Lakers vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Cam Kills Lakers Perimeter

Could the Los Angeles Lakers be getting their act together?

With three straight wins — all sans LeBron James — the Lake Show are taking the first steps in inching back toward the playoff picture, but they'll need to bring their A-games tonight for a road date with the Phoenix Suns.

NBA odds have the Suns tabbed as comfortable favorites for this Tuesday, November 22 TNT showdown, and it will be on L.A. to prove that its recent display of competency is for real. 

Our Lakers vs. Suns NBA picks and predictions let you know who's to be trusted. 

Lakers vs Suns best odds

Lakers vs Suns picks and predictions

Thankfully, unlike last week, the Suns won't be dicking us around with Chris Paul's gameday status and have listed him out for tonight. 

While some folks might think this is a big minus for Phoenix, the reality is that reserve PG Cameron Payne has proven himself over several extended Paul absences to be one of the NBA's better backups, and perhaps generally one of the league's more underrated players. 

Over Paul's current six-game stint on the IL, Payne's averaged 20.16 points, topping tonight's total of 17.5 in four of six contests and falling short by a single point in one of the two misses.

Cam not only pushes the ball at a much faster pace than CP3, but is also more likely to call his own number rather than simply fill the void in the Suns offense. Paul's averaging a (by far) career-low 7.6 shot attempts per game this season, while Payne has shot no fewer than 14 times in the past six games as starter. 

The apparent statistical edge we're being given here is only amplified by the matchup. The Lakers play the league's second-fastest pace, a tempo the Suns are far less likely to lull down without Paul's deliberate stranglehold.

That means more chances for Payne to attack a defense that gives up the league's fourth-most points to opposing PGs. Count on Killa Cam being able to operate under the radar while Patrick Beverley's attention is focused on Devin Booker.

We can also find this number relatively unjuiced, and several factors pointing to Payne having another big night.

My best bet: Cameron Payne Over 17.5 points (-113)

Lakers vs Suns spread analysis

Yes, the Lakers have won three straight, but those wins came over the Nets, Pistons, and Spurs, who are all something between disappointments and abject disasters right now. 

Furthermore, the wins all came at home, which doesn't bode well for an L.A. squad that hasn't covered (0-5) away from Crypto.com Arena this season and now has to face the league's second-best ATS team at home (Phoenix is 7-2 in its own confines). 

As has been their brand the past couple of seasons, the Suns excel on both sides of the ball, ranking in the Top 10 in both offensive (eighth) and defensive (third) efficiency. Behind Booker's perpetual flamethrower act, Phoenix has a diverse cast of supplementary scorers that will be tough for L.A. to simultaneously contain and keep up with. 

The Lakers sit 29th in offensive rating, with their three recent wins coming against the NBA's two worst defenses (Detroit, San Antonio) and a Brooklyn team that's capable of awfulness on any given night. The Lakers are infamously bereft of shooting, and won't have the weapons or ball movement to punish a smart defensive team like the Suns if they clamp down on Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook.

L.A.'s going to have its work cut out for it tonight, and every indication from this Lakers team this season has been to fold under even the slightest adversity. This spread's a tad bigger than we'd like to see, so maybe some over-zealous handle from Lakers stans can push this down to the -6 range before tipoff (a couple books are already dangling -7 or -6.5 as of Tuesday morning).

There's also the factor of LeBron James' status, which would obviously shift the spread in the Lakers' favor were he activated. Reports are quiet coming out of the L.A. beat as of Tuesday morning, and at LeBron's age, with the shape the Lakers are in, who knows what's motivating them. 

Either way, it's more of a lean than a play for me, but the Suns would be it. 

Lakers vs Suns Over/Under analysis

A 226.5 total seems fairly competitive given that these teams average a combined 226.2 points per game. Conversely, they cough up an average of 222.9 to opponents, a number largely buoyed by the Suns' 107.9 mark. 

This game should play out slightly differently, as the Suns are more comfortable adopting the Lakers' breakneck pace without Paul, and have been able to score at a higher clip without him. Phoenix is averaging 119.5 ppg in Paul-less contests, better than its season average of 115.1, which should hold here given the anticipated pace of this matchup. 

I'm wary because of the Lakers offense, and its ability to go frigid at any point, especially against a good defense like the Suns on the road, after pumping its tires against a trio of matador opponents. 

Both of these teams are neutral against totals this season, and there's not a ton inspiring either side of this number. Probably a pass from where I sit. 

Lakers vs Suns betting trend to know

Lakers are 0-5 ATS on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs Suns.

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