Duke vs Virginia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cavaliers Storm Out of the Gates

The Duke Blue Devils head to Charlottesville to face off against the No. 8 Virginia Cavaliers in ACC basketball action on Saturday afternoon.

The Blue Devils are trying to bounce back from a lopsided loss and need to put it together as a team down the stretch. That won't be easy against the Cavaliers, who look like a Final Four contender and have been defeated only once at home this season.

College basketball odds opened with the Cavaliers as 6-point favorites with the Over/Under at 126. Here is my best free Duke vs. Virginia college basketball picks and predictions for February 11.

Duke vs Virginia best odds

Duke vs Virginia picks and predictions

Duke is a talented but extremely inexperienced team that utilizes five freshmen in its rotation and is led by first-year head coach Jon Scheyer. While you might assume that lack of experience would prove more costly at the end of games it has seemed to be an issue early in contests — especially in front of hostile crowds, where the Blue Devils seem rattled and sloppy before settling in. 

The Blue Devils are just 2-5 SU and just 1-6 ATS in road games this season with all of those taking place in conference play. In four of those five defeats, they had a massive deficit at halftime. They trailed Wake Forest by 9 points, North Carolina State by 22, Virginia Tech by 7, and (most recently) Miami by 14 heading into the break. 

Now they face a Virginia team that has gone 11-1 at home with an average first-half scoring margin of plus-8.0 points per game. 

This is the first time these conference rivals have faced off this season, which means that Duke's freshman class could take a while to adjust to Tony Bennett's renowned Pack Line defense. The best way to pick apart that defense is either by running the floor in transition, before the Cavaliers can set up on D, or by knocking down shots from the perimeter — both areas that the Blue Devils struggle in. 

The Blue Devils also struggle to take care of the ball and rank 14th in the conference with a minus-3.0 turnover margin per game against ACC foes while the Cavaliers are second at plus-3.3. 

Count on some early miscues from this green Blue Devils lineup and back the home side on the first-half spread.

My best bet: Virginia first half -3 (-115 at bet365)

Duke vs Virginia spread analysis

The Cavaliers are in a three-way tie atop the ACC standings with a 10-3 record while the Blue Devils are in fifth place with an 8-5 mark, and a win here would be crucial towards making a conference championship run. 

That's easier said than done, though, against Virginia who has lost at home just once this season — against No. 2 Houston back in December.

Virginia is coming off a 63-50 win versus North Carolina State to bounce back from a road defeat against rival Virginia Tech. Prior to that loss to the Hokies, the Cavaliers had won seven games in a row.

This is a very well-balanced squad that is experienced and looks poised for a March Madness run. The Cavaliers have four players averaging double-digits in points led by Armaan Franklin who is putting up 12.2 ppg. The Cavaliers are 26th in offense efficiency and 23rd on the defensive end of the floor. 

Duke is fresh off an ugly 22-point loss on the road to Miami and is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. Inexperience has been a big issue for the Blue Devils who have had issues with turnovers and outside shooting. 

Kyle Filipowski has been the best of a vaunted freshman class and leads the team in points (15.5) and rebounds (9.3) per game. Dariq Whitehead is expected to return to the lineup today after missing the last four games with a leg injury but has generally failed to live up to expectations after being a consensus Top-3 recruit. 

The Blue Devils are 32nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while ranking 57th on offense.

One area where they will have an edge is inside where they have a size advantage and rank fifth in the country in rebound rate. The Cavs surrendered 40 points in the paint to Virginia Tech last week and will need to shore up that interior defense against a Duke squad with several impact bigs. 

Duke vs Virginia Over/Under analysis

We're seeing an extremely low total of 126 today due to the sluggish pace that Virginia prefers, Duke's struggles on offense, and the stingy defense of both squads. 

The Cavaliers are 10th in the country in scoring defense (60.4 ppg allowed) while the Blue Devils are 43rd with 64.1 ppg allowed. 

That said, while the Cavaliers are very methodical with the ball and rank near the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo they are also extremely efficient. They have the eighth-lowest turnover rate in the nation while shooting a sizzling 38% from long range (18th-best).

It will be interesting to see if they can have success from beyond the arc against a Blue Devils squad that limits foes to a 30.5 3PT%. 

The Blue Devils have also gotten better at protecting the rim lately thanks to emerging freshman Dereck Lively II, who has 4.2 blocks per game over the last six contests. 

Duke vs Virginia betting trend to know

The Blue Devils are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Virginia.

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