We're just past the midway point of the NBA regular season and injuries are starting to pile up across the league. That's an angle I'm trying to take advantage of today in the NBA player prop market.
Today, I'm backing a Phoenix Sun who's seen his production rise as his teammates fall while also betting on an oft-injured All-Star guard who consistently gets buckets when healthy.
Check out my best free NBA player prop picks for Saturday, January 21 below.
NBA player props for January 21
Picks made on 1/21/2023 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Beal's back
Bradley Beal returned to the floor on Wednesday after a five-game absence due to a hamstring injury. He was eased back into the lineup with a modest 29 minutes and 11 field goal attempts but still finished with 18 points.
With a couple of days off since then, expect Beal to see his minutes increase which means we're getting great value with his points total set at 19.5.
Beal injured his hamstring after just 13 minutes against the Bucks on January 3 but he had scored at least 20 points in 15 of his previous 17 contests. He averaged 24.5 ppg over that span and in one of the games where he went below this number he played just three minutes before picking up another hamstring injury.
If Beal is healthy he's practically a lock to go Over this number against an Orlando side that ranks 22nd in the league in defensive rating.
Bradley Beal Prop: Over 19.5 points (-120)
Crossing the Bridges
The Phoenix Suns are the most injury-plagued team in the league right now. Not only are they missing their All-Star backcourt of Chris Paul (13.5 ppg) and Devin Booker (27.1 ppg) but complementary scorers like Cam Payne (12.1 ppg), Cam Johnson (13.7 ppg), and Landry Shamet (9.5 ppg) are also sidelined by various injuries.
That has meant a growing offensive burden for center Deandre Ayton and wing Mikal Bridges. Bridges has scored more than 20 points in each of his last three games and is averaging 24.3 ppg in 37.3 mpg during that span.
Today, Bridges and the Suns host a Pacers team that is 24th in the league in scoring defense with 116.9 ppg allowed. They've been even worse lately, surrendering 130.5 ppg in their last four games.
With so many Suns players sidelined, somebody needs to keep taking (and making) shots for Phoenix and I think Bridges will continue to be that guy.
Mikal Bridges Prop: Over 17.5 points (-113)
Barnes gets his boards snatched
The O/U on Harrison Barnes' rebounds total is set at 4.5 and juiced towards the Over at -130.
Barnes is averaging 5.0 rebounds per game this season but he hasn't been that active on the glass lately. He has gone below this number in eight of his last 12 games and is averaging just 3.7 rpg despite logging 34.3 mpg during that span.
A big reason for his drop in rebounding production is the continued excellence of Domantas Sabonis, who leads the league with 12.7 rpg, and the growth of rookie Keegan Murray, who has pulled down double-digits in boards in his last two games.
With those guys gobbling up boards, there simply aren't that many loose rebounds for Barnes to go after. Take the Under on his rebounds total, which you can get at plus money.
Harrison Barnes Prop: Under 4.5 rebounds (+102 at FanDuel)
