USA vs Colombia World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds - Americans Cruise to Victory

The United States and Colombia battle on the diamond Wednesday in the World Baseball Classic (WBC) at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

Team USA is looking to defend its title from 2017, and it sits at 2-1 in Pool C with a pool-best +9 run differential. At 2-1, the USA is tied with Team Canada, while Colombia enters with a 1-2 record and a -6 run differential.

Team USA wraps up pool play Wednesday, and it can secure its spot in the quarterfinals with a victory over Colombia.

Can the Americans push past Colombia to move on in the tournament, or will Colombia pull off the monumental upset? We’ll discuss in our WBC picks and predictions for USA vs. Colombia on Wednesday, March 15.

USA vs Colombia odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 15, 2023.

USA vs Colombia picks and predictions

Colombia opened with a scintillating 5-4 win in 10 innings over Mexico, and it appeared this was a nation that was ready to make a serious move. Unfortunately for Team Colombia, it fell flat in a 7-5 upset win by Great Britain in the next game.

The red, gold, and blue still had a good opportunity to make noise, but it posted a goose egg against Team Canada last time out, falling 5-0. Now it faces the monumental task of upending Team USA, and the odds are certainly not in Colombia’s favor.

For starters, Colombia will hand the ball to Luis De Avila to kick things off. The 21-year-old comes into this game as a member of the Atlanta Braves' farm system but is yet to make his Major League debut.

De Avila has been solid in the minors — posting a 3.49 ERA in 126 1/3 innings pitched — but now he's up against arguably the greatest lineup ever assembled.

For the Americans, Lance Lynn did a solid job quieting the bats of Team Canada last time out, and now Merrill Kelly gets his opportunity to shine against Colombia, helping the team advance.

Gio Urshela is easily the most recognizable and productive player for the Colombians. Fortunately for Kelly, Urshela has had his issues in this tournament, going 0-for-11 with two walks and two strikeouts. That’s not what Colombia needs if it is going to do the unthinkable.

That doesn't mean it will be totally smooth sailing for the American hurler. Jorge Alfaro leads the way for Colombia with three runs score, and Reynaldo Rodriguez has collected four hits — including one of the team’s two homers — and a team-best four RBI. Oscar Mercado is also humming along with a .300 batting average and .664 OPS..

While all of that is well and good, Colombia isn’t taking down Team USA. Kelly should outshine De Avila in the early going, and the Americans will pick up a victory by multiple runs.

My best bet: Team USA -7.5 (-110 at bet365)

USA vs Colombia moneyline analysis

Team USA has been on fire in this tournament. Five batters are hitting .333 or better, and four different players have ended up hitting homers. With so much star power, everyone is trying to do their part.

J.T. Realmuto has been a driving force for this offense, collecting three hits and driving in a pair of runs. Tim Anderson has also been a star, posting four hits and four RBI in just seven at bats.

Anderson also scooted over to second base to keep his bat in the lineup for Team USA on Monday — something we could conceivably see during the season with the Chicago White Sox — and he and Elvis Andrus have never played anything but shortstop in the majors.

Anderson made Team USA Mark DeRosa look like a genius, too, as the infielder went 2-for-3 with an RBI, triple, and a walk with a run scored. Expect more of the same against Colombia's Luis De Avila.

Team USA has won two games by at least four runs, while falling to Mexico 11-5. It’s been a bit risky to back the Americans in this tournament, as it has covered the run-line just once in three games. However, with everything on the line, look for Team USA to follow up its rout of Canada with another strong outing.

USA vs Colombia Over/Under analysis

The Under cashed in the first game against Great Britain for Team USA, but the Over has cashed in each of the past two games since.

For Colombia, the total has gone high in two of three games to date, going Under only in its shutout loss to Canada last time out.

We should see a healthy number of runs for Team USA, as Colombia’s pitching staff has a 5.33 ERA through three games, while posting a 1.52 WHIP.

Team USA hasn’t been much better on the mound, turning in a 5.04 ERA across 25 IP, while posting a 1.32 WHIP and .275 opponent batting average.

USA vs Colombia game info

USA vs Colombia starting pitchers

Merrill Kelly: Kelly takes the ball for his first start and appearance in the WBC. The Arizona Diamondbacks' starting pitcher had his best season in three-plus years in the majors, posting a 13-8 record with a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while striking out 177 batters across a career-high 200 1/3 IP.

Luis De Avila: De Avila is a 21-year-old lefty in the Braves' farm system who is yet to make his Major League debut. Last year in the minors, he posted a 6-8 record with 129 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings of work.

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