Kansas vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Jayhawks' Slide Continues in Short Turnaround

The No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (16-3) look to snap a two-game losing streak as they head to Waco for a meeting with the No. 21 Baylor Bears (14-5) in a Monday showdown between two ranked Big 12 powers. 

While Kansas is reeling, Baylor has been hot. Winners of four straight, the Bears’ confidence is at an all-time high as they head into a tough matchup against one of the country’s best teams.

Who's got the edge in this matchup? Read our college basketball betting picks below to find out. 

Kansas vs Baylor best odds

Kansas vs Baylor picks and predictions

After playing with fire to begin Big 12 play, Kansas finally got burned. Bill Self’s squad suffered a narrow 83-82 midweek defeat in overtime to rival Kansas State before getting the doors blown off in an 83-60 loss to TCU on Saturday. Considered the nation’s second-best team heading into the week by the AP Poll, questions now remain about where this team currently stands. 

Such is life in the Big 12. With nine teams ranked within the Top 40 on KenPom, conference play is a gauntlet of a schedule. When you go against quality opposition twice a week, perfection simply isn't attainable. The road doesn’t get any easier with a short turnaround on Monday against a tough Baylor team.

Kansas ranks ninth overall in KenPom and has been good — but not great — on both sides of the ball. The Jayhawks check in at 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency while averaging 76.3 ppg and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing 67.1 ppg. 

After a disastrous 0-3 start in Big 12 play, Baylor has responded with a four-game winning streak. The latest victory didn’t come easy, as the Bears trailed for most of the second half before prevailing for a 62-60 win over Oklahoma on Saturday. The Bears rank 14th in KenPom, checking in at second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 93rd defensively.

It’s evident that Kansas is in a funk right now. While it can be tempting the brush off the TCU blowout loss and chalk it up as a fluke result due to hot shooting (TCU shot 54% from the field and 53% from 3-point range), that doesn’t quite tell the whole picture.

Self repeatedly mentioned his team’s lack of ability to guard its opponents during this recent stretch. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma all found offensive success against the Jayhawks, so the explanation goes further than TCU getting hot. 

Self also challenged his bench, who scored a total of five points against the Horned Frogs before the game reached garbage time and also struggled to defend. Finding reliable secondary scoring options outside of Jalen Wilson has also been a challenge of late. 

It’s clear this team is working through a few issues, and a short turnaround on the road against a streaking Baylor team may not be a cure-all spot. It’s possible this line continues to come in throughout the day, so waiting for the best number may be prudent. 

My best bet: Baylor -2.5 (-105 at WynnBET)

Kansas vs Baylor spread analysis

Baylor opened at -3.5 before quickly getting bet down to -2.5. The current line seems more appropriate, and it’s possible this line continues to drop a tad as money comes in on the Jayhawks as rare underdogs. 

After failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games, the Jayhawks are now just 7-12 ATS on the season. The good news for Kansas backers is that the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two schools and the road team is 24-11-1 in the last 36 meetings. 

I’ll be on the other side of this one, backing a Baylor team that is 3-0-1 ATS during its four-game winning streak. Despite struggling against Oklahoma, freshman guard Keyonte George has emerged as one of the nation’s most talented players.

Veterans Adam Flagler (16.0 ppg) and LJ Cryer (13.7 ppg) provide ample scoring support, while forward Jalen Bridges has come alive with double digits in every Big 12 game except for one. 

Kansas is down to just 2-5 ATS in conference play. It’s evident by now that the Jayhawks are not immune to such a challenging Big 12 schedule, and I’m not taking it for granted that it will be so simple to right the ship against the Bears. 

Kansas vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

After opening at 150, the total currently resides between 149 and 149.5. Both teams have been profitable to the Over this season with identical marks at 11-8. 

In its seven conference games, Baylor is 5-2 to the Over. The Bears average 79.6 ppg and have been extremely effective from downtown, converting on 36.2% of their 3-point attempts while ranking 25th in made threes per game (9.4). They shoot at a high volume and convert at an efficient clip, led by the three-headed monster of George, Flagler, and Cryer. 

Kansas’ defense has shown plenty of cracks lately. While it's possible the Jayhawks answer Self’s challenge to improve defensively, it may not happen immediately against such a potent offensive force. 

Offensively, Kansas ranks 74th in field goal percentage (46.5%) and 74th in 3-point percentage (36.1%). This is a matchup where some of the secondary options like Gradey Dick, KJ Adams, Kevin McCullar, and Dajuan Harris can get back on track. Baylor is nothing special defensively, ranking 211th in field goal defense (43.7% and 169th in 3-point defense (33.2%).\

I'd expect both teams to have a ton of offensive success. It's a high number, but it's that way for a reason. I'm leaning Over on the total.

Kansas vs Baylor betting trend to know

Kansas has failed to cover the spread in four straight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Kansas.

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