The New York Yankees are heading in the wrong direction with six losses in their last eight games, giving back the momentum they gained in the Mariners series with a loss to Texas on Friday. Can the Rangers stay hot and grab their sixth win in seven games?
Let’s break down Rangers vs. Yankees in our best free MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, June 24.
Rangers vs Yankees odds
Rangers vs Yankees predictions
It’s rarely a good idea to bet on a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, and we’ve got two going on Saturday afternoon in the Bronx. Both Jon Gray and Luis Severino own fly ball rates over 28% and while Gray’s has improved slightly over his last two starts, he’s still posted some unsightly numbers.
The Texas Rangers rank 11th in fly ball rate for the season but second over the past two weeks. It should be getting plenty in the air off of Severino, and with the New York Yankees righty dealing with a high 44.8% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate in the early part of his season, I think a lot should threaten to leave the yard.
On the other side of the coin, we know the Yankees rank third in home run-to-fly ball ratio and sit in the Top 5 for the last two weeks. Gray hasn’t had the struggles with hard-hit balls that Severino has had, but the Yankees are one of the leaders in that department this season. Their walk rate is also stabilizing; New York was down under 5% for the last two weeks entering the weekend but finds itself above 7% for the last 14 days entering Sunday.
The Yankees’ approach is improving and their matchup is solid. The Rangers should have no issues smacking the ball around against Severino, either. This should combine for a lot of home runs in a high-scoring game, and it doesn’t hurt matters that both pitchers have walk rates of 7.7% or higher.
My best bet: Over 9 (+100 at DraftKings)
Rangers vs Yankees same-game parlay
Over 9 (+100)
Yankees moneyline (+120)
Anthony Rizzo to record a hit (-185)
Jon Gray Under 5.5 strikeouts (-134)
This is a little bit of a long shot, but hear me out. First of all, we already covered how this is a poor matchup for both pitchers, but I’m particularly sour on Gray. He allowed six earned runs over 2 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays last time out and struck out just two due to his short outing. I could see another short outing unfolding here with Gray sporting a .400 xSLG entering the day. His xERA is an ugly 4.16 as a result, and the worst part is that he hasn’t even been able to blame most of the troubles on home runs.
Severino has a higher likelihood of having a good game. The sample is still very small and he did have a couple of good outings when he first came off the injured list. If there is one pitcher who is going to succeed, it’s Severino.
Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo owns a strong .327 batting average at home this year and he’s hitting .368 over the last two weeks. He doesn’t have great career numbers against Gray, but the sample size is very small, so you can't put too much stock in it.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Rangers vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Let’s dive a bit deeper into Severino here, since I mentioned above that I thought he would probably have the better start. His fly ball rate did reach a season-low of 20% last time out, and he’s been steadily improving in that area since the first three starts of his campaign.
Severino has also struck out 16 over his last 14 2/3 innings, and may have what it takes to finally punch out some of these Rangers. Texas has been relying on contact with a low 12.7% strikeout rate, but Severino could be the man for the job.
Just 25% of the bets are on the Yankees at DraftKings, and 21% of the money has come in on the home side. The Over has taken on 51% of the bets and a commanding 78% of the money.
The bats of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jake Bauers are beginning to heat up as well, and Anthony Volpe is showing signs of life at the plate. This team has taken a better approach in recent games and has a great chance here.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. American League West opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Yankees
Rangers vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, June 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, YES |
Starting pitchers
Jon Gray (6-2, 2.96 ERA): Gray started off the month of June hot before stumbling with six earned runs on six hits and three walks over 2 1/3 innings last time out against the Blue Jays. His ERA for the month now stands at 3.44.
Luis Severino (0-2, 6.30 ERA): Severino wasn’t the worst version of himself last time out with three earned runs over five frames against Boston, but he still owns an ugly 9.16 ERA in the month of June. This comes after posting a 1.59 ERA in 11 1/3 May innings to start his season.
