Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Mikheyev Embraces Growing Role

Prop bet #1: Night of the living Buds

The Maple Leafs return home from a five-game road trip (3-1-1) and face the Kings, their first of a week's wroth of East Coast games. The Kings have a positive goal differential but have been getting some of the worst goaltending in hockey. 

On the year, they have 0.91 more expected goals/60 at even strength than actual goals. It might be chalked up to bad luck, but so far Phoenix Copley and Cam Talbot have not been the answer. Talbot is the expected starter and the netminder has a 2.72 GAA with a .905 SV%. He's also given up at least three goals in all but one of his five starts this year. 

The Leafs have been elite on the power play this season, but slightly snake-bitten at even strength. They rank 21st in goals for above expected at 5-on-5 and a return home vs. some weak goaltending could fix those issues. Enough to hit the Leafs’ team total Over 3.5 at -125. 

The LA offense has a tough task vs. Joseph Woll, but the Kings are also scoring a ton and lead the league in goals per game at 4.38. That should keep the Toronto offense engaged and keep this a more fast-paced matchup that favors goals.   

Maple Leafs prop: team total Over 3.5 (-125 at SIA)

Prop bet #2: Invasion of the Brodie snatchers

Leafs defenseman TJ Brodie is one of the league’s best shot-blockers. He has at least three blocked shots in all but one of his games this year and has hit the Over 2.5 (for plus money) in six straight games. Sometimes the best value is in the most niche and therefore inefficient markets. 

TJ Brodie odds are paying +115 to block at least three shots today, and considering his ice time is going up with the injury to Jake McCabe (out), Brodie should see more than his average ice time tonight. 

McCabe missed his first game Saturday where Brodie played a season-high 25:33. Considering he had played under 20 minutes in the first three games of the year, his 22:26 average ice time per game over his last five games is creating more shot-blocking opportunities. The Kings rank fifth in the league in shot attempts per game, so there will be plenty of chances for this plus-money play to cross the line. 

He plays on the penalty kill, and of all the Top-10 shot blockers in the league, Brodie has the highest ice-time share at 34.4%. Only six other players have more shots blocked than the Toronto defenseman. 

TJ Brodie prop: Over 2.5 blocked shots (+115 at SIA)

Prop bet #3: Texas chainsaw Mikheyev

The Canucks just beat the Preds in Nashville back on the 24th. A 3-2 win where Vancouver had 3.02 expected goals compared to Nashville’s 1.6. The top line of Andrei Kuzmenko, Elias Pettersson, and Ilya Mikeyhev dominated with a 67 xGoal%, to go along with a matching 67 Corsi%. 

Mikeyev had the opening goal and finished with four shots on goal in that game, and has been a big part of the top line since his return. He has also found his way on the second power-play unit since that game, which is giving him more quality scoring opportunities and more time on ice since his return to the lineup four games ago. 

Even in their 4-3 OT loss to the Rangers, this line finished with a 97.2 xGoal%, per Money Puck. Kuzmenko had 10 shot attempts in that game and 25% of the team’s shot share. Pettersson is not shooting nearly as much as he was last year (13.8 SAT/60 from 17.84 last year) which is giving both Kuzmenko and Mikheyev lots of shooting and point opportunities.

This is where the matchup decides which angle I want to bet on. The Predators don’t allow a lot of shots and held Vancouver to just 24 in that previous game. On the season, the Canucks rank 30th in shots/game at 5-on-5. It’s not a great SOG game, but points are a great pivot.

Kuzmenko’s point total has fallen from even money to -135, which is steep, but Ilya Mikheyev odds are still discounted at +125. He has points in three of his four games this year and gets PP2 time vs. a Nashville PK that ranks 30th in the league at 68%.

With an expanding role, and already some success vs. the Predators when his team wasn’t even getting the last change, a plus-money point from the top-line winger is making the card tonight,

Ilya Mikheyev prop: Over 0.5 points (+125 at SIA)