The Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers will play their fourth matchup of the season on Saturday night as the visiting Leafs look to run their winning streak to five games, which includes a pair of wins over the Oilers.
The Buds have taken two of three from Edmonton to begin the year and sit atop the North Division with 14 points. Edmonton hasn’t been as successful with just six points across nine games.
NHL odds have the home team as a +105 underdog with the total opening at 6.5 shaded to the Over.
Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers on Saturday, January 30 (7:00 EST).
Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers Betting Preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: Jack Campbell G (Out), Joe Thornton F (Out), Nick Robertson F (Out).
Oilers: Mike Smith G (Out), Oscar Klefbom D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The favorite is 19-7 in the last 27 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers.
NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe Maple Leafs opened -130 at FanDuel, peaked at -142 this morning, then crept down to -126 this afternoon, with the Oilers a +108 underdog. As of 3:30 p.m. ET, Toronto is attracting 54 percent of bets and 60 percent of money. The total opened 6.5 (Over -125) and moved a few cents to 6.5 (Over -120), with 56 percent of bets on the Under and 52 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline Pick
Last season, the Maple Leafs weren’t known as a defensively responsible team and finished with the sixth-highest goals allowed per game at 3.17. Fast forward to 2021 and Toronto has embraced a system that is conceding 2.70 goals per game, with five of its seven wins coming by a single goal.
The Leafs have ripped off six regulation wins in their last seven games and haven’t given up more than three goals in any of those matches. Goalie Frederik Andersen has had to carry the load between the pipes with backup Jack Campbell on the IR, but the Danish goaltender has been more than up to the task recording four wins, a 2.20 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage over his last five starts.
Edmonton, on the other hand, has struggled to get decent play in goal all year. That shouldn't surprise anyone as No. 1 netminder Mikko Koskinen has been a giant letdown, despite starting all nine this year.
Veteran Mike Smith is on the IR, so the Oilers have had no choice but to roll with Koskinen, who is 3-6 SU with a 3.50 GAA and a sub-.900 SV%. Koskinen’s .895 mark ranks him 42nd in the league and the Edmonton goalie got beat five times against Toronto on Thursday.
Toronto has done a great job in shutting down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the three meetings so far this year. The pair have just two points at 5x5 and have had to rely on the powerplay to be a factor.
Both teams will be playing their sixth game in 11 days but the Oilers are on the frontend of a back-to-back that will see them welcome the Ottawa Senators on Sunday. At -125, this is a great price for a much better team.
PREDICTION: Toronto ML (-125)
Over/Under Pick
With a total of 6.5, Saturday night’s Canadian primetime match is the highest total on the board. The Leafs are 2-3 O/U with 6.5 totals this year, while the Oilers have seen a 6.5 total in all but two games this year and are 4-3 O/U.
The Leafs have hit the Over in back-to-back games but were on a 0-4 O/U run before a pair of 4-3 wins, plus Thursday’s 4-3 Toronto win needed five goals in the final 22 minutes to hit the Over—and those five goals included four powerplay goals.
Toronto is scoring on 42 percent of its powerplays this year, which is an unsustainable number as they finished last year with the sixth-best PP at 23.1 percent.
Edmonton has been drawing penalties at the sixth-lowest rate this year while Toronto’s seven minor penalties on Thursday were nearly three more penalties per game than its season average. Only nine total minor penalties were called over the first two matchups, so expecting a lot of man-advantage time from both teams might be ill-advised.
These are not the Leafs of old, who were an automatic Over team at 25-11-1 O/U on the road a year ago. Auston Matthews & Co. have bought into this defensive system and have been playing their best hockey since coach Sheldon Keefe took over last year.
PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (+100)
Maple Leafs vs Oilers Betting Card
- Toronto ML (-125)
- Under 6.5 (+100)
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