shots; the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 2nd-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (43.4%). The Celtics check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Among all players in the NBA, Jaylen Brown ranks in the 96th percentile for field goals made, totaling a whopping 8.9 per game this year. Jaylen Brown has sunk 2.8 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games at home, 0.6 higher than he's converted from downtown over the course of the year with the home court advantage. Out of all players in the NBA, Jaylen Brown registers in the 87th percentile for playing time, logging a colossal 32.6 minutes per game when playing at home this year. The matchup against Miami is a strong one for 3-point attempts; when the Heat are away from home, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (5.8). The Celtics check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Payton Pritchard has gone over 7.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Sam Hauser has gone over 5.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Haywood Highsmith has gone over 5.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Duncan Robinson has gone over 6.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Kevin Love has gone over 5.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.