Indiana vs Michigan Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wolverines in Sheep's Clothing

The Indiana Hoosiers (17-7, 8-5) have been on a roll as of late, winners of seven of their last eight and coming off back-to-back wins against Purdue and Rutgers in the last week. They will look to keep the momentum going when they travel to face the Michigan Wolverines (14-10, 8-5), who need a late-season run to have any chance of making the tournament.

Can the Hoosiers complete one of their strongest regular season weeks in program history or have they burned too bright too quickly, paving way for a Michigan upset?

Continue reading for free college basketball picks for Indiana vs. Michigan on Saturday, February 11th.

Indiana vs Michigan best odds

Indiana vs Michigan picks and predictions

College basketball is always full of chaos and the last week has done nothing short to deliver on that. The AP and coaches' poll from two weeks ago had Purdue atop the rankings with every single first-place vote going to the Boilermakers. Indiana had different plans for them that Saturday, upsetting the one-loss juggernaut 79-74 in their always-rowdy Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

And the Hoosiers did this all despite shooting at nearly the same clip from the field (52.6% to 50.9% FG%) on equal volume (57 FGA for both) while losing the battle on the glass rather decisively (Purdue had 38 rebounds to Indiana's 22). Indiana was able to keep the game close by craftily forcing 16 turnovers while taking care of the rock on their end (eight surrendered).

They then carried that monstrous win into Tuesday's game against 24th-ranked Rutgers, securing a 66-60 home win. Star forward Trayce Jackson-Davis chipped in 20 points, 18 rebounds, and 6 assists following his 25 point, 6 rebound performance against Purdue. The senior has elevated his game as of late, averaging 22.9 points and 14.2 rebounds in his last eleven games after averaging just 16.4 points and 8.2 rebounds in his first 10.

On Saturday, Jackson-Davis and the Hoosiers will have to leave the comfort of home and will travel to take on the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan has had its fair share of struggles, suffering three losses in the opening month of the season and then failing to find its footing since. After a 3-0 start against the Big Ten, the Wolverines managed to only split the 10 conference games since.

But with their backs pressed against the wall when it comes to generating a final opportunity to make the Big Dance, things have looked better as of late. Michigan has rattled off three straight wins, including a 17-point win over Northwestern and a 21-point win over Nebraska its last time out. Prior to that, it had even played the seemingly unbeatable Purdue to a close 75-70 loss.

Michigan matches up well with Indiana as well. It won't turn over the ball at an absurd clip like Purdue did against Indiana, as the Wolverines rank third in the nation in turnovers committed per game. The Wolverines can replicate Purdue's massive advantage on the glass, as they rank 29th in defensive rebounding to Purdue's 41st (remember, Purdue outrebounded Indiana 38 to 22). They also rank near the Top 50 in limiting personal fouls, the exact thing that doomed Rutgers against Indiana earlier this week (Indiana shot 24 free throws to Rutgers' 10).

Sure, the unranked home team being favored against a ranked opponent is the classic and cute pick all the time on a slate like Saturday's. However, Michigan's position is ultimately as sensible and favorable as it gets. It’s catching Indiana in its first road game after two arguably flukey wins at home, in desperate need of its own resume-building, and structurally has what it takes to beat a team like Indiana.

My best bet: Michigan Wolverines -2.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Indiana vs Michigan spread analysis

The spread opened with Michigan as 2-point favorites, but has since moved to -2.5 to -3 across the market.

Indiana is 12-11-1 against the spread this season, good for a 52.2% cover rate. As road underdogs the Hoosiers have gone 1-4 against the spread, and only 30 teams in the nation cover at a lower rate than the Hoosiers have in that split.

They have covered in six of their last eight, but had failed to cover in the seven games prior to that. In the five games they have been underdogs of three or less points, they have failed to win or cover in four and, losing by an average of 9.5 points.

The Wolverines are also 12-11-1 against the spread this season (52.2%). As home favorites, they’ve gone 6-5 against the spread, and have now covered in three straight games, doing so by an average of 11.8 points per game. They are 5-0 ATS when favored by five or less points.

Indiana vs Michigan Over/Under analysis

The total for Saturday's matchup opened at 144 and has largely stayed at that number across the market.

The Hoosiers have played 14-9-1 to the Over this season (60.9%), but have gone only 4-3-1 that way in road games and 7-5-1 in conference games.

They've split their totals in their last six but have gone 10-5-1 to the Over in their last 16. Saturday's total of 144 leans towards the higher end of totals they have played in, having gone 4-3 to the Over in games at or above that number.

Michigan has gone 14-10 to the Over (58.3%) this season. At home they have been more neutral on totals, going 7-6 that way in that split. In conference games, they’ve gone 8-5 to the Over.

The Wolverines have gone Over the total in four of their last five, and Saturday's total is more in line with projected scoring environments they have seen this season. In the 10 games they’ve played at or above Saturday's number, they’ve gone an even 5-5 on the total.

Indiana vs Michigan betting trend to know

Michigan is 5-0 against the spread when favored by five or less points. Indiana is 1-4 against the spread this season as road underdogs. Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Michigan.

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