Kansas vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Expect a Slogfest in Pivotal Big 12 Showdown

With much on the line for Saturday afternoon's conference duel between two Top 25 programs, Phil Naessens expects a slower-paced affair in Waco. Find out why by checking out our Kansas vs. Baylor betting picks.

Mar 1, 2024 • 17:49 ET • 4 min read
RayJ Dennis Baylor Bears NCAAB
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The No. 7 ranked Kansas Jayhawks and No. 15 Baylor Bears are trying to end their respective seasons near the top of the Big 12 Conference standings to avoid playing a first-round conference tournament matchup.

Kansas saw its two-game winning streak snapped Tuesday night at home against BYU, while Baylor is coming off a hard-fought 62-54 win over TCU, shooting just 37% from the field and allowing 22 points from turnovers. 

Who will win Saturday’s conference matchup? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with our free college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Baylor on Saturday, March 2.

Kansas vs Baylor best odds

Kansas vs Baylor picks and predictions

The last time these two programs met, the Baylor Bears committed 21 turnovers, shot 30% from downtown, allowed 17 points from turnovers, and lost by three points to the Kansas Jayhawks.

That preventable road loss likely kept Baylor from at least a shot at winning the Big 12, and another loss to Kansas would mean the Bears probably begin tournament play on March 12, rather than receive a double-bye and a semifinal berth as one of the conference's Top-4 seeds.

Kansas allowed 13 triples Tuesday night against the BYU Cougars, suffering an upset loss at Allen Fieldhouse, and likely forcing the Jayhawks to win out their schedule to finish with a Top 4 seed in the Big 12 tournament.

Both programs enter this matchup with injury concerns; Kansas guard Kevin McCullar Jr. has missed five conference games with a bruised knee and likely won’t suit up, while Baylor guard Langston Love has missed the Bears' previous two tilts, and his status for Saturday is unknown.

Losing McCullar has hurt the Jayhawks on the offensive end of the floor. They look confused down the stretch without their go-to guy, and as a result, their previous five games have ended 1-4-0 to the Under.

All the while, Baylor isn’t hanging big numbers on programs as it did earlier in the season. The Bears average 86.2 points per tilt at home but have failed to clear that number in four of their previous five home contests, with the Over going 3-2-0.

Baylor plays at a snail's pace, and its deliberate style of play will produce a slow-paced slog of a game that will likely become physical. The Bears' interior defense is stout and will slow down Jayhawks center Hunter Dickenson, so I'm all over the Under on Saturday. 

My best bet: Under 147 (-114 at BetRivers)

Kansas vs Baylor same-game parlay

Under 147

Baylor -4

Take Baylor to come out firing and cover the -4 (-115) spread. The Jayhawks are just 3-5-0 ATS on the road this season, and now face a Bears program with an 8-5-1 ATS mark on home floor.

Baylor boasts a +19 winning margin at home, and Kansas has barely outscored opponents over its eight away contests this season (+0.7 winning margin).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Kansas vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

Baylor opened as anywhere from -4.5 to -5, and that makes plenty of sense considering the loss of McCullar and Kansas's ATS struggles on the road.

We’ll likely see some slight back-and-forth movement on the spread, and tremendous middling opportunity may present itself if Kansas +5 (-110) dips to Baylor -3.5 or fewer.

The 147 (-114) point total at BetRivers hasn’t budged a bit and is the best number by far. Under 146.5 is available at most shops (-110), but the vig is all over the place and as low as -110 to as high as -120.

One interesting thing is both programs' Over/Under records against nationally ranked opponents, as Kansas is 4-5-0 to the Under, and Baylor is 2-6-0 to the Under when meeting a nationally ranked foe.

Kansas vs Baylor betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1-1 in the Jayhawks' last six overall, and is also 4-1 in the Bears' previous five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Baylor.

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Kansas vs Baylor game info

Location: Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX
Date: Saturday, March 2, 2024
Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET

Kansas vs Baylor key injuries

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