Saturday night will see an MLS rivalry renewed when the New York Red Bulls play host to the New England Revolution at Red Bull Arena.
It’s been a trying season for the Red Bulls, but it can still be salvaged as they sit three points adrift of the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference heading into the weekend. The visiting Revs are one of the top-scoring sides in the league, but their best playmaker is suspended, and that could spell trouble for a side that lost both meetings in this series a year ago.
Can New England pick up just their third away win in this series over the past 22 matches, or will NYRB pick up an important three points towards reaching the postseason? We discuss that and more in our New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution picks and predictions for Saturday, July 8.
New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution best odds
New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution picks and predictions
Carles Gil has been at the heart of everything the Revolution has done this season. Coming into the weekend, the New England captain ranks third in MLS in assists this season, and his seven goals scored are tied for most on the team.
But a yellow card in New England’s 2-2 draw at FC Cincinnati on Saturday was a costly one. His fifth booking of the campaign sees him suspended for a match, and the Revs will now have to look for someone to pick up the slack at the attacking end. And that feeds directly into our best bet for the match.
Missing Gil is going to put pressure on New England to find ways through the Red Bull defense. New York is the only team yet to have faced at least 200 shots against this season. And at the current pace teams are firing against them, it will take another 11 matches for New York’s opponents to reach 200.
That’s not a misprint, and you didn’t read that wrong. The Red Bulls are allowing an astonishingly-low 6.45 shot attempts per match, more than four fewer than the next-best team in LAFC. Their high-pressure style causes teams to have to build up from the back, as they rank seventh in attempted tackles. However, they rank fourth in tackles in their attacking end, and fourth in midfield tackles.
When New York gets the ball back, they don’t do a whole lot with it. A big reason they’re 12th in the Eastern Conference heading into the weekend is their 18 goals scored through 20 matches. While they’ve managed to score 14 through 10 home matches, it’s not mattered much as they’ve conceded 13 against in those outings.
The Revs have been solid on the road, but they have had some shootouts away from home. Four of their last five away matches have seen three or more goals scored, but those have involved some high-scoring attacks such as Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Atlanta.
Going back to Gil, he’s missed just two matches in league play this season — a win over Nashville, and a loss at LAFC. New England managed just one goal over those two outings, and his absence is going to be heavily felt on Saturday. Combine that with a Red Bull offense that has converted less than 25% of their efforts on goal, and you have the recipe for a low-scoring affair.
Take the Under and do it quickly, with bet365 currently the only book offering at a better price than -125.
My best bet: Under 2.5 goals (-118 at bet365)
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New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution side analysis
The Red Bulls are favored on the three-way line, and their MLS odds have increased since the lines opened. Priced between -110 and -130, they’ve seen money come in to drive the number despite having just one victory in their last four, and losing four of their last seven overall. The draw is second-choice, with New England a distant third pick priced as high as +335.
Both teams will be without key players in Saturday’s matchup. For New York, defenders Cory Burke and John Tolkin are on international duty, while forward Lewis Morgan is out injured. But they managed a clean sheet against Atlanta before conceding just two at Columbus, so the defense hasn’t been hampered too badly.
In addition to Gil’s suspension, New England will be without DeJaun Jones who is on international duty. Four other players are sidelined with injuries, including forwards Nacho Gil and Dylan Borrero.
New England has won 34 times compared to 30 for the Red Bulls in this series, but the Red Bulls have dominated at home with 23 wins, compared to nine draws and nine losses. The Red Bulls have won seven of the last 10 meetings at Red Bull Arena, as well.
The Revs are unbeaten in their last seven, but without Gil, it’s going to be a rough night. If you’re playing the three-way line, I’d go with the home team to win.
New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution Over/Under analysis
We won’t dive too far into this given the Under is our best bet, but the Under is favored nearly everywhere, with the line moving in different directions depending on the book.
The Over is 3-0 in New York’s last three home fixtures, but the Under has hit in seven of their 12 home tilts in all competitions. The Over is also hit in their last four matches overall. For New England, Over bettors have been on a roll. Their last nine matches have seen three or more goals on eight occasions, with both teams scoring in seven of those matches. New England have scored multiple goals in each of their last four matches.
Four of the last five meetings in this series have seen at least three goals, with a total of 18 scored in that five-game span. The last two at Red Bull Arena have also gone Over. Were Gil in the lineup, the Over is where I’d be going, but his absence is why we’re betting on a low-scoring affair on Saturday.
New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution game info
| Location: | Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJ |
| Date: | Saturday, July 8, 2023 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution key injuries
New York Red Bulls: Corey Burke D (Out), Lewis Morgan F (Out), John Tolkin D (Out).
New England Revolution: Carles Gil M (Out), DeJuan Jones D (Out), Nacho Gil F (Out).
New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution weather
Saturday evening at Red Bull Arena will be a pleasant one, with temperatures at kickoff in the mid-80s. However, rain will be a threat towards the second half, and possible thunderstorms could impact proceedings late.
