Luka Doncic is set to return to the Mavericks' lineup after sitting out the last game, and is primed for a big night on the boards. Terry Rozier can increase his trade stock by torching the Rockets' suspect perimeter defense. And Josh Giddey is on a roll, but have sportsbooks adjusted enough?
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, January 18.
NBA player props for January 18
Picks made on 1/18/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Doncic dominates the glass
Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic sat out the team’s last game with a nagging ankle injury, but he is ready to suit up for tonight’s matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, and he should be primed for a big game on the boards.
We all know that there aren’t many better in the NBA at stuffing the stat sheet than Doncic. He’s averaging nine rebounds and 8.8 assists to go along with his 33.8 points per game. He’s been putting in even more work on the glass recently.
Doncic has bumped his rebounding average up to 11.2 over his last nine games, and he should keep that up tonight against the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The Hawks are an undersized team to begin with, and love to play small-ball lineups on top of that. The result is a team that ranks 28th in rebounding rate.
Furthermore, Atlanta takes the fourth-most shots per game in the NBA but isn’t very efficient, ranking 24th in effective field goal percentage. This means there are always lots of rebounds up for grabs in Hawks games, and the team ranks next-to-last in opponent rebounds per game.
I’m backing Doncic to do his thing and grab double-digit boards for the sixth time in his last nine games.
Luka Doncic Prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (+105)
Everything's coming up Rozier
It looks like another season is down the drain for the Charlotte Hornets, and rumors are starting to swirl that the team could be willing to move shooting guard Terry Rozier before the trade deadline.
Rozier isn’t having his greatest season shooting the basketball, hitting just 32.4% of his 3-point attempts, and is coming off consecutive tough performances against the Boston Celtics (3-for-12 from three). However, he has recently shown flashes of the guy who can be a great shooter, and one who can be a valuable addition to a more competitive team.
Rozier – who is a career 37.1% shooter from beyond the arc – was shooting 40% on 9.2 threes per game in his previous six games, and he’ll have a great opportunity to let it fly tonight against the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to perimeter defense. No team allows more attempted threes than the Rockets’ 39.2 per game. At the same time, they rank 24th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. That means there should be plenty of opportunities for Rozier to make it rain in this one.
Before the back-to-back against a solid Boston team, Rozier had hit three or more from downtown in five of six games. I like Rozier to up his trade value and have another solid night shooting the basketball in this matchup, so I'll take the Over on his made 3-pointers prop.
Terry Rozier Prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-127)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are without a doubt my favorite NBA League Pass team this season. The team has a young, exciting core featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey (and hopefully Chet Holmgren next season), and they play strong defense.
Our focus is on Giddey tonight, as he and the Thunder take on another upstart team in the Indiana Pacers. Giddey’s on a roll, and sportsbooks have made an adjustment, setting his points total for this matchup at 18.5. This may seem high considering he averages 16 points per game, but it is not high enough in my opinion, considering the OKC shooting guard has seen a big uptick in his usage lately.
Giddey was attempting 13.6 field goals per game this season, but over the last 10 games, that has jumped up to 16.1. He's been an uber-efficient 52.2% from the field in that span. Giddey has hit the 20-point plateau seven times over that 10-game stretch.
He’ll have a great opportunity to continue that run against Indiana. While the Pacers have also been a fun team this season, they have struggled on defense, particularly when it comes to containing guards.
The Pacers rank 21st in defensive rating overall, and they allow the most points per game to opposing guards in the NBA. Limiting SGA is likely going to be priority No. 1 for the Pacers, and that should open up even more opportunities for Giddey in this one.
Josh Giddey Prop: Over 18.5 points (-110)