Maryland vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Lockdown Defense on Full Display

Two highly-ranked college basketball powers will meet on Sunday afternoon as the No. 13 Maryland Terrapins and No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers face off at Barclays Center.

Maryland is coming off its first loss of the season at Wisconsin on Tuesday to find themselves at 8-1 on the year. The Volunteers are also 8-1 and have won seven straight games, including a double-digit win over Kansas.

Will the Terrapins be able to avoid back-to-back losses away from home? Read our college basketball picks and predictions for Maryland vs. Tennessee below to find out. 

Maryland vs Tennessee best odds

Maryland vs Tennessee picks and predictions

Both teams rely heavily on playing strong defense to find themselves on the winning end of games this season. Maryland ranks 36th in the nation, allowing only 61.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Tennessee ranks third in the country at 51.2 points allowed per contest.

One defense relies on forcing turnovers and the other forces bad shots. The Vols rank third in the country in steals per game and 48th in blocks per game. They also force 19.9 turnovers per game, good for fourth in the nation. The Vols also limit opponents to just 32.7% shooting.

Maryland excels at keeping the pace down and forcing bad shots. The Terps only average 69.2 possessions per game and allow their opponents to put up 57.1 field goal attempts per contest. They then only allow those opponents to average 39.5% from the field and 26.9% from 3-point range. Maryland also averages 4.3 blocks per game. 

The Vols may be getting back defensive menace Santiago Vescovi back after missing the last two games. The senior guard has at least one steal in every single game this year and helped shut down Kansas freshman Gradey Dick in their 64-50 win over the Jayhawks. Vescovi can help make things difficult for Hakim Hart, Maryland’s best shooter.

Maryland was only able to manage 59 points on Tuesday against a tough Wisconsin team. Things are only getting tougher on Sunday against these Vols. Tennessee has only allowed two opponents to even reach 51 points this season. Kansas just scored 98 points on the road at Missouri, but could only muster 50 against this Tennessee team. 

This is going to be a very slow-paced game and a true Brooklyn slugfest. Tennessee has played four games on neutral courts already this season and those games averaged only 128.3 points each. Neither team is likely to reach 70 points in this contest, which makes for an easy Under bet. 

My best bet: Under 132.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Maryland vs Tennessee spread analysis

This is truly a battle of two evenly-matched teams. Both programs are 8-1 straight up and rely heavily on defense. They have a similar strength of schedules, each having a win against a ranked opponent and a loss against an unranked opponent away from home. However, one team may just be better at what they do than the other. 

Tennessee is much better at forcing turnovers and is slightly better than Maryland at not allowing opponents to make their shots. If Vescovi plays, that will also give the Vols a slight advantage in depth as well. They're also the better rebounding team, averaging 15.0 offensive rebounds per game. 

They're 6-3 against the spread this season and covered five of their last six contests. That is even more impressive given that they have been favored in every single game this season and all, but three were double-digit spreads. Their ATS differential is +43.0 on the season.

I feel strongly that the Vols are going to win this game and the spread is low enough, where that should also mean a cover. Maryland has failed to cover two of the past four games and Tennessee has covered six of their past seven games against a team with a winning percentage greater than .600. That trend should continue Sunday. 

Maryland vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

Maryland shot only 38.2% from the field against Wisconsin and turned the ball over 14 times. A repeat performance against Tennessee will likely make it hard for them to even reach 50 points in this matchup. When Tennessee played Kansas, they held the Jayhawks to shooting 32.1% from the field and forced 15 turnovers. 

Both teams have hit the Under in six of their nine games this season even though both teams have played a total lower than this game’s total. The Under is 20-8 in the Volunteers' last 28 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Vols thrive in low-scoring games against good opponents.

Neither team is going to want to push the pace and there will be few opportunities for fast breaks. Even if this game is close and comes down to the wire, it would likely take extra time to get close to this total. I love the Under here.

Maryland vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in the Volunteers' last seven games overall. Find more College basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Tennessee.

Maryland vs Tennessee game info

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