Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Production Day

Ohtani Rakes

Have yourself a June, Shohei Ohtani! 

The Los Angeles two-way star is having a great year on the mound, but he is on a ridiculous heater at the plate right now.

In the month of June, Ohtani is hitting .426 with a 1.460 OPS which includes seven home runs, and if you can believe it, he’s been even hotter over the last week. Ohtani is mashing for a .560 average and an eye-popping 1.996 OPS with six dingers over his last seven games.

All I can say, is that I don’t envy Brady Singer tonight, the Kansas City Royals starter who is tasked with trying to slow down the hottest hitter in baseball.

Singer has struggled this season pitching to an expected ERA of 6.00 while surrendering a .289 expected batting average and a .507 expected slugging percentage to opponents. All three marks are in the Bottom 10% of the MLB.

Overall this season, Ohtani is hitting .311 with a 1.029 OPS vs. right-handers this season which is why I’m looking at his hits + runs +RBIs prop tonight.

The number is set at 2.5 which is standard for big production guys, but he has gone Over this number in seven consecutive games, averaging 5 r+h+rbis over that stretch. Ohtani is an absolute monster at the worst of times. But him on a heater is something really scary, and ridiculously fun to watch.

Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 at DraftKings)

Busting Out

Jose Abreu’s tenure with the Houston Astros got off to a rocky start, but the veteran first baseman has looked more like the guy who has been one of the American League’s best run producers and the 2020 MVP since the calendar has flipped over to June.

Abreu is hitting .302 with a .850 OPS with three home runs and 13 RBIs through 13 games this month and I like him to keep swinging a hot stick tonight when he and the Houston Astros host the resurgent Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds are 7-2 since calling up super prospect Elly De La Cruz and tonight they hand the ball to another prospect as Andrew Abbott takes the mound.

Abbott is a left-hander making just his third career start but the first two have gone about as good as a young pitcher could have hoped. He hasn’t allowed a run in 11 2/3 innings on just six hits. That said, he has had issues with command, walking seven batters, and owns an expected ERA is 3.89.

A veteran hitter like Abreu can take advantage of that. On top of that, Abbott throws his fastball more than 54% of the time and Abreu has a .277 xBA vs. fastball this season.

Abreu has gone Over 1.5 total bases five times in his last seven games. At plus money, it’s worth backing Abreu to make it six of eight tonight.

Jose Abreu prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Poor Lourdes

The Arizona Diamondbacks lineup has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. They are a balanced lineup that hits for average, power, and rarely strikes out.

Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and rookie phenom Corbin Carroll are the catalysts of the offense, but they have also gotten a solid contribution from newcomer Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

The former Blue Jay is hitting .285 with a .851 OPS to start the season. But as was with his time in Toronto, Gurriel continues to be a streaky hitter with several peaks and valleys in a season. And right now, he is in a valley.

Gurriel has just one hit in his last 22 plate appearances. He’s got a 0.48 batting average, a .281 OPS, and has struck out eight times over that stretch and I’m betting the cold streak continues tonight when he digs in against Cleveland Guardians starter Triston McKenzie.

McKenzie is making just his third start of the season after a shoulder injury cost him the first two months. McKenzie shut out the Minnesota Twins on one hit while striking out 10 in five innings. His next start didn’t go as well, as the right-hander surrendered five runs on seven hits while striking out five vs. the Houston Astros. 

Overall, we’ve definitely seen flashes of McKenzie returning to his old form and that’s not a good thing for Gurriel. He is one of the few Diamondbacks with more than a handful of at-bats vs. McKenzie from his time in the American League. He is 0-8 in those at-bats. 

Then McKenzie will hand the ball to a very good Guardians bullpen that ranks second in the MLB in ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. 

I like Gurriel to have another 0-fer at the plate tonight and taking the Under on his hits prop is the best way to play it.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. prop: Under 0.5 hits (+170)