Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Hart's Scoring Woes Continue

Beginning with a grudge match between the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, Sunday, January 22 features a jam-packed day of NBA action. We’ve surveyed all seven games to ferret out the best player prop value bets on the board.

Our three favorite NBA player prop picks feature CJ McCollum taking advantage of Miami’s scheme, the reinvigorated Kawhi Leonard, and Josh Hart’s curiously passive play.

NBA player props for January 22

• McCollum Over 3.5 3-pointers made
• Leonard Over 25.5 points
• Hart Under 9.5 points

Picks made on 1/22/2023 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Miami McCollum

The Miami Heat dominated the New Orleans Pelicans when they played earlier this week, but it’s the way they won it that matters for our purposes. Miami was able to strangle the Pelicans' offense from the inside out. It’s the Heat’s preferred method of victory, and it’s why they concede the second most 3-point attempts of any team in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass.

CJ McCollum responded to those opportunities by promptly canning five threes, but the Heat are only too happy to concede those if it means the overall Pels offense slows to a crawl. Precisely because the Heat won using this strategy and conceding those shots is why this is the bet to make.

None of the actions the Pels ran to free CJ up for his five threes were overly complex, and they didn’t have to be. The Heat sell out the paint so hard to prevent anything at the rim that they concede quality looks from players like McCollum as a matter of course.

He only needed a sliver of space off a Larry Nance Jr. screen to pull up and fire. Despite quality defense from the likes of Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo, CJ was able to get up nine 3-pointers and cash in on five of them.  CJ is getting up 7.6 3-point attempts per game, up to 9.3 attempts in Zion’s absence, and that should be even higher in this rematch against the Heat. McCollum was among the only effective offensive players that the Pels had.

CJ is shooting just a hair under 40% from distance on the season, and he’s generating a third of those makes without an assist, 84th percentile among all combo guards. Expect Miami to concede those shots again and for McCollum to make good on them.

CJ McCollum Prop: Over 3.5 3-pointers made (+105)

Above the Klaw

The panic meter has been worn out through overuse in Los Angeles. While Paul George and the others Clippers leaders have called for “urgency” the team continues to play largely listless ball. Well, the team minus one, as Kawhi Leonard has shown a true return to form recently. It has been so long since we’ve seen Kawhi at the peak of his powers, that his return to Terminator status over the last several games of Clippers’ ineptitude has flown under the radar.

Kawhi is one of the toughest covers in the NBA. He’s too strong to hang with on the block, and he’s also got one of the smoothest, simplest releases on his midrange pull-up and a soft touch to boot. His favored spots on the court are areas that few players can make a living from, but Leonard is among them.

Klawed his way to a season-high

???? @Kia Performance of the Game pic.twitter.com/nrgo97VxKR

— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) January 21, 2023

Kawhi is lethal from midrange, hitting more than 51% of his shots from there overall, and a dynamite 57% on attempts between four and 14 feet from the basket. Normal defenses are happy to concede those looks, which makes Leonard a one-man scheme-buster.

After two dramatic battles against Luka in the playoffs, you can be assured that Kawhi and the rest of the Clippers won’t treat this like just another game. Kawhi is averaging 30 points per game over his last five and had 33 against this same Mavericks team on Tuesday. The Klaw should be in full effect, and for him, that lately means a dominant scoring performance.

Kawhi Leonard Prop: Over 25.5 points (-108)

Hart's MIA offense

Josh Hart is a curious player.  He’s an underrated defender with wing size, a valuable enough commodity in the NBA as is.  And for a stretch last season when the Trail Blazers had shut down Damian Lillard and were scrounging around for offense, he showed a remarkable ability to ramp up his use and production. 

But as he’s gone back to playing alongside true offensive initiators again, he has significantly dialed back his aggression to a troubling degree. For one thing, he’s basically decided to stop taking 3-pointers. He’s down to just two attempts per game this season, the lowest of his career. He’s also down to just 13.7% usage, a borderline non-entity on offense, after racking up 24.5% with Portland last year.

He’s turning down open shots and it’s beginning to hurt the Portland offense, and he’s going to be facing competition for minutes now that Gary Payton II is a regular feature in the Portland rotation. GPII can fill the same role that Hart does, except he’s an even better on-ball defender and a more willing 3-point shooter. If Hart shows the level of timidity on offense he has the last several games, he could see his minutes cut against the Lakers, further increasing the chances of this Under cashing in.

Hart's scored nine or fewer points in five of his last six games. It’s a trend I expect to continue tonight.

Josh Hart Prop: Under 9.5 points (-105)

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