Sitting on top of Group A, Team Canada has benefited greatly from a weak division and possibly the tournament's easiest schedule. Sporting a +16 goal differential after wins against Germany and Slovakia, the Canadians set their sights on Team Switzerland on Tuesday as round-robin play continues in the 2021 World Junior Championships.
Switzerland has managed just a single goal through two preliminary games and has yet to record a point in the standings, with losses to Finland and Slovakia. Switzerland was the Cinderella story of last year’s tournament, but this year they will be lucky to make the quarter-finals.
Oddsmakers have the Canadian side as 5.5-goal favorites with a total of 8 shaded to the under.
Here are our World Junior U20 Championship free picks and predictions for Team Switzerland vs Team Canada for Tuesday, December 29 (6:00 p.m. ET).
Team Switzerland at Team Canada Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Switzerland: None to report.
Canada: Kirby Dach C (Out).
Betting Trend to Know
Team Canada is 12-0 SU versus Team Switzerland over the last decade but has covered -5.5 just three times.
Puck Line Pick
We are kicking ourselves for being swayed by Canada’s 16-2 win over Germany. This is a Canadian team that has not had a lot of time to practice together (like all teams) and has not looked overly dominant through two games against inferior opponents.
Despite the lopsided win in the opener, the Canucks had just 5.58 expected goals for. They dictated the pace of play but didn’t create high-quality scoring chances. The same can be said about Team Canada’s match versus Team Slovakia where they were 5.5-goal favorites and eked out a 3-1 victory. Canada dominated the time of possession in the attacking zone but had just 3.03 expected goals in a game that could have gone the other way with a couple of bounces.
No one is expecting Switzerland to win on Tuesday, as it is currently a +2,400 underdog on the moneyline at BetRegal, but to predict a similar-style game as Canada vs Slovakia isn’t crazy.
The Swiss held Team Slovakia scoreless through 54 minutes and ended up losing 1-0 in a game that was very even. The following game, Swiss goalie Thibault Fatton made 39 saves against Finland in a 4-1 loss where three of the Finnish goals were scored with the man advantage.
Both teams will come into Tuesday’s match having a full-day of rest but until we see the Canadian side click offensively, we can’t take them as a six-goal favorite, unless it’s against a German team only dressing 14 skaters.
Team Canada could easily prove us wrong, but with such a huge collection of talent, sometimes it takes a while before things click, and we haven’t seen that yet.
PREDICTION: Switzerland +5.5 (-128)
Over/Under Pick
After the first two days, it looked like scoring would be the norm with 44 goals being scored in the first six games, but since then, no game has hit the Over heading into Monday night’s matchup between Germany and Slovakia.
Switzerland has hit the Under in both games to begin the tournament, as play from goalie Thibault Fatton has single-handedly kept this offensively-inept group competitive. The Swiss are 1-for-11 with the man advantage so far and aren’t expected to score more than one goal, with its team total of 1.5 paying +140 for the Over.
Team Switzerland has fared well in the tournament over the last two years, having played competitively as its 2-8-1 O/U total of 8.0 goals indicates. It also played the Canadians well in the last matchup back in 2019, as Team Canada edged out a 3-2 win in the preliminaries. Of the countries’ last 13 matchups, nine goals or more have been scored just twice.
Much like the puckline, Team Canada is dangerous to bet against, as no team in the tourney is loaded with more talent. But the expected goal metric is a great indicator of the lack of quality and high-danger chances the team just isn’t generating despite its possession advantage.
Canadian goalie Devon Levi has also looked sharp through three starts — blanking Russia in exhibition play and stopping 25 of 27 shots to open the tournament. Holding the Swiss to a single goal or less could go a long way in cashing the Under. So far, the Canadians have held their opponents to 3.1 expected goals through six periods.
N.B: If your books offer parlays on the same game, betting both the Under 8 with Switzerland +5.5 as well as the Over 8 with Canada -5.5 could return a profit. In all likelihood, if Canada is going to cover the -5.5, the Over is highly probable with the reverse also being likely.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-122)
Team Switzerland vs Team Canada Betting Card
- Switzerland +5.5 (-128)
- Under 8 (-122)
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Where Can I Bet on the 2021 WJHC?
Some online books and casinos will offer bets on 2021 World Junior Hockey Championship odds and props. In Canada, Sports Interaction is our favorite sportsbook for 2021 WJHC odds. Check it out now to find 2021 WJHC odds.
