It's going to be a Blue Christmas for Tua Tagovailoa, who has been benched by the Dolphins. With Miami breaking in a rookie QB, my NFL props are betting on RB De'Von Achane to carry the offense.
See why I'm backing Achane, Jacoby Brissett, and Aaron Rodgers with my favorite NFL player props for Week 16 in the NFL.
NFL Week 16 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jacoby Brissett |
Over 37.5 pass attempts | -120 |
 De'Von Achane |
Over 82.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Aaron Rodgers |
Over 20.5 pass completions | -138 |
 Travis Etienne |
Under 60.5 rush yards | -114 |
 Chris Olave |
Over 61.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 16
Prop pick: Jacoby Brissett Over 37.5 pass attempts
Kyler Murray who? Jacoby Brissett gone over his passing yards total in all nine of his starts this season. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in six straight contests, averaging a whopping 45.7 pass attempts per game over that span.
The Arizona Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have practically abandoned that part of their offense. They are second in the NFL in passing play percentage (65.4%), with that number ballooning to 72.5% over the last six weeks.
The Cardinals are hosting the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in a beautiful 76-degree day at State Farm Stadium. That should lead to plenty of throwing from a pair of teams with nothing to play for except pride.
Prop pick: De'Von Achane Over 82.5 rushing yards
With the Miami Dolphins starting seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers at QB expect them to lean on their rushing attack against a piss-poor Bengals run defense. Cincinnati is 30th in the NFL in defensive rush EPA and allows a league-high 157.9 rushing yards per game.
Even if the Bengals sell out to stop the run, they won't be able to contain Achane. They allow 5.0 yards per carry when stacking the box, and De'Von Achane averages 5.8 yards per attempt when running against a stacked box.
Achane is coming off a game where he was limited to 60 yards on 12 carries due to a negative game script. However, he had rushed for more than 90 yards in his previous four contests, averaging 130.0 rushing yards per game over that span.
Prop pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 completions
Aaron Rodgers is coming off back-to-back contests where he completed 23 passes in wins against the Dolphins and Ravens. The four-time MVP is proving that he still has something left in the tank, and he faces a struggling Detroit Lions pass defense in Week 16.
The Lions are 25th in the league in dropback EPA since Week 9. Their injury-depleted secondary is getting picked apart with Detroit allowing 24.3 completions per game over the last three contests.
With the Lions 7-point faves on Sunday, expect a negative game script for the Pittsburgh Steelers with plenty of passing. Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in six of his last nine games and should eclipse that number again.
Prop pick: Travis Etienne Under 60.5 rush yards
After a red-hot start to the season, Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. has cooled off. Etienne has logged fewer than 60 rushing yards in six of his last 10 games and is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry over that span.
He was held to fewer than 35 rushing yards and less than 3.0 ypa in two of his last three games. What's especially concerning about those numbers is that they came with a positive game script against terrible Titans and Jets defenses.
He'll have a much tougher time in Week 16 against a Denver stop unit that allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game (90.9) on 3.9 yards per carry. Etienne is at his best on outside zone runs, where he averages 6.9 yards per rush. However, the Broncos allow just 3.3 yards per rush on outside zone attempts.
Prop pick: Chris Olave Over 61.5 receiving yards
New Orleans Saints wideout Chris Olave reeled in six catches for 85 yards last week. He has logged at least 62 receiving yards in six of his last nine games, and he's finally getting good quarterback play with Tyler Shough under center.
Olave gets a mouth-watering matchup this week at home against the New York Jets, who traded away top corner Sauce Gardner at the deadline. The Jets are 31st in the league in defensive dropback EPA while ranking 28th in DVOA against No. 1 WRs.
Olave has been the Saints' only reliable pass catcher after they traded Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks, so expect him to get fed the ball. This is a five-star play according to EV Analytics, which is projecting 71.57 yards for Olave.
NFL Week 16 prop betting card
- Brissett o37.5 pass attempts (-120)
- Achane o82.5 rush yards (-114)
- Rodgers o20.5 completions (-138)
- Etienne u60.5 rush yards (-114)
- Olave o61.5 receiving yards (-114)
My NFL weekly props column is 39-31 this season for +3.86 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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