The Western Conference Finals begin tonight in Dallas as the Stars host the Edmonton Oilers.
In my NHL picks, I’m looking into a shot block market that has ballooned too much, hitting a unique derivative which is offering the best value for a low-scoring game, and banking on Jason Robertson to find the net with three or more shots tonight.
These are my three best NHL props and predictions for Oilers vs. Stars on May 23.
Oilers vs Stars prop picks and best bets for May 23
- Tanev Under 3.5 blocked shots (+105 at BET99)
- Race to four goals: Neither (+125 at BET99)
- Robertson Over 2.5 SOG (+115 at BET99)
Picks made on 5-23 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s Oilers vs Stars prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1:
We all know blocked shots increase in the playoffs. However, they’re more frequent later in a series, which makes series openers the best spots to hit some Unders.
Chris Tanev's odds have seen his blocked shot prop balloon to 3.5, and he is paying plus money on the Unders. The books aren’t anticipating a high-volume shooting game, as neither goalie has a save total above 25.5.
There is also talk about Jani Hakanpaa suiting backup, which would decrease all the other D-men’s ice time as the team has been going with a five-man rotation essentially.
I think Tanev’s blocks are inflated thanks to overtime games and big production in elimination games. The Edmonton Oilers rank 10th in the playoffs ahead of the Capitals in shot attempts/60, and there might not be enough volume for Tanev to hit four or more.
The Dallas scorekeeping has also been a little stingier with grading the prop.
Chris Tanev: Under 3.5 blocked shots (+105 at BET99)
Prop bet #2:
This total has moved from 6.5 to 6.0, which makes sense. The Oilers struggled to run up the score vs. Arturs Silovs and now face one of the best defensive teams that shut down the Avs. This is not going to be a high-scoring affair.
The Under 6.0 is -110 aside, but neither team to score four goals is paying a better +125. I don’t see either team walking away with a 5-1 win tonight, as both clubs have been great defensively in the playoffs.
Empty-net goals aren’t as frequent as in the regular season with more on the line. This prop hit in three of the last four games of Edmonton's series in a trio of 3-2 finals with no empty-net goals.
Stuart Skinner is the worst remaining goalie in the playoffs, but Edmonton has the No. 1 penalty kill and has played great defensively. This is also a team that is easier to shut down on the road, thanks to a lack of scoring depth, as Leon Draisaitl is playing with Evander Kane and Dylan Holloway.
Race to 4 goals: Neither (+125 at BET99)
Prop bet #3:
Hat-tip to Andy Frances for pointing this one out to me and selling me on Jason Robertson's odds of Over 2.5 SOG at +115. Very few people hate Robertson more than Andy, but he has a serious case for him tonight.
Robertson went 2-4 O/U on this prop vs. the Avs, but it wasn’t a great matchup for him as he couldn't keep up with Colorado's speed. Edmonton isn’t as fast and considering the forward is still guaranteed big minutes playing on the top line and PP1, he'll have chances tonight.
Robertson had shooting totals of 3.5 in the regular season and is a higher-frequency shooter at home where he gets the better shooting matchups thanks to the last change.
He averaged just under 3.0 shots on net at home during the regular season, and the move to +115 for the Over 2.5 is too much in a game where he should see 19 to 20 minutes of ice and get the majority of his shifts starts in the offensive zone.
Jason Robertson: Over 2.5 SOG (+115 at BET99)
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