What a wild start it has been to the NASCAR betting season.
We’ve seen a 66-1 driver win the Daytona 500 and a 60-1 driver triumph last Sunday on the Daytona road course. Miami-Homestead Speedway will conclude the Florida stretch to start the season—will our NASCAR picks start favoring more long shots?
Find out as Covers Experts' Auto Racing Advisor breaks down the field and the NASCAR odds with his Dixie Vodka 400 betting picks and predictions, with the green flag dropping at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Dixie Vodka 400 favorites: Harvick, Hamlin lead the way
Kevin Harvick (+500)
He was only 26th a year ago, but Harvick still has 12 Top-10 finishes in his last 13 Homestead starts, including 16 of his last 18. Since 2014, he has a Top-4 finish in all but one of the races there.
Denny Hamlin (+500)
He swept both stages and the win last year. He’s off to a great start in 2021, with two Top-5 finishes in as many tries.
Martin Truex Jr. (+650)
Three Top 2s in his last four Homestead tries. Enough said.
Covers NASCAR Betting Content
Dixie Vodka 400 long-shot picks: Reddick's time to shine
Ryan Blaney (+1,600)
He finished third last year, so why not win in 2021? He needs to get his season going and this could be just what the doctor ordered.
Tyler Reddick (+2,000)
This is his race. He was fourth last year and should compete for a win on Sunday. He’s never finished worse than fourth at Homestead.
Aric Almirola (+5,000)
He was fifth here a year ago and has two Top 10s in his last three Homestead starts.
Dixie Vodka 400 fades: Careful on Logano
Joey Logano (+1,000)
Can Logano rebound from last year’s 27th place effort? Logano had five straight Top-6 finishes prior to that, so it's possible. He was in contention to win the first two races this season too but he noted that his car is lacking long-term pace right now. Homestead features a ton of long green flag runs, so you may be able to skip him this week knowing that.
Kyle Busch (+900)
He has six consecutive Top-6 finishes at Homestead, including four in the Top 4, but he also has a new crew chief and this could be a race that the two may have some growing pains.
Dixie Vodka 400 head-to-head pick
Ryan Blaney (+100) vs. Kyle Busch (-134)
Busch does have those six straight Top-6 finishes at Homestead but he did so with Adam Stevens. Homestead takes a lot of adjusting to your car as the race goes on, and he's with a new crew chief in just their third race together. The safe pick is taking the plus money on Ryan Blaney, who finished third in this race last year and has a fast race car more times than not.
Dixie Vodka 400 race preview
How will Sunday’s race look? We’ve got no practice – nor any qualifying – again, and the last time that we held a race during these types of weather conditions on the South Florida race track was all the way back in November 2019. Last year, the race was supposed to be in March but COVID delayed it until June.
Also, what trends will continue? Toyotas have won four of the last six races at Homestead, including two straight, but we're also riding a streak of three straight NASCAR races with first-time winners—will that continue?
Dixie Vodka 400 key stat
NASCAR began using stage breaks in their races in 2017, and since then the eventual race winner of the Cup Series race on this 1.5-mile track has finished in the Top 5 of every stage run.
They’re 8-for-8: Denny Hamlin won last year’s race and swept both stages, Kyle Busch won the year prior and was third and first in the two stages. Joey Logano was victorious in 2018 and was fourth and third, respectively, while Martin Truex Jr. was fifth and second in his win in 2017.