The Dallas Mavericks play their second consecutive road game after opening the season with five home games. They’ll travel to Texas Triangle rival Houston.
The Houston Rockets have won three straight, albeit over three teams with losing records. Of course, Dallas has a losing record, too. The Mavs are already playing without Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II. Now, Anthony Davis is out.
With Dallas stripped of most of its stars, the red-hot Rockets are understandably a heavy favorite. Not a problem — my Mavericks vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks expect a ton of points in a Rockets rout.
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Mavericks vs Rockets prediction
Mavericks vs Rockets best bet: Over 224.5 (-115)
The Houston Rockets are an intriguing team when it comes to pace. The Rockets play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA, but if an opponent speeds them up, it seems to throw Houston into its favorite briar patch. The Rockets have won all four of their games that have gone Over the total.
The Dallas Mavericks are likely to fall into the same trap. The Mavs play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league.
Houston’s point totals are boosted by the best 3-point shooting accuracy in the league. The Rockets have hiked their long-range shooting percentage by more than 10 points over last season and are knocking down more than 45% of their 3-point attempts.
Three rotation players — Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, and Josh Okogie — are hitting more than half of their attempts, and another two — Kevin Durant and Reed Sheppard — are over 40%.
That gives Houston a deadly inside-outside attack. In addition to the shooting from three, the Rockets’ two leading scorers are the 6-foot-11 Sengun and Durant. Jabari Smith, who is questionable with an ankle sprain, is the No. 3 scorer and also 6-foot-11. A fourth big — Steven Adams — doesn’t score as much, but he leads the NBA in offensive rebounding.
While the Rockets are the top-rated offense in the NBA, the Mavericks are No. 30. Dallas is in the Top 10 in 3-point defense but is much shakier defending inside.
The Mavs have given up more than 100 points in every game this season, while Houston has topped the century mark on both offense and defense every time out and has scored an average of 134.7 over its winning streak. This one looks headed for a high score.
Mavericks vs Rockets same-game parlay
Steven Adams averages 5.4 offensive rebounds a game, best in the NBA. His overall rebounding average is 9.6, which makes this 6.5-rebound total a head-scratcher, to the point that I was double-checking the injury report to see if I missed something.
He's healthy. He had just five boards in his last game, but has been Over 6.5 in every other game this season. Plus, with Jabari Smith (5.2 rebounds) out or limited with a balky ankle, Adams could be called on to play a bigger role in the post. We’ll take the low-hanging fruit and add Adams to go Over this number.
Mavericks vs Rockets SGP
- Over 224.5
- Rockets -12.5
- Steven Adams Over 6.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Don't let Klay get hot!
The 35-year-old may not be knocking down shots at the same rate as his Splash Brothers heyday, but he’s not done yet. He appears to be shaking off the early-season rust. After making two of his first 11 long-range shots this year, Klay Thompson made five of his next 16. Then, in the last game, against Detroit, he hit season highs in attempts, makes, and accuracy, going 3-for-7 from three.
You know what they say about letting a shooter see a few go in the basket. Look for Thompson to turn his good game into a hot streak.
Mavericks vs Rockets SGP
- Over 224.5
- Rockets -12.5
- Steven Adams Over 6.5 rebounds
- Klay Thompson Over 2.5 threes
Mavericks vs Rockets odds
- Spread: Mavericks +12.5 | Rockets -12.5
- Moneyline: Mavericks +500 | Rockets -700
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Mavericks vs Rockets betting trend to know
In their last 10 head-to-head matchups, the Mavs and Rockets have had four meetings with a spread of -8.5 or longer. The favored team covered in all four games, including a Rockets -12 in March.. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Rockets.
How to watch Mavericks vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, November-XX, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, SCHN |
Mavericks vs Rockets latest injuries
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