The woes in Gotham City continue as the New York Yankees (60-63) head into Game 3 at home against the Boston Red Sox (65-58) coming off an 8-1 Game 2 loss.
As the BoSox continue to chase the third AL Wild Card spot — where they sit three games back of the Seattle Mariners — they have the opportunity to sweep the Yankees this afternoon after outscoring them 16-4 in the first two games.
While those Damn Yankees have been short on hits during their seven game slide, the Sox are poised to cruise on by behind their bats.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Sunday, August 20.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Red Sox vs Yankees predictions
The Yankees will be putting their trust in their second-most reliable pitcher in Game 3 with Clarke Schmidt taking the mound on Sunday.
In a year of mostly downs for the Evil Empire, the righty has had some good moments, but he’ll have a tough matchup with Boston’s unsung hero… Jarren Duran.
The 26-year-old centerfielder has quietly had a breakout season after initially being called up in 2021. Not only is he second in batting average (.295) for the Red Sox, he also leads the team in doubles (34) and is Top 5 in hits, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
But what’s so special about his matchup in Game 3 with Schmidt? Well, the Yankees pitcher has a deep pitch repertoire that doesn’t include a fastball, nor favor any pitch by a substantial amount over the other.
That can make it tough for finding any one batter that stands out against him. However, Duran is the rare bat that just does that.
Schmidt predominantly uses four pitches: his sweeper (29.2% of the time in 2023), cutter (27.5%), sinker (23.5%), and curveball (18.4%).
Duran has a .333 average against sweepers this year — not too shabby — but that’s not the pitch to get most excited about in this duel. When Schmidt inevitably goes to his cutter — a pitch batters are hitting .308 off this season — that’s when the fireworks happen. The Red Sox centerfielder is smoking it this season with a .440 average and a .560 slugging percentage.
While the cutter is the pitch Duran wants to see, he can’t go wrong against any of Schmidt’s four go-to pitches. He’s batting .333 against sinkers this season and .310 against curveballs with a whopping .655 slugging percentage.
When Schmidt comes out, the relief pitcher due to come in is Michael King… whose go-to pitches are also a sweeper (33.6%) and sinker (29.9%).
My best bet: Jarren Duran Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay
Jarren Duran Over 1.5 total bases
Red Sox moneyline
Yankees Under 4.5 runs
In his last four games, Mariners All-Star Julio Rodríguez has as many hits (17) as the Yankees do as a team in their last four games… all loses.
It’s safe to say the Death Star that is the Yankees is on the cusp of exploding, and the Red Sox are Luke Skywalker flying the X-wing about to pull the trigger.
While they’re somehow still alive in the AL Wild Card race, eight games back, the Yankees don’t look like they’ll turn it around anytime soon.
During their seven game losing streak, they’ve scored more than three runs just once and have 15 total in that span. To really hammer home how bad the scoring drought has been, they’ve scored more than three runs 12 times in 33 games since the return from the All-Star break (they’re 11-21 in those games).
On the other side of it, Boston’s 17-15 record since the return may not be great, but Yankees fans would kill to have more wins than losses at this point.
The Red Sox had a tough stint in late July through early August, but they’ve been grinding since the Toronto Blue Jays swept them. Since that series, they’re 8-4 and on the cusp of delivering the knockout punch to their hated rivals.
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Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
After taking Game 1 as road favorites (between -120 and -130 at most books), the Red Sox flexed their muscles once again in Game 2, but this time as dogs of around +135.
Now entering Game 3 on a Sunday afternoon, it’s opened even at most books and hasn’t shifted much. A few are offering the Red Sox at +100, but many have them around -105 and -110. The Yankees are -110 to -125 across the board.
The total opened anywhere between 8.5 and 9.5 and has bounced around between the two, but most books have it at 9 at this point.
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Trend to know
The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games (+17.05 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, August 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
NESN, YES |
Starting pitchers
Josh Winckowski (3-1, 3.20 ERA): After some tough outings as a rookie last season, the 25-year-old Josh Winckowski has been coming out of the bullpen in 2023. Set to make his first start of the season, he’s done enough in relief this year to inspire some confidence. While he’s coming off one of his worst appearances of the year (three earned runs and just two outs), he’d given up just one earned run in his previous six innings before that in August. His numbers are nothing to write home about this year, but with the way the Yankees have hit lately, this is a good opportunity to show he can start.
Clarke Schmidt (8-7, 4.76 ERA): The 27-year-old Schmidt has been solid, not spectacular, but he’s a steady arm for the Pinstripes in a season where they could use more steadiness. Despite some nice moments in June, July, and early August, Schmidt got shelled the last time he was on the mound. In his defense, the Atlanta Braves tend to do that to pitchers, but he lasted just 2 1/3 innings and gave up a jaw-dropping nine hits and eight earned runs before being pulled. He’s gone at least six innings just three times this season.
