Hi Rio501,
I will elaborate on
your question, because it is an excellent question, forgive me if I
ramble.
Unlike things you
hear, and read, chalk is irrelevant as long as you win, and at the risk of
sounding cocky, I win a lot. I play the
chalked RL’s when I see a potential upset, and sometimes as a protection to my
ML play. You can see this in reverse on
7-30 when I played the Dodgers RL (-1.5) & heavy chalk ML of -157. For instance, say a dog has a ML +135 line,
and the RL is -155, I might play the ML $100 to win $135 & RL of $155 to
win $100. So, if my upset comes through
I go up $235, if I lose by one run, I only lose $35. If I was that far off that I lose by two, or
more, well I deserved that.
In other words, I am
calling an upset when I play the +1.5, and simply playing it safe. Don’t believe the hype of “never play chalk”,
“never play heavy favorites”, “never do this/that”. Anyone who says that are NOT winning
players. The rare winning player you
come across will not limit himself to anything, including parlays, but you will
ONLY see them parlay heavy favorites to lessen their risk on those heavy
favorites (-180 or more).
As a final example,
If I have a Dog handicapped (MY line) at a +115 Line (translated as 46.5%
chance of winning), and the posted line (sportsbook’s line) is +140 (translated as saying they are giving
this Dog a 41.7% chance of winning) well there is a value play. Now, my line, though favoring the Dog more so
than the SB’s line, still has the Favorite winning 53.5% and if my numbers are
right, they should win. But I have a quandary
here because I have a value play, but 5.35 times out of 10 the Favorite should
win. But any small happenstance, bad
play, unlucky play or error by the favorite could shift that outcome (or a
lucky hit, ect by the Dog). In other
words, I am agreeing that the Favorite should win, but the SB is telling me that
the Dog is more of a dog than they actually are (IF my numbers are right). NOW that 1 run shifts the chances of success
to my favor. Then, I use the RL to
protect the ML play (not always, but at times), and I have a strong value play.
Am I not seeing another play here? I see Pirates only.
Nice Job so far this season 
will look forward to your picks 
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