Canada will look to win gold for the second straight year as the host nation will take on its North American rival in Team USA at the 2021 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship finals on Tuesday night.
The Canadians have played next to perfect hockey over their six tournament wins, outscoring their opponents 41-4 and giving up next to nothing with one goal allowed in their last four games.
Team USA comes into the gold-medal game having beaten Team Finland in a thrilling 4-3 win yesterday. The Americans came into the tournament as the most experienced roster and are led by forward Trevor Zegras (Anaheim Ducks) who leads the tournament in assists (10) and is tied with Canada’s Dylan Cozens (Buffalo Sabres) for the tournament lead in points (16).
Oddsmakers have Team Canada as a 1.5-goal favorite with the total set at 5.5 shaded slightly to the Over.
Here are our World Junior Hockey Championship free picks and predictions for Team USA vs. Team Canada for Tuesday, January 5 (9:30 p.m. ET).
Team USA vs Team Canada Gold Medal Game Betting Preview
Key Injuries
USA: None to report.
Canada: Kirby Dach F (Out).
Betting Trend to Know
Over the last decade, these two countries have faced each other 11 times with Canada winning seven of those contests, including the two most recent matchups.
Puck Line Pick
Team Canada has shown zero flaws so far in this year’s competition. This is a team that dominates possession offensively, gives nothing to its opponents on the defensive side and is backed by the hottest goalie in the tournament. Players are winning every battle and seemingly making the smart play every time—it is not a stretch to say this is one of the best-coached teams Canada has put on the ice.
Canada’s M/O is to score early and force its opponents to play catch up against a highly intelligent defensive system, The Canucks have scored the opening goal in each game and all those tallies have come within the game’s first 10 minutes. Team Canada has led for over 300 minutes, been tied for 19:43 and have yet to trail.
Not to take anything away from Team USA, but playing against a team where every forward is a first-round pick, the Americans are going to need some bounces to knock off the host team.
There are also a few other factors that give Canada such an advantage other than their obvious excessive amount of talent: all the referees are Canadian, they are playing at home in a pandemic and this team has been together since November 11. Add it up and you can see why Team Canada is a two-goal favorite in the finals.
Team USA has many similar characteristics as Canada but can't compare to its depth. If the Canadians can shut down the USA's top line of Zegras, Alex Turcotte (Los Angeles Kings) and Arthur Kaliyev (also Kings), the States will be hard-pressed to find secondary scoring against the stingy Canadian defense.
Facing an aggressive Finnish forecheck in the semifinals, Team USA played anything but a perfect game in exiting its own zone and routinely turned the puck over. USA was outshot 36-26 to the same Finnish team that Canada beat 4-1 and outshot 40-19.
American goalie Spencer Knight (Florida Panthers) has now allowed five goals over his last two games as defensive lapses and penalties have allowed Team USA’s opponents to find the back of the net. If America wants to walk away with a gold – and not a silver – it will have to avoid these mistakes and play near perfectly to knock off Team Canada.
PREDICTION: Team Canada -1.5 (-107)
Over/Under Pick
Canada has hit three straight Unders as goalie Devon Levi (Panthers) has single-handedly stymied the opposition. The goaltender has yet to allow an even-strength goal and has posted a shutout in three of his last four games.
Through 18 periods of hockey, opponents have scored a total of four goals against Team Canada as it has limited second-chance opportunities all tournament.
Knight has also given the Americans confidence on the backend with two shutouts so far this tournament and three years of U20 competition experience.
The one knock on the Canadian team is its play on the powerplay. Even though they scored with the man advantage against the Russians yesterday, this unit has struggled to get set up and isn’t as sharp as it should be with all the talent.
Also helping the keeping goals off the board is the discipline from the favorites. Canada took just two penalties against Russia and just one minor penalty in the quarterfinals. Team USA has relied heavily on its powerplay in the elimination round, going 3-for-7 with the man advantage, but may not have many opportunities on Tuesday.
Team USA is 1-0-1 O/U in the medal round with six of the total 14 goals scored being on the powerplay. At even strength, Canada is giving up nothing and doesn’t take many penalties, making us think chances for the Americans will be at a premium.
With Team Canada dictating the pace of play and seemingly able to eliminate opponents' scoring opportunities once it has a lead, we have no choice but to ride the Under again. Team Canada is 1-4 O/U in its last five and have shown they don’t need to run up the score to win.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-110)
Team USA vs Team Canada Betting Card
- Team Canada -1.5 (-107)
- Under 5.5 (-110)
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Where Can I Bet on the 2021 WJHC?
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