The Chicago Cubs head to the West Coast to face off against the San Diego Padres on Friday night. This is the first contest in a four-game set at Petco Park, with both teams looking to turn around their disappointing seasons.
MLB betting odds opened with the Friars installed as -160 home favorites, with the Over/Under at 8.5. Here are my best free Cubs vs. Padres MLB picks and predictions for June 2.
Cubs vs Padres odds
Cubs vs Padres predictions
The Cubs began this season producing at the plate, but their mediocre analytics suggested that regression was on the horizon. That regression hit last month, with the Cubs averaging just 3.64 runs per game in May and ranking 24th in the majors in OPS (.694).
Now they travel across the country to pitcher-friendly Petco Park, where the Padres are sending veteran Michael Wacha to the hill. Wacha is coming off a terrific month where he pitched to a sizzling 0.84 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP across five starts.
The Padres have a strong bullpen behind him as well, with their relievers ranking fifth in the majors in ERA (3.28) and second in WHIP (1.19).
Expect another low-scoring performance by the Cubs, and take the Under 3.5 on their total runs.
My best bet: Cubs team total Under 3.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
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Cubs vs Padres moneyline analysis
Both of these teams are sitting below .500, with the Cubs having a 24-31 record, while the Padres are 26-30. However, the Cubbies entered this season with modest expectations (O/U of 77.5 on their win total), while the Friars were projected to be contenders (O/U 93.5 wins).
A big reason for San Diego's early-season struggles has been their play at the dish.
With the Padres featuring a lineup with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Juan Soto, they should be one of the best-hitting teams in the majors. Instead, they rank just 23rd in OPS (.699), with Machado currently on the IL and Bogaerts in the midst of a slump after slugging just .263 in May.
The Cubs have been the more productive team at the plate over the course of the entire season with an OPS of .745. However, that number is buoyed by a sizzling .804 OPS in April, and plummeted to just .694 last month.
Chicago will be sending struggling righthander Jameson Taillon to the hill today. Taillon had been solid with the Yankees over the last two years but has gone winless in eight starts this season while pitching to an 8.04 ERA and an OBA of .313.
The Friars have gotten much better performances from Wacha, who made the All-Star game as a 23-year-old with the Cardinals back in 2015. While he has never recaptured that magic, he pitched to a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox last year, and has a 3.45 ERA in 10 starts this season.
Cubs vs Padres Over/Under analysis
While I like the Under on the Cubs' team total, I'm staying away from the full game total because of how unreliable both Taillon and the Padres offense has been.
Taillon isn't as bad as his 8.04 ERA would suggest, but the fact that his expected ERA (5.61), expected opponent batting average (.286), and barrel rate all rank in the bottom 15th percentile indicates that he's still pretty awful.
That said, the Padres' offense has been terrible as well, especially at home, where they average just 3.48 runs per game. The run-suppressing venue at Petco Park doesn't help, but they haven't been making good contact either and rank just 24th in the majors in hard hit rate.
It's tough to project who will come out on top in a battle between Taillon and this struggling Padres lineup, so we'll focus on the Cubs' team total instead.
Cubs vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, June 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (0-3, 8.04 ERA): Taillon has made eight starts this season and has only pitched effectively in one of them. In five starts last month, he had a woeful 10.90 ERA with a WHIP of 1.96.
Michael Wacha (5-1, 3.45 ERA): Wacha had a few rough starts earlier in the year but has caught on fire over the last month. In five starts since the beginning of May, Wacha has pitched to a 0.84 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 10-1 in San Diego's last 11 games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres
