This past week got me thinking... Ive been betting for a long time now, but I still remember when I was a "n00b" and me and my friends always reminisce about the one season where we Bet 3 teams for like 5 consecutive weeks in a row, teased, reversed, and hit em all, EVERY week! Now that Im an "experienced" bettor, I look back and say... "boy, did I get lucky! i was such a square!"... but was I really? I mean, the public Wins sometimes right? I was the typical public bettor, I would Hammer every public play, I didnt know about trends, i didnt care about spots, I just pounded the "Obvious Plays"... or the "LOCKS".... But I had some SERIOUS Winning Streaks as a result... Fast forward to this season and lately it seems everytime I go "Sharp", I shouldve gone "Square" and vice-versa... Theres got to be a way to identify when the "let-downs" are or where the "Good/Bad Spots" are?
For example, this past week, if I were still a "Square", I wouldve almost undoubtedly hammered Atlanta, NE, and Indy... Because those are 3 Public teams, and I was a Public Bettor... But now, I try and be a "Sharp" bettor and because the Atlanta line was too low, it was a "trap" so I layed off, and since NE had such a HUGE Monday Night game, they were Perfect Fade Material, so I went with Chicago and Lost... But I did make one "Square/Public Play", I pounded Indy bc I felt despite 80+% of the Public being on Indy, they were in a "Must Win", and they did Win... but I Lost on a Last Second TD... So after the game I kicked myself for not being "Sharp"... which mightve led to me being "Sharp" on Chicago.... But I Lost there too!... So now what do I do?
The question I pose to you guys is this, when is a Bet just TOO GOOD to be true? ....and when is a Line just a "Gift Line"? ... I remember a couple weeks ago when Pitt played @ Buffalo, in the 1st half my friend said to me, "Damn Jay, we shoulda POUNDED Pitt, it was a 'Gift Line' " but by the end of the game, we laughed and were glad we didnt take Pitt... Again, before Wk14, we felt like Atlanta was a "Gift Line" but it seemed a bit low so we decided to layoff and we were wrong... So how do you guys decide when to lay off or when to POUND that "Gift Line"??
Despite our conspiracy theories, Vegas DOES NOT control the outcome of games, they just set a line and we dictate the action... Every season, every game, every week, I try and BETTER my handicapping skills, I try and learn something new every week, and I try and teach myself lessons... After this week, I felt like a completely MISSED some "Obvious Bets" where I couldve smashed but I didnt wanna Bet with the Public...
Thats another thing, following the Public Plays can sometimes help, and other times, REALLY hurt! This past week it REALLY hurt me!...... I "went against the grain" on Thursday with the Colts being a HUGE Public Play and got killed so then I faded the Public on Sunday and got killed again!.... When do you guys follow the public? Do you guys pick and choose or do you religiously follow percentages over a certain number? Or do you completely ignore the Public? Whats your opinion of following or fading the Consensus???
Im just really curious to hear when you guys Ride the "Square Play" or make a "Sharp Play".... and what makes it a "Square Play" if it ends up being the Winning Play?? Id REALLY like to hear what you "Veterans" out there think about this concept.... Lately I've found myself laying off some really solid plays bc of the Public being ALL over them and Im sick of missing these "gimmes"... I wanna better myself as a Handicapper and I really think this will help! Thanks for ALL the feedback!!!