We get treated to an awesome Western Conference matchup on Tuesday night as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.
OKC leads the West but Dallas is on fire winning 11 of its last 12 and in a game with some much star power you know we’ve got to have some Mavericks vs. Thunder props.
Here are my NBA picks and Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions for what should be a Wild West showdown.
Best Mavericks vs Thunder props for tonight
Irving 5+ rebs (+155 at bet365)
Hartenstein o11.5 pts (-110 at bet365)- Doncic u28.5 pts (-115 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-10
Mavericks vs Thunder player props for December 10
Prop bet #1: Kyrie Irving 5+ rebounds
One place the Dallas Mavericks will have an edge in this epic Western Conference clash is on the boards.
The Mavs are a solid rebounding team ranking 11th in rebounding rate, while the Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the NBA's worst teams at cleaning the glass. OKC ranks 29th in rebounding rate and dead last in opponent rebounds per game.
Now, some of that is because the Thunder have had to deal with several injuries to their big men, and while Isaiah Hartenstein is back, they still have plenty of room to improve.
So, the question is, which Mavs player do we target tonight? A little surprisingly I’m going with a guard. Kyrie Irving to be precise.
Irving is averaging 4.9 rebounds, but that number is on the rise, surging to 5.9 over his last eight. His rebounding prop sits at 3.5 and is unsurprisingly juiced to the Over.
Instead, let’s take Irving’s alternate rebounds of 5+, which is at the much more tantalizing price of +155. The Mavs guard has hauled down five or more boards six times in his last eight games and I like him to do it again tonight.
It doesn't hurt that our Covers Prop Projections have Irving to snag 5.5 rebounds.
Prop bet #2: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 11.5 Points
Speaking of Isaiah Hartenstein, he could also be primed for a big night.
Hartenstein has been rolling since missing the first 15 games of the season with a hand injury. The OKC big man is averaging 11.8 points on 56.8% shooting while adding 12.8 rebounds per game.
Hartenstein has been exactly what the Thunder have needed. He has put up 11+ points in six of the eight games since his return. Now, he had a mini-slump totaling just six points in games against the Jazz and Raptors, but he bounced back by putting up 12 points against the Pelicans last time out.
It feels like those games against the Jazz and Raps are exceptions and not the rule for Hartenstein and I like his odds against the Mavericks.
The paint is one area where the Thunder could have an edge, as Dallas ranks 21st in opponent points in the paint per game. In recent games, the Mavs allowed Raptors center Jakob Poeltl to put up 20 points and Trail Blazers big man Deandre Ayton went for 18.
Hartenstein’s topped this number five times this season and our Covres Prop Projections have him at 12.6 points for this matchup.
Prop bet #3: Luka Doncic Under 28.5 Points
The Mavericks have won 11 of their last 12, going 10-2 against the spread in the process. But let’s give ourselves a sweat in this final prop for this matchup against the Thunder and take Luka Doncic Under 28.5 points.
Any Luka points Under is an auto sweat because we know the guy can go for 40 at the drop of a hat. But Doncic is scoring just 28.7 points per game, down from an NBA-best 33.9 from a season ago.
That is in part because he’s having his worst shooting season since his rookie year. He's shooting 45% from the field with a 52.9% effective field goal percentage. Part of that can be credited to dealing with some minor injuries but it still looks like he hasn’t found that highest gear yet and now has to deal with the best defensive team in the NBA.
Oklahoma City leads the league in both defensive rating and opponent effective field-goal percentage.
OKC also has the luxury of throwing several long and athletic defenders at Doncic, from Lu Dort to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. They should hassle the Mavs star all game long.
Not intended for use in MA.
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