Mixed martial arts icon Ronda Rousey is a huge favorite in her first MMA fight since 2016 against former fighter-turned-actress Gina Carano.
Rousey is a -600 outright favorite at BetMGM to win the bout.
Key Takeaways
- Rousey’s odds translate to a 85.7% implied chance to win on Saturday.
- Rousey and Carano have been out of MMA for a combined 27 years.
- Francis Ngannou is the largest favorite of the entire event.
The Rousey-Carano bout is the main event of a jam-packed MVP MMA 1 fight card, which will be live-streamed on Netflix on Saturday. Odds haven’t changed since opening, with Rousey sitting at -600 and Carano at +425 at the time of writing.
Discover the story behind the biggest women’s fight in MMA history when Countdown: Rousey vs. Carano premieres on May 6.#RouseyCarano
— Netflix (@netflix) May 5, 2026
Saturday, May 16
9 PM ET | 6 PM PT
LIVE only on Netflix pic.twitter.com/LzdWhIIIKj
Although neither fighter has been in the cage in at least a decade, oddsmakers are confident in Rousey’s ability to pull out a victory.
"Ronda Rousey is a big favorite because she is younger, has competed more recently, and faced more well-rounded competition during her prime,” said Alex Rella, BetMGM Sportsbook Trading Manager. “Rousey lost her last two fights, so people forget how dominant she was with nine of her victories coming in less than a minute.”
It didn’t take long for Rousey to become a star in MMA. After becoming the first American woman to win an Olympic medal in judo by claiming the Bronze in Beijing, she put herself on an all-time trajectory by beginning her MMA career 12-0.
Her fighting career came to a screeching halt in 2016 after she suffered consecutive losses to Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes and pursued new passions, including WWE and acting. She became the first female fighter to be inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame in 2016.
Ronda Rousey: What made me exceptional as a martial artist is my grasp of martial arts. Everything that I did in the cage was unprecedented and witty and really smart...Like, people compared me to Mike Tyson, but it wasn't that I was so much stronger or bigger or faster than… pic.twitter.com/I6H23AYJUD
— Jed I. Goodman © (@jedigoodman) May 12, 2026
On the other side, Carano, one of the most popular female fighters in the 2000s, had a 7-1 career record. She won the first-ever sanctioned women’s fight in Nevada against Rosi Sexton and headlined the first major MMA event featuring female fighters, where she endured her only career loss.
She retired from MMA in 2009 and transitioned to acting, appearing in Deadpool, Fast & Furious 6, and The Mandalorian, among other films and shows.
While Rousey is the heavy favorite, Carano is drawing much more interest from bettors. She claimed 94% of bets and 92% of money wagered, according to BetMGM.
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Main card fights and betting odds
The Rousey-Carano fight will cap off an evening preceded by multiple high-profile contests, including one involving the most feared man in recent MMA history.
Francis Ngannou is getting back in the octagon after a brief detour to the world of boxing, where he lost to Tyson Fury and was knocked out by Anthony Joshua.
Back on familiar territory, the former UFC Heavyweight Champion and current PFL Super Fights Heavyweight Champion is an enormous -2500 favorite in the Netflix MVP MMA odds against Brazilian Philipe Lins, who is the largest underdog on the card +1050.
Squatting 3x the heavyweight limit 😅#NgannouLins pic.twitter.com/hORQP58iJB
— Francis Ngannou (@francis_ngannou) May 5, 2026
UFC mainstay Nate Diaz and top-ranked challenger in Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship, Mike Perry will also come to blows in the first fight of what has been dubbed a “triple main event.” Perry is a -200 favorite over Diaz, who hasn’t competed in MMA since 2022.
The full fight card is as follows.
Main Card (9 p.m. ET, Netflix)
- Women’s featherweight: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
- Heavyweight: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
- Welterweight: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
- Featherweight: Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenny Cross
- Heavyweight: Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne
- Catchweight: Adriano Moraes vs. Phumi Nkuta
Preliminary Card (6 p.m. ET, Netflix)
- Welterweight: Jason Jackson vs. Jeff Creighton
- Welterweight: Namo Fazil vs. Jake Babian
- Featherweight: David Mgoyan vs. Albert Morales
- 130-pound catchweight: Aline Pereira vs. Jade Masson-Wong
- 165-pound catchweight: Chris Avila vs. Brandon Jenkins
How to bet, watch Rousey-Carano
BetMGM and other top online sportsbooks have betting odds in an array of markets for Saturday’s fights. That includes fighter moneylines, total rounds, method of victory, if the fight will go to the judges, and more.
The event will take place at the Intuit Dome, home of the Los Angeles Clippers, in Los Angeles, California. Preliminary fights will begin at 6 p.m. ET, and the six-fight main card will begin around 9 p.m.
