MLB Odds: 5 MLB Futures Bets To Lock In Before Opening Day 2024

Opening Day kicks off this Thursday and that means calling in sick to work/school and getting those last-second future bets in.

This year as I break down the MLB odds and I'm looking at some win totals of teams nobody is giving a chance to, fading Ronald Acuna Jr. on the bases, betting on Bo, and capping it off with a +8,000 long shot that could have some legs. 

Here are my five MLB future bets to lock in before Opening Day.

Five best MLB future bets

Bobby Witt Jr. to lead the league in stolen bases (+1,100 at bet365)

Ronald Acuna Jr. swiped 73 bags last year which is a modern-day record on 87 attempts. Every book has him as the betting favorite to do it again this year but at +150 odds, there is no way I’m hitting that Over.

He could certainly be scaled back this year as he is one year older and the risk of injury is not worth it after already setting so many records last year. His bat is more valuable to this lineup. The price is also awful in a market known to cause injuries to base stealers. 

I want no part in Eustery Ruiz either at +275 as he could hit ninth in the order and struggles to get on base. His .309 on-base percentage was hard on the eyes and his 4% walk rate ranked in the bottom 2% of baseball. He is an elite base-stealer, but you need to get on base to do that and at +275, it isn’t worth it. 

I’m more interested in someone like Bobby Witt Jr. who is projected to get a ton of at-bats hitting in an offense that was one of the most aggressive base-stealing teams in baseball last year at 1.3 SB attempts per game. That was the second most in baseball in 2023.

THE BAT is projecting 47 swipes for Witt which is six fewer than Acuna, but at that price and with the variance and risk of injury involved in the stat, the +1,100 price tag is tough to pass up.  

Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. to lead the league in stolen bases (+1,100 at bet365)

Oakland Athletics Over 56.5 wins (-110 at bet365)

Derek Carty released the Oakland Athletics Over 56.5 wins live on MLB Prop Picks Powered by THE BAT X and it’s easy to agree with him.

The A’s are coming off a 50-win season but there is some reason to like the Over and why THE BAT X is projecting 67 wins, 

First off, this might not be the worst team in baseball. This is a wildly young team with no member of the starting lineup over 31 years old. It’s also a decent pitching staff which includes Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, JP Sears, and Paul Blackburn. That is not a bad Top 4 in terms of starting pitching. 

With bad team win total Overs, losing players at the deadline is also something bettors should account for but because this team has so much young talent under team control, there are not a lot of pieces the A’s can ship off later in the Summer. 

This number is creeping up and is three wins lower than last year despite arguably a better roster.

Pick: Oakland Athletics Over 56.5 wins (-110 at bet365)

Bo Bichette to lead the league in hits (+1,100 at DraftKings)

Bo Bichette missed a few games last year and still finished with over 600 at-bats which is the number to target when betting for a total hits leader. The Toronto Blue Jays SS hit a career-best .306 last year and finished ninth in total hits with 175. If he can hit that 155-plus game mark this year as he did in his previous two seasons and approach 670 or higher at-bats, getting him to lead baseball in hits at +1,000 is a decent play. 

Ronald Acuna is the reigning champ and projects to lead the league again, but an early knee injury is problematic and if it drags on, he could see some breaks during the year. His team is also expected to run away with the division so a loss of at-bats late in the year is possible. 

Luis Arraez had a high BABIP last year and of the Top-10 hits leaders, Bichette’s 0.291 hits per plate appearance was right up there with Acuna’s rate. 

If Acuna is healthier than suggested, his +900 at bet365 is a great play as it is +650 at DraftKings, but Bichette at +1,100 at DraftKings is my preferred choice. It’s a market that needs the luck of health and with hopefully more ABs coming and the Jays moving the order better than they did last year, the chance to finish Top 3 in PAs and hit .300 has me loving this play.

Pick: Bo Bichette to lead the league in hits (+1,100 at DraftKings)

Lane Thomas Under 22.5 home runs (-120 at DraftKings)

Washington Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas came out of nowhere to hit 28 home runs last year and saw massive spikes in his power metrics. It’s no surprise that most projections are down on the middle-of-the-order hitter heading into this year and that could make his Under 22.5 home runs a profitable future bet. 

THE BAT X is projecting just 19 long balls for the Nat. All projections call for a drop in his BABIP, wOBA, and slugging. This is a batter that is striking out at 25% on the year with poor plate discipline metrics including an increasing O-zone sw%. 

Lots of fantasy players want this to be a 30-HR guy but I’m betting that last year was the exception and that even at a full 150-plus games, the Under 22.5 is the right side at -120. 

This is also expected to be one of the worst offenses in baseball which correlates to fewer times through the order and spots where opposing pitchers can have less stressful at-bats vs. Thomas.

Pick: Lane Thomas Under 22.5 home runs (-120 at DraftKings)

Kyle Schwarber to lead the league in RBI (+8,000 at bet365)

How about a real longshot to bring it home and that’s Kyle Schwarber to lead the league in RBI. 

This is a player who is the No.4 betting favorite to lead the league in home runs and a lead-off hitter who had 104 RBI last season. He's projected to finish second with 109 RBI this year by THE BAT X and is paying +8,000 to pace the league.

The knock on Schwarber is that he is a lead-off hitter and has fewer at-bats with runners in scoring position. This is true, but it is also the floor. If skipper Rob Thomas decides to move Schwarber to No.2 or elsewhere in the lineup, the lefty-hitter would instantly be near the betting favorites. 

Bryson Stott would make a great fit at the top of the order so it’s not like the pieces aren’t there. If Schwarber slid to the No.2 spot, those RBI totals could hit 110-plus. 

He has all the skills to lead the league in the stat but opportunity is the only thing holding him back. Not many other players in the +5,000 to +8,000 range can say the same thing. Move this guy down the order Topper and let me win a big one. DraftKings is as low as +4,000. 

Pick: Kyle Schwarber to lead the league in RBI (+8,000 at bet365)

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