The top two teams in the East Division will do battle in an intriguing NHL betting matchup on Wednesday as the Washington Capitals travel to Boston to take on the Bruins.
A win in regulation would put the B’s in a tie for first with Washington, who has collected 13 of a possible 16 points in its last eight games. NHL odds have the Bruins as a -145 home favorite with the total opening at a flat 6.
Here are our free NHL picks and predictions for Washington Capitals vs. Boston Bruins on Wednesday, March 3 (7:00 p.m. ET).
Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins betting preview
Injuries
Capitals: Evgeny Kuznetzov F (Questionable), Michal Kempny D (Out).
Bruins: Kevan Miller D (Questionable), David Krejci F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings in Boston. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Bruins.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings pegged Boston a -162 favorite when this line first posted Monday night, the Bruins dipped to -141 a couple of times since, and they're -143 at noon ET today. Early moneyline action is two-way with a lean toward the Bruins, who are taking 52 percent of tickets and 54 percent of money. The total is pinned to 6, with the Over opening -118 and going to -120 a couple of times, but the Under is now -114. Ticket count is almost dead even, and the Over is landing 55 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
The Bruins look to take a share of the lead in the East Division as they trail the first-place Capitals by two points with two games in hand. The Bruins got their proverbial wheels back on the tracks Sunday with a 4-1 win over the Rangers, as Boston was coming off back-to-back blowout losses before the victory. At home this year, Boston is 5-1 SU but has yet to face the division’s best teams (Islanders and Washington).
Scoring hasn’t been easy for the Bruins, who bury goals at a league-average rate. It has been even more of a struggle over the last three weeks, with the power play going 3 for 20 (15 percent), which ranks 26th in the league. The Boston offense lives and dies by the power play and right now it hasn’t been easy-going for one of the league’s most potent units.
The Caps have enjoyed offensive success all year with their 3.43 goal per game mark but it has been their commitment to keeping points off the board that has helped them go 6-2 SU in their last eight. In those eight games, Washington has held its opponent to two or fewer goals five times.
Without No. 1 goalie Ilya Samsonov, the Caps have been leaning heavily on rookie goalie Vitek Vanecek and, to a lesser degree, veteran Craig Anderson. Both goalies sit outside the Top 40 in high-danger save percentage and have low pedigrees, so Washington has had to pay more attention to the back end.
This approach has translated to a spot at the top of the East Division—and Samsonov returned to the lineup on Sunday.
Washington has played Boston twice this year – over a month ago – and despite a 1-1 SU record, opened both games with 3-0 leads. The subsequent collapses were near Toronto-like, but the Capitals at +125 is a great price for a team that has proven they can get leads against Boston.
PREDICTION: Washington ML (+125)
Over/Under pick
The Over is 2-0 on the year in the matchup with a total of 15 goals being scored. Looking closer at the quality of those scores, however, we see that the most previous game – a 5-3 Boston win – had a total of 4.19 expected goals. The game before that, a 4-3 OT Washington win, had 5.46 expected goals. These high scores were made possible by the unlikely Boston comebacks in both contests.
Outside of the two uncharacteristic losses, Boston is 2-4-1 O/U in its previous seven and 0-3 O/U in its last three on home ice. The Bruins have failed to capitalize on their scoring opportunities this year and have the league’s fifth-worst scoring chance shooting percentage of 11.39 percentage. To put that into perspective, the Flyers are scoring on 11.87 percent of all their shots—not just scoring chances.
The Capitals have seen some of the highest-scoring games this year but a recent commitment to defense has had them hit the Under in five of their last eight. No opponent has scored more than two regulation goals in their last four games and Washington has given up four or more goals just once since February 16—a span of eight games.
Looking at special teams, the Bruins have had one of the best penalty-killing units all year but are scoring with the man advantage at just 10 percent over the last month. Washington has also fallen off its season’s pace on the PP as it's scoring at a 21 percent clip on the power play since February 4, compared to its season average of 29 percent.
With Boston back on track, we could see them with another defensive performance like last Sunday, in which it yielded just 21 shots. The B’s allow the fewest shots on and at the net per game and with first place on the line, we like this one to be a close battle. This is the first time that Boston has seen a total of 6 or higher all year.
PREDICTION: Under 6 (-110)
Capitals vs Bruins betting card
- Washington ML (+125)
- Under 6 (-110)
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