Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Tatum Keeps Hitting From Downtown

With six games on the NBA schedule, there is no shortage of basketball betting value to be found in the player props market.

It’s always nice to get plus money with a Jayson Tatum prop, while the Knicks’ iso-style offense could mean a tough day of dishing out dimes against the long and athletic Bucks’ defense. Franz Wagner should also bring his brand of magic to the Sacramento kingdom on Monday.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for January 9.

NBA player props for January 9

• Tatum Over 3.5 3s
• Brunson Under 6.5 assists
• Wagner Over 20.5 points

Picks made on 1/09/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Downtown dominant

The Chicago Bulls are doing their best to try and turn their season around. The Bulls have won three games in a row, which includes impressive wins over the Nets and 76ers.

Chicago’s string of matchups against Eastern Conference contenders continues when it welcomes the Boston Celtics to town on Monday night. While Jayson Tatum is a bad matchup for basically everyone, he could pose some massive problems for the Bulls.

Tatum is among the betting favorites to win NBA MVP. He’s averaging 30.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Tatum is also taking more threes than ever before in his career at 9.2 per game, hitting 35.1% of his attempts. Expect him to keep letting it fly tonight against the Bulls.

Chicago is one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending the perimeter. The Bulls rank next-to-last in opponent 3-point shooting percentage while surrendering the fifth most attempts from deep per game.

That matchup is the reason we are getting a little bit of an elevated number when it comes to Tatum’s 3-pointer prop. The bonus, however, is that we are getting offered very nice plus money.

It’s enough to back the Over here, considering Tatum could take some extra shots in this matchup.

Jayson Tatum Prop: Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+140)

Bailing on Brunson

The New York Knicks visit the Milwaukee Bucks in an intriguing matchup of Eastern Conference teams on Monday night. The Knicks come into this one playing well, winners of four in a row.

Despite sitting in third place in the East, the Bucks continue to play inconsistent basketball, going 3-6 straight up and against the spread over their last nine games.

While these teams are trending in opposite directions at the moment, the Knicks don’t necessarily match up well with the Bucks. New York plays a lot of iso-ball and ranks just 26th in the NBA in assist rate. Generating your own shots against a long and athletic Bucks defense is no easy task. 

Meanwhile, Milwaukee ranks fourth in the NBA when it comes to opponent assists per game, so this all adds up to a tough day for Jalen Brunson to be dishing out the dimes.

Brunson averages 6.6 assists per game this season, and when you factor in the matchup, the Under looks like a solid play. Brunson has gone Under that number in two of his last three games and has totaled just seven assists combined in his two previous games against the Bucks this season.

With Jrue Holiday healthy and hounding Brunson all night, the Knicks point guard should stay Under his assist total once again.

Jalen Brunson Prop: Under 6.5 assists (-113)

German delight

Monday features a matchup of surprisingly competitive teams when the Orlando Magic visit the Sacramento Kings. The Magic have gone 10-5 over their last 15 games, while the Kings sit in fifth place in the Western Conference.

The Kings have been a really fun story to this point in the NBA season, but they have hit a bit of a bump in the road of late. Sacramento has dropped three of its last eight games SU while going 1-7 ATS. One of the Magic’s young stars could keep those struggles going tonight.

We are talking about Franz Wagner, of course. In 39 games this season, Wagner is averaging 20.1 points while shooting 48.5% from the floor, which includes 35.1% from 3-point range. The German stretch-four has upped his game of late, putting up 21.7 points while shooting 38% from beyond the arc over his last 15 contests.

Sacramento allows the second-most points in the paint per game in the NBA while ranking 20th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Wagner is basically a matchup nightmare for the Kings, particularly when Domantas Sabonis should have his hands full guarding Wendell Carter Jr.

I’m backing Wagner to go Over 20.5 points tonight — a number he’s eclipsed nine times over the last 15 games.

Franz Wagner Prop: Over 20.5 points (-105)

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