Cubs vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Chicago Solves New York Starter in Short Order

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets will wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday night. The two teams split the first pair of games, with the Cubs winning narrowly last night and the Mets winning large the night before.

Chicago is amidst a hotly contested playoff battle in the National League for the final Wild Card spot. They are tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the final spot, getting the nod because of the advantage in the season series. The Mets' season ended a while back now, and they are playing for pride after being one of the biggest disappointments in baseball.

Read on for my best bet, MLB odds analysis, and full MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Mets on Wednesday, August 9.

Cubs vs Mets odds

Cubs vs Mets predictions

On Monday, I wrote about how much more critical this series was for the Cubs than for the Mets. With that logic, I presumed that New York had little interest in fighting this season and would be a reasonably easy team to beat, especially if you got an early lead on them. I was wrong, as the Mets blew out Chicago in Game 1, then was a whisker away from taking two straight last night. 

However, I'm rolling with the Cubs again. This time the situational aspects factor in minimally. 

Let's get a few particulars out of the way that are worth mentioning. My projections have the Cubs as -140 favorites in this spot. That's a significant edge. So substantial that I paused to check and make sure everything was right.

Secondly, while I mentioned that the situational aspects are minimal here, one part sticks out. That's the fact that the Cubs are winning more of the final games of the series than the Mets. In such metrics, Chicago sits 52% on the season, while New York is around 43%, a difference that is significantly noteworthy this late in the season. It also doesn't hurt that the Cubs have won seven of the last 10 games when these two teams have met. 

The most significant aspect in this game that pushed me to the Cubs, though? It's simple — the pitching mismatch. 

David Peterson will take the mound tonight for the Mets, and it's likely he only goes three or four innings. He is still working his way back from injury and is certainly priced as a pitcher that will be on a pitch count. That factored significantly into keeping this best bet to the first five markets.

With that in mind, though, we'll likely get a rough start from Peterson. He's been a candle this season, and the metrics behind him speak to just that.

What stands out the most in this matchup is an expected batting average near the bottom of all qualified pitchers. That's a significant issue when facing a team such as the Cubs, who have been the best offense in baseball since the All-Star break. They have the fifth-highest BABIP in baseball on the season and the second-best mark over the last 30 days. That's an issue when facing a pitcher that gives up so much contact.

As if that's not enough, the Cubs have done quite well against left-handed pitching, which they'll see tonight. It's slightly dropped from their season average, but the metrics are fine. They have the eighth-highest BABIP in baseball against lefties and the fifth-highest wRC+, slightly up from their numbers against righties. However you slice it, this Cubs team is poised to rake against Peterson, especially considering that they've been a bit down over the last two games. 

We'll talk more about Kyle Hendricks opposing Peterson below, but all we need from him is a steadying performance, and there's plenty of reason to think that will happen. Back the Cubs to a strong start tonight behind an offense that should break out of a slight slumber. 

My best bet: Cubs F5 moneyline (+104 at FanDuel)

Cubs vs Mets same-game parlay

Cubs F5 three-way moneyline

Cubs TT Over 4.5

Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases

+500 at bet365

bet365 requires you to take a stand with my first five best bet. To use it in a same-game parlay, you must use it as a three-way moneyline that allows for no pushes. I still see around a 2% edge at their current number, so I'm fine with using it to start things off in this same-game parlay.

I then paired it with the Cubs team total Over 4.5. This offense is too good to stay down like it has in the series, with three runs and two runs over the last two games, respectively. I spoke a ton about Peterson above, so I don't need to do it here, but the synopsis is that he gives up a ton of contact, and the Cubs score runs when they connect with the ball. It also doesn't hurt that it will be hot and breezy in Citi Field tonight, which should help improve ball carry.

I'm rolling with Cody Bellinger to Over 1.5 total bases at an attractive price to shut things down here. It's been nice to see Bellinger have such a career renaissance this season. He's gone Over 1.5 bases in seven of his last 10 games, 20 of his previous 30, and has a great matchup this evening. He's 12th in baseball this season in ISO against left-handed pitching. I give a hot hand an excellent chance to continue getting things done, especially with such a good matchup. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Hendricks has had an up-and-down season so far for the Cubs, but he can offer a stabilizing force in this matchup today. 

The skill set for Hendricks this season that's been on display the most is inducing soft contact. His hard-hit rate is one of the league's lowest, followed by an average exit velocity that's even better.

This Mets lineup has a few big bats, but for the most part, they aren't a team that will put excessive barrels on the ball. New York has the ninth-lowest solid contact rating in the league and an average hard-hit rate. A few soft-contact teams have blown up Hendricks, but this is mostly when he's had better performances. Take his start against the Washington Nationals, who have the third-lowest solid contact rating in baseball, for example. He allowed just one earned run in six innings against them on July 19.

The Cubs should not need a fantastic performance from Hendricks tonight, given the pitching matchup they'll face. I expect them to need a solid one, and they'll get it. I also expect it sends them to the lead after five innings, and eventually after nine innings.

As far as things are considered for the total, I don't have much of a lean either way. My projection aligns directly with the current total, and my handicap says mostly the same. With that in mind, it's worth taking note of a few trends to see if it points in any direction, and they do.

Five of the last eight games between these two teams have gone Under. In addition, two consecutive starts by Hendricks have also gone Under. Even though I can't trust these pitchers on the mound enough to lock in a play on the Under, there's undoubtedly one direction the trends are pointing.

Trend to know

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets

Cubs vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Kyle Hendricks (4-6, 4.09 ERA): The season for Hendricks has been up-and-down, but in totality, you could call it successful. A year ago, it looked like it was time for Hendricks to hang it up. He finished that season posting a career-high 4.80 ERA with an expected ERA above 5.00. He's bounced back this year, and although the strikeout numbers haven't followed, he's found ways to induce soft contact and eat up innings.

He sits in the league's Top 10% of hard-hit rate and the Top 15% of exit velocity. The occasional home run has been an issue, but beyond that, getting batters to chase pitches at a high clip and inducing ground balls at a slightly above-average rate has served him well. He comes into this one off a shelling against the Atlanta Braves, where he allowed seven earned runs in four innings. 

David Peterson (3-7, 5.65 ERA): In his four seasons in the majors, Peterson has seen an enormous seesaw from year to year in his performances. Knowing that it shouldn't surprise anyone that he's in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career after having one of his best.

Peterson has been unlucky this season, but you can't run too far from the story: a 5.63 ERA is quite troubling. It's worse when paired with poor metrics highlighted by an expected average that in the Bottom 20% of baseball. Peterson made his first start in over a month against the Baltimore Orioles and was limited, as he went three scoreless innings.

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