It might seem unusual to see such a strong field at the tournament immediately preceding The Masters—but the RBC Heritage isn't your regular post-major PGA Tour betting event.
Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina is one of the most popular courses in the world, so it's not surprising to see such a strong field vie for the RBC Heritage title this week. Four players are listed as golf betting favorites of +2,000 or better to win, but the depth of this field makes it one of the more wide-open tournaments bettors will see this PGA Tour season.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our golf picks, predictions and best bets for the RBC Heritage.
Harbour Town Golf Links betting stats that matter
Harbour Town bucks the trend of the majority of courses on the PGA Tour: It's one of the shortest courses these players will see in 2021 and is littered with trees that come into play on virtually every hole. Bryson DeChambeau jokingly suggested that he couldn't "unleash the Kraken" at Harbour Town, with errant drives punished more severely here than just about anywhere else.
This factor, combined with Harbour Town having the second-smallest total putting surface on tour, makes accuracy the most important stat by a significant margin this week. Driving accuracy is paramount, and players won't be able to cheat by cutting corners. SG: Approach is also a critical statistic at the RBC Heritage, with postage-stamp greens greeting the field.
RBC Heritage outright winner bets
Think of it this way, Dustin Johnson backers: Your guy had two more days of rest than expected after flaming out of The Masters as the defending tournament champion. And if you're wondering why he's in Hilton Head this week, it's because RBC is his main sponsor. He's the favorite at +1,200, with defending champ Webb Simpson at +1,400 and Patrick Cantlay next at +1,800.
Who will win the RBC Heritage? Here's our best guess:
Patrick Cantlay (+1,800)
Some bettors will be inclined to fade Cantlay based on his recent form. He has missed the cut at his past two stroke-play events and didn't look good at all while carding a 79-73 at Augusta. But he had three Top-3 results in his previous six events and has finishes of third, seventh and third in his three RBC Heritage appearances. Fade him at your peril—we don't recommend it.
Corey Conners (+3,500)
This could be a perfect storm kind of week for the Canadian, who was in contention through three rounds at The Masters before stumbling to a final-round 74. He has the recent form you want (three Top-8 finishes in his last three events), the game to suit the course (seventh in driving accuracy, 10th in GIR success rate) and he opened with 68-63 here last year. It could be his time.
RBC Heritage matchup predictions
Dustin Johnson Over Webb Simpson (-120)
For all intents and purposes, this is DJ's tournament. And while it might surprise some to learn that his top finish here is a 16th-place showing in 2018, he has played consistent golf at Harbour Town, with eight of his last nine rounds coming in at 68 or better. This is a different course than when Simpson won last year—firmer, faster and windier. That benefits DJ in this matchup.
Matt Kuchar Over Shane Lowry (-110)
Matt Kuchar has been quite the hit-or-miss player this season, making eight of 14 cuts—and he missed by the slimmest of margins at Augusta with rounds of 70 and 75. But Harbour Town has been one of Kuchar's favorite places: He has five Top-11 finishes in his last seven visits, including a win in 2014 and a runner-up finish in 2019. He's also 18th in driving accuracy in 2021.
RBC Heritage prop bets
Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish (+200)
It's easy to forget that Morikawa hasn't been on the PGA Tour for very long but he already has an impressive 2021 resume that includes a win at the WGC-Workday Championship and a T15 at The Masters. More importantly, he leads the tour in SG: Approach, while ranking sixth in driving accuracy and fifth in GIR percentage. He's a terrific play at these odds.
Low South African: Branden Grace (+175)
This might be the most intriguing "Top Golfer By Nationality" prop you'll see this weekend. Three players represent South Africa at the tournament, and all three (Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Branden Grace, Dylan Frittelli) carry nearly identical odds to be the low countryman. We're going with Grace, who won in Puerto Rico in late February and has three Top-11 finishes at Harbour Town.
RBC Heritage betting card
- Patrick Cantlay Outright (+1,800)
- Corey Conners Outright (+3,500)
- Dustin Johnson Over Webb Simpson (-120)
- Matt Kuchar Over Shane Lowry (-110)
- Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish (+200)
- Low South African: Branden Grace (+175)
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