Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Betts Can Do Damage vs Canning

Prop bet #1: One good Turner

Something just isn’t right with Sandy Alcantara. The Miami Marlins starter and reigning National League Cy Young winner has struggled in his follow-up campaign.

Alcantara spent the majority of 2022 befuddling opposing hitters, pitching to a 2.90 expected ERA while limiting teams to a 2.15 expected ERA. But repeating that type of performance is tough. The Marlins right-hander owns a much more average 4.22 xERA and a .262 opponent xBA in 2023.

The last four starts have been particularly rough, where Alcantara has a 5.55 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. And he probably isn’t looking forward to seeing the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

The Phillies rocked Alcantara back on April 10, tagging him for nine runs on 10 hits in just four innings of work. Several of Philly’s big bats have great career numbers vs. the Marlins’ starter, including Trea Turner.

Despite it being his first season with the Phillies, Turner has faced off against Alcantara plenty thanks to his time with the Washington Nationals. Like Alcantara, 2023 likely hasn’t gone as planned for Turner with a .250 batting average, but he looks like he is finding his rhythm at the plate.

Turner has collected hits in eight of his last 10 games, good for a .296 average with a .818 OPS over that span. That includes five multi-hit games and four extra-base hits. 

And like I said, he’s done very well in this matchup vs. Alcantara. He is 12-for-30 with two doubles and a homer. That's good for a .337 xBA and a .575 expected slugging percentage. It also includes a 3-for-4 performance in that April 10 meeting.

Turner has gone Over 1.5 total bases five times in the last 10 games. At a +120 price tag, he’s a solid bet to go Over that number here tonight.

Trea Turner prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Prop bet #2: When it rains, it pours

The best series in the final weekend before the MLB All-Star break will take place in Tampa Bay, where the American League-leading Rays will host the National League-leading Atlanta Braves. How’s that for schedule making?

But it gets better. Former Ray Charlie Morton will take the ball against his old teammates in Game 1 of this series. However, Morton probably doesn’t love the matchup.

For starters, Morton is having an inconsistent season for the Braves. The right-hander is pitching to a 4.67 expected ERA while surrendering a .255 expected batting average and a .425 expected slugging percentage to opponents. And all he has to do today is go against a Rays team that is third in OPS and leads the MLB in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.

Part of the reason for Morton’s inconsistency has been a lack of command. The right-hander currently has a 10% walk rate, which already ranks in the 27th percentile, but it’s been even worse lately. That walk rate bumps up to 11.6% over his last seven starts.

Despite the struggles, Morton is still facing a lofty 24.7 batters per start over that stretch, which means the Braves are giving him a reasonable leash. And that gives us some value in his walks allowed market.

While the number is a high 2.5, at an 11.6 walk rate vs. 24.7 batters works out to 2.87 walks. And with the Rays being a solid team at drawing free passes, ranking eighth in walk rate vs. righties, at +140 there is some value on the Over here. Morton has gone Over this number in five of his last seven starts.

Charlie Morton prop: Over 2.5 walks allowed (+140)

Prop bet #3: Betts in show

While he may not be in the conversation for “Best Player in Baseball” anymore, Mookie Betts still isn’t that far off. And he’s one of the hottest hitters in the MLB as we approach the All-Star break. Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to stay hot when they welcome the crosstown-rival Los Angeles Angels to Dodger Stadium.

Betts, who will be participating in this year’s Home Run Derby, has been a massive run producer this season. The former MVP is hitting .271 with a .930 OPS, which includes 23 dongs and 57 RBIs. And if you can believe it, Betts has kicked it up a notch. 

The Dodgers’ outfielder is hitting .444 with a 1.578 OPS over his last eight games. That includes 10 extra-base hits. He’s also struck out twice in 37 plate appearances over that span. Talk about being locked in. And I love his chances of staying locked in vs. Griffin Canning tonight.

Canning does an OK job of limiting contact, but when he does get hit, he gets hit hard. The right-hander ranks in the ninth percentile in average exit velocity, the 13th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and the 44th in opponent-expected slugging percentage.

Canning also has some reverse splits, as right-handed hitters have been able to do more damage against him to the tune of a .245 average and a .756 OPS. And while it may be a small sample size, Betts is 1-for-3 in his career vs. Canning with, you guessed it, one double.

Canning will also eventually hand the ball off to a struggling Angels bullpen that ranks 24th in xFIP and 19th in strikeouts per nine innings.

You can still get Betts to go Over 1.5 total bases at plus money, a number he has gone Over in six of his last eight games.

Mookie Betts prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)