The Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game set at Fenway Park on Friday night. Boston's pitching staff has been one of baseball's biggest surprises this years and my Brewers vs. Red Sox predictions for today expect those arms to impress again.
Here are my MLB picks for this interleague showdown on Friday, May 24.
Brewers vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Brewers team total Under 4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers are third in the majors in runs per game (4.98) and fifth in OPS (.748), but I don't see them having much offensive success tonight. Keep in mind that those numbers dip to 4.79 and .720, respectively, on the road and that the Brewers are currently missing one of their top power hitters in Rhys Hoskins.
Milwaukee's statcast analytics also suggest regression with the Brewers being 10th in the majors in hard -hit rate and exit velocity while ranking 15th in barrel rate.
The Boston Red Sox are sending Kutter Crawford to the mound today. Crawford is enjoying a breakout season, pitching to a 2.17 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP through 10 starts. While he's due for some regression, the fact that his hard-hit rate sits in the Top 12th percentile and his expected ERA is at 3.21 bodes well for his long-term success.
Boston also has a strong bullpen behind Crawford with their relievers sitting sixth in the majors in ERA at 3.45 and second in WAR at 2.5.
Brewers vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers team total Under 4.5
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 hits
Bryse Wilson Over 1.5 walks
Christian Yelich isn't the elite hitter he was earlier in his career but he has still produced when healthy. He's batting .306 in 23 games this year with an xBA of .317.
Lefties like Yelich also tend to thrive with the dimensions at Fenway, and he'll have the platoon advantage against the right-handed Crawford. In addition, backing him to get a hit while fading the Brewers on their runs scored creates a nice correlated multiplier for this SGP.
The Brewers are starting Bryse Wilson, who has a 2.79 ERA but his xERA is much higher at 4.94. Wilson was primarily a reliever until injuries forced him into the rotation. While he's done a good job, his control has been awful. In his last five starts, he has walked a whopping 14 batters.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Red Sox odds
Brewers vs Red Sox live odds
Brewers vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-180) | Boston -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +110 | Boston -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-125) | Under 8.5 (+105)
Brewers vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox moneyline price has shifted slightly from -130 to -135 but the total has seen significant movement, ticking up from 8.5 to 9.5.
- The Brewers are atop the NL Central with a 28-21 record but have gone just 2-4 to begin their road trip.
- The Red Sox have won four games in a row to improve to 26-24 on the season.
- The Red Sox are 12th in the majors in runs/game (4.50) and eighth in OPS (.721), but those numbers dip to 4.04 and .693, respectively, at home.
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Brewers vs Red Sox trend
The Under is 24-14 in Boston's last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Red Sox
Brewers vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 5-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Bryse Wilson (2-1, 2.79 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (2-2, 2.17 ERA) |
Brewers vs Red Sox latest injuries
Brewers vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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