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# MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 344

Prospect
#251
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:13:39 AM
+18.07 units overall

Giants 122(1x)
Nationals -102 (3x)
Red Sox 111 (3x)

Sporting Lisbon +510 (1x)
The8ofCups PM The8ofCups
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 816

Rookie
#252
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:33:47 AM
Dear Sir,

Have you explained at all what the basis of your system is?  I know a thing or two about power ratings, programming, and even Monte Carlo style analysis (in scientific applications).  I'm having a hard time imagining how exactly one would derive a predictive system from Monte Carlo analysis.

Of course I don't expect details, but can you give me some rough idea?  Thanks.
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 344

Prospect
#253
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:47:24 PM
Baseball is basically the summation of individual events.  Simulate each event and add them up and you have a baseball game.  I would guess that I have a baseball statistical database better than most MLB teams.  Each pitch is simulated and an outcome calculated based upon probable pitching matchup.  A pitch is simulated and could potentially be thrown by the starter or a pitcher from the bullpen to get a result.  The numbers crunch pitch by pitch and give me an outcome.  Actually, I have converted the output to be bettor advantage and choose units accordingly.  It took me three years.  It started as a fantasy baseball project and now has other applications.
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 344

Prospect
#254
Posted: 4/26/2012 3:17:43 PM
Matt Kalil 5th overall +1000 (.25x)
Ryan Tannehill over 4.5 105 (.75x)
Brandon Weeden u36.5 150 (.25x)

Doubling down on Tannehill over 4.5 105 (1.5x total)
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 344

Prospect
#255
Posted: 4/26/2012 4:36:41 PM
Champions League Final lock it in early
Chelsea           +200   (1x)

90 minutes plus injury time result
Chelsea           +1/2   +125    (1x)
2 1/2   Under  -115  (1x)

90 minutes plus injury time 3-way result
Chelsea         +425 (1x)

pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 344

Prospect
#256
Posted: 4/26/2012 10:56:33 PM
Draft props went good.

Locking in
Nationals 189 (3x)
Mets 153 (2x)
Mariners 194 (1x)
Pirates 173 (1x)
Diamondbacks 124 (2x)
Tigers -124 (3x)
A's 114 (1x)
Cubs 242 (1x)
Angels -130 (2x)
Red Sox -110 (1x)

The program says some of these lines will run a lot.  What we are going to do is play the other side tomorrow to lock in a profit on a couple.
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 344

Prospect
#257
Posted: 4/27/2012 7:44:50 AM
2-1 +0.94, +19.01 overall
Paidonjok PM Paidonjok
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 7986

Captain
#258
Posted: 4/27/2012 8:44:57 AM
BOL!!
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 344

Prospect
#259
Posted: 4/27/2012 4:30:01 PM

 pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #260Posted: 4/27/2012 4:34:07 PMNationals 189 (3x)Mets 153 (2x)Mariners 194 (1x)Pirates 173 (1x)Diamondbacks 124 (2x)Tigers -124 (3x)A's 114 (1x)Cubs 242 (1x)Angels -130 (2x)Red Sox -110 (1x)AddingBlue Jays -190 (1x)Phillies -240 (1x)Makes 0.06 unit profit.  The system projected 0.3 units profit by making the play to cancel the first bet.  It also says That our initial play was worthy of one unit.  I am taking the guaranteed profit.  In order to grind out my year, I take what I can get. pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #261Posted: 4/28/2012 12:32:24 AMFulham 360 (1x)Arsenal -110 (1x)Newcastle 165 (1x)Liverpool -105 (1x)Pacers -9 (1x)76ers +9 (1x)Capitals 145 (2x)Kings 143 (2x)Nationals -116 (3x)Mets 134 (3x)Red Sox -103 (3x)A's 137 (3x)Diamondbacks 118 (5x) pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #262Posted: 4/28/2012 12:57:04 AM3-5 -7.64 units.   I screwed the pooch buying out of the Cubs and Mariners.  The data was borderline.  It was within a threshold where a decision had to be made and I made the wrong one.  Sorry.still up 11.37 units overall better day tomorrow pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #263Posted: 4/28/2012 1:06:47 PMAngels -138 (3x) pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #264Posted: 4/29/2012 12:41:00 AM3-3 -1.46 +9.91 for the year. pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #265Posted: 4/29/2012 12:47:23 AMCeltics 1.5 (1x)Lakers -4.5 (1x)Predators -118 (2x)Tigers 165 (3x)Diamondbacks 162 (3x)Red Sox -121 (3x)Brewers 109 (2x)Mets -110 (3x)Nationals -104 (3x) Car-man PM Car-manJoined: Apr 2012Posts: 941 Rookie #266Posted: 4/29/2012 11:29:06 AM NICE CARD!!!     G/L pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #267Posted: 4/29/2012 7:17:02 PM3-3 +0.29 units, +10.2 units overall.  I just looked and I am 27th overall in the NHL Playoff picks contest.  Not helping us here, but it made me chuckle a little.  Anyone just picking up this post, the record is for baseball only.  The other picks are posted at request of someone.  We did get a win with lakers today.  Good luck Celtics and Predators.  More to come. pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #268Posted: 4/29/2012 7:34:15 PMOrioles 158 2xTigers -145 3xA's 151 2xMets -114 3xRays -121 4xDodgers 128 5xBrewers 106 3xTwins 220 2x pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #269Posted: 4/29/2012 11:55:15 PMMan Untd +240 (1x)Draw Man City/Man Untd +250 (1x)Played at two different books basically getting Man Untd +1/2 +122.5 (2x) pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #270Posted: 4/30/2012 5:15:48 PMOrioles 158 2xTigers -145 3xA's 151 2xMets -114 3xRays -121 4xDodgers 128 5xBrewers 106 3xTwins 220 2xrepost from last night pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #271Posted: 4/30/2012 5:21:57 PMAlso adding Rangers -137 (2x) pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #272Posted: 4/30/2012 5:48:12 PMCapitals 134 (2x)Kings 136 (2x)Heat -9.5 (1x)Thunder -6.5 (1x) 2LEGIT2QUITU PM 2LEGIT2QUITUJoined: Jan 2010Posts: 7684 Captain #273Posted: 4/30/2012 5:51:29 PMBOL pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #274Posted: 4/30/2012 11:22:02 PMLakers -5 (2x)Flyers -150  (1x)Fulham +1 -120Orioles 173 (3x)Phillies 117 (2x)Tigers -159 (3x)Cubs 144 (2x)Mets -121 (5x)White Sox -124 (3x)Dodgers 122 (7x)Brewers -113 (3x) pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843Joined: Apr 2012Posts: 344 Prospect #275Posted: 5/1/2012 12:50:36 AM3-5 -5.24 units.  Week not going well glad hockey is going strong.+4.96 units overall.  Big day tomorrow.Lakers -5 (2x)Flyers -150  (1x)Fulham +1 -120Orioles 173 (3x)Phillies 117 (2x)Tigers -159 (3x)Cubs 144 (2x)Mets -121 (5x)White Sox -124 (3x)Dodgers 122 (7x)Brewers -113 (3x)
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