Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Duck and Dodge

Prop bet #1: Forsberg flips switch in Motor City

The Detroit Red Wings have allowed the most shots (35.16) per 60 minutes in the league during their dreadful 2-8-1 stretch dating back to December 7. So, this checks out as a cushy matchup for Nashville Predators winger Filip Forsberg to tick the shots column.

While Forsberg paces the Preds in shots (11.98) and attempts (24.78) per 60 for the campaign, he has seen a slight downtick in volume recently and has only cleared this 3.5-shot total in three of the past 10 games. It’s baked into the Filip Forsberg odds for this total, though, and Nashville’s recent schedule hasn’t been favorable.

Additionally, Forsberg’s highlighted per 60 rates remain career-high marks, and he is the go-to shooter on the No. 1 power-play unit. I also value Detroit taking the third-most minor penalties at five-on-five in the league.

Finally, part of the explanation for Forsberg’s dip in shot volume is that he has converted 44.6% of his attempts into shots during the noted 10-game stretch compared to 49.5% through his first 24 games. It's not a huge gap, but it reinforces the difficult schedule and the potential for statistical correction.

Filip Forsberg prop: Over 3.5 shots (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Zegras stays hot against Desert Dogs

There’s nothing scary about a home date with the Arizona Coyotes, and Anaheim Ducks center Trevor Zegras has impressed since returning from a lower-body injury that cost him 21 games.

Zegras has seven shots and 13 attempts across his past two showings, and his 8.93 shots and 16.9 attempts per 60 minutes for the campaign are career-high marks, and both rank third on the Ducks.

Arizona isn’t the doormat they once were, but the Desert Dogs have been more vulnerable to opposing shooters on the road. The Coyotes allow 32.59 shots per 60 on the highway compared to just 28.77 at Mullett Arena. Arizona’s five-on-five shot-share percentage also drops from 48.1% at home to a 29th-ranked 45.2% on the road.

I also value Zegras’ chemistry with winger Troy Terry. They’ve posted a 52.8 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five dating back to last season, and Zegras sports a 42.6% mark when he isn’t skating with Terry. This isn’t fully reflected in the Trevor Zegras odds for this market.

Trevor Zegras prop: Over 2.5 shots (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Compher scoring curse continues

It’s quickly becoming clear that Detroit Red Wings center J.T. Compher is overmatched as a full-time, top-six center. He sports a career-low 42.9 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, and he projects to center a new-look line with wingers Lucas Raymond and David Perron on his flanks. 

The trio has spent just 49 seconds of ice time together at 5-on-5 this season.

Compher’s 2.2 points per 60 minutes are well above his 1.76 mark over the previous three seasons with the Colorado Avalanche, and the first-year Red Wing has already seen his offensive numbers drop after an unsustainably hot start.

He cashed in 19 points through the first 22 games of the season (2.77 per 60), but Compher has skidded to just two points through eight December games (0.74 per 60). 

Simply put, Compher isn’t the consistent scorer he was to start this season, and the J.T. Compher odds in this market are off the mark. 

I particularly value Nashville Predators goalie Juuse Saros returning to Vezina-caliber form. Saros has turned in a .917 save percentage and 2.66  GAA through his past 14 starts, and it’s been a big reason why the Preds head to Motor City with a league-best 14-6 active record.

The Preds are by no means a stingy defense or possession hog, but Saros cures a lot of ills. Nashville sports a 21st-ranked 49.1 CF% at 5-on-5 while allowing the 18th-most goals per game (3.11). The Preds are a run-of-the-mill opponent, and Saros has been doing the heavy lifting.

J.T. Compher prop: Under 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)