1-0 after smu crushed and won out right. Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:
Cmich 67 94 119 121 (240)
6 Wky 72 23 80 104 (184)
My first rhetorical question - why are these teams in a bowl game with composites of 240 and 180. Anyways, the data above reflects ranks for - Total off. Total Def. Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength. The numbers in ( ) are composites of the sagarin ranks.
I label each category A B C D. What we have here is what I call a 1 A / 3 situation - meaning - Cmich is only better in Total off.
The line opened at Wky -6 - currently hovering around 6.5.
During the season, very often you will see a lot of upsets when this is the pattern, however, you have to consider this is a neutral site for both teams. Thus I've looked at previous bowl games since 2009 - with this scenario, typically when the underdog has a composite of 200 or more the line is a double digit for the favorite. And very often the team that has the best sagarin composite comes out on top/covers.
However, i'm not having a warm fuzzy regarding wky. I recognize on paper cmich sucks and wky is clearly better (not by too much) - but the oddsmakers made wky a 6 pt favorite - why not higher - I know I know - playing in mich etc. but still 6 pts.
The other thing - during the season wky played middle ten st -147 - composite for wky and 211 composite for midd. ten - middle ten won out right. In other games during the season, very often the 200 team usually loses big. Indicates, they may play down to the compettition. This was the only game where I saw the the 200 team win outright. I'm on Cmich. tonite even thought they have a composite of 240. Don't go crazy, plenty more opportunities await. Good luck all.
----------------------------------------------------------
Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:
SMU 95 66 78 93 (171)
12.5 Fres. 14 19 40 98 (138)
Fresno opens at 12.5, currently around 12.5 (donbest.com).
Simply looking at the numbers one may say Fres. dominates in total off and total def. they have a better sagarin rank and are almost tied when it comes to sched. strength - thus my money is on Fres...........hold up grasshopper.
In order to get a sense of who to take in this game - you have to compare this scenario with games played previously in other bowl games (to ensure the neutral field is considered). Looking at my data from previous seasons - their have been a limited number of similar scenarios along with a spread the same or close to 12.5 - but they indicated take the points. Thus i'm on SMU. I wish everyone a merry xmas, holiday etc. and a happy new year.
I'm not sold on simply looking at consensus and doing the opposite or joining the band wagon- but I do ask myself the question - if I had to bet a life changing amount - would fres. do it for me tonite - my answer - I doubt it. Good luck all.
Hot Forum Topics
