It's going to be a Blue Christmas for Tua Tagovailoa, who has been benched by the Dolphins. With Miami breaking in a rookie QB, my NFL props are betting on RB De'Von Achane to carry the offense.
See why I'm backing Achane, Jacoby Brissett, and Aaron Rodgers with my favorite NFL player props for Week 16 in the NFL.
NFL Week 16 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jacoby Brissett |
Over 37.5 pass attempts | -120 |
 De'Von Achane |
Over 82.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Aaron Rodgers |
Over 20.5 pass completions | -138 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 16
Prop pick: Jacoby Brissett Over 37.5 pass attempts
Kyler Murray who? Jacoby Brissett gone over his passing yards total in all nine of his starts this season. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in six straight contests, averaging a whopping 45.7 pass attempts per game over that span.
The Arizona Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have practically abandoned that part of their offense. They are second in the NFL in passing play percentage (65.4%), with that number ballooning to 72.5% over the last six weeks.
The Cardinals are hosting the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in a beautiful 76-degree day at State Farm Stadium. That should lead to plenty of throwing from a pair of teams with nothing to play for except pride.
Prop pick: De'Von Achane Over 82.5 rushing yards
The Miami Dolphins have decided to bench quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and start rookie Quinn Ewers on Sunday. The Phins will lean on their rushing attack to take pressure off Ewers, who lasted until the seventh round of the draft.
That means plenty of work for running back De'Von Achane against the Cincinnati Bengals. Achane is coming off a 60-yard performance against Pittsburgh. However, he had rushed for more than 90 yards in his previous four contests, averaging 130.0 rushing yards per game over that span.
Cincinnati is 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and allows a league-high 157.9 rushing yards per game.
Even if the Bengals sell out to stop the run, they won't be able to contain Achane. They allow 5.0 yards per carry when stacking the box, and Achane averages 5.8 yards per attempt when running against a stacked box.
Prop pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 completions
Aaron Rodgers is coming off back-to-back contests where he completed 23 passes in wins against the Dolphins and Ravens. The four-time MVP is proving that he still has something left in the tank, and he faces a struggling Detroit Lions pass defense in Week 16.
The Lions are 25th in the league in dropback EPA since Week 9. Their injury-depleted secondary is getting picked apart with Detroit allowing 24.3 completions per game over the last three contests.
With the Lions 7-point faves on Sunday, expect a negative game script for the Pittsburgh Steelers with plenty of passing. Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in six of his last nine games and should eclipse that number again.
NFL Week 16 prop betting card
- Brissett o37.5 pass attempts (-120)
- Achane o82.5 rush yards (-114)
- Rodgers o20.5 completions (-138)
My NFL weekly props column is 39-31 this season for +3.86 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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